Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
New Orleans offense vs. Atlanta defense
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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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12
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Pass
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16
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Tot. Yds.
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11
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Scoring
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23
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Int's allowed
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16
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Sacks allowed
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20
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ATLANTA DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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26
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vs. Pass
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7
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Total yds. allowed
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16
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# of Ints.
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8
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# of Sacks
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27
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Turnover differential
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-11
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The Saint offense sputtered last week against Jacksonville, with only 12 points -- all on Doug Brien field goals. The absence of RB Ricky Williams hurt the team, as well as the absence of QB Billy Joe Tolliver, who, before going down for three games with a torn MCL, was playing pretty well. The team is unsure whether Williams will play this week, but will take its time bringing him back because they mortgaged the future to get him. In relief of Williams is RB Lamar Smith, a solid cutback runner, but not the big play threat that a healthy Williams is.
In this game, the Saints need to use TE Cam Cleeland's vertical speed to stretch the defense down the middle of the field. Cleeland, when playing at 100%, can beat just about any LB in football, so look for back-up QB Billy Jo Hobert to rely on Cleeland heavily this week. On the ground, the Saints should find some success running the football against the 26th ranked run defense in the NFL. Smith is most effective when he is running in space, so look for New Orleans to run some counters to get the Atlanta defense headed in the opposite direction.
The Falcons have done pretty well this season defending the pass -- and this bodes well against a Saint team that, absent Ricky Williams, will be forced to put the ball up more often. To force New Orleans to do so, the Falcons must improve their run defense. The undersized front four needs to do a better job of stacking at the point of attack to free up the linebackers to make plays.
The Falcon linebackers should not be too aggressive defending the run, however, as New Orleans TE Cleeland seems to be returning to form after missing much of the season with an injury. LOLB Henry Crockett will be given the responsibility of covering Cleeland, often with help from one of his safeties, and this could leave the Falcons corners in single coverage on the Saints' outside receivers. LDC Ray Buchanan and RDC Ronnie Bradford have the skills to play man coverage against the Saints receivers, but should keep a close eye on WR Keith Poole, who, although he is undersized, has deep speed and is capable of stretching the defense.
Expect the Atlanta corners to give Poole and WR Eddie Kennison sizeable cushions, forcing New Orleans QB Hobert to throw the ball underneath and compelling the Saints' receivers to make catches in traffic. With New Orleans' deep speed, Atlanta will miss SS Marty Carter, who was quietly having a fine season providing helping the cornerbacks over the top.
Atlanta offense vs. New Orleans defense
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DETROIT OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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30
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Pass
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15
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Tot. Yds.
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25
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Scoring
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30
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Int's allowed
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12
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Sacks allowed
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42
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NEW ORLEANS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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24
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vs. Pass
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14
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Total yds. allowed
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15
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# of Ints.
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9
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# of Sacks
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33
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Turnover differential
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-3
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The Falcons' running game was effective last week, totaling 64 yards on just 15 carries (4.3 avg.), but falling behind early forced them to abandon the run. RB Ken Oxendine, who is now receiving the bulk of the carries, has been more aggressive the past couple of weeks and the Saints always have to be aware of his presence in the passing game out of the backfield.
Atlanta's offensive line is having a horrendous year protecting QB Chris Chandler and needs to step up this week against one of the better pass-rushing units in the NFL. That means veteran LOT Bob Whitfield needs to contain New Orleans' RDE Brady Smith, who is having a breakout year. Smith has always been able to get after the QB and has markedly improved his play against the run.
If Chandler has time to throw the football, he has a deep threat in WR Tim Dwight, and a reliable WR in Terrence Mathis for the underneath routes. Atlanta will look to give the dangerous Dwight as many touches as possible so expect to see more creative looks, similar to how he was used out of the backfield last week. The Falcons should focus on the short, rhythmic passing game to protect Chandler and move the football, because New Orleans should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Run defense, the Saints' Achilles heal, is unlikely to be exposed against the Falcons, the 30th ranked running team in the NFL. New Orleans defensive coordinator Zaven Yaralian won't try to do anything fancy against the Falcons, as his front seven should be able to shut down an anemic Falcon running game.
RDE Brady Smith and RDT Laroi Glover should be effective against the left side of the Atlanta offensive line. Glover is not the strongest run defender, but excels by using his quickness and penetrating skills at the point of attack to disrupt opposing offense's backfields. Glover will be matched up against Atlanta LOG Bob Hallen, and needs to beat him with his first move to avoid being pushed around at the line of scrimmage.
LDC Ashley Ambrose will probably be left in single coverage for much of the day against Atlanta WR Mathis, who is a reliable pass catcher on the underneath routes, but who lacks the speed to beat New Orleans' secondary deep. The Saints will then roll coverage, most likely SS Willie Clay to WR Dwight's side of the field to prevent him from getting behind the defense.
New Orleans also needs to pressure Atlanta QB Chandler, who is effective when given enough time. If the Saints can force Chandler to throw on the run, he should have difficulty finding his receivers.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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NEW ORLEANS
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ATLANTA
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Punt return avg.
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24
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22
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Kickoff return avg.
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21
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26
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Opp. punt return avg.
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8
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1
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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23
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29
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Time of possession
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6
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25
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Falcons' KOR Tim Dwight is one of the most dynamic return men in the league, but hasn't had a great year to this point. Dwight can be neutralized when kick coverage guys stay in their lanes and force Dwight to make a cut or two after getting the ball in his hands. It is when Dwight gets a head of steam and is running north / south that he is truly dangerous. New Orleans had better improve over last week's performance, when its kick coverage unit gave up 160 yards on four first half kick off returns against the Rams. Atlanta K Morton Andersen is in the twilight of his career and is not getting his kickoffs deep enough, which allows opposing offenses consistently good field position. Atlanta's top-rated punt cover team should neutralize Saints' PR Eddie Kennison, who is having an average season at best.
Key matchups
Saints Defensive Line vs. Falcons QB Chris Chandler...
The key to beating Atlanta is always getting pressure on Chris Chandler. He is a very brittle QB and cannot take a lot of hits. The New Orleans defensive line does a decent job of attacking the quarterback and they will put pressure on Chandler all day with their pass rush.
Falcons WR Terrance Mathis vs. Saints DC Ashley Ambrose...
Mathis is the absolute "go to" guy in the passing game, and although Ambrose is a good cover corner, the Saints will likely use a lot of double-teams on Mathis, which could free up the other Falcon WR Tim Dwight. If Ambrose can get away with single coverage on Mathis, it really gives the Saints a lot of flexibility in the secondary and their coverage schemes.
Atlanta Defensive Line vs. New Orleans Run Game...
The Atlanta DL has been banged up all year, but they face a New Orleans run game with RB Ricky Williams, who is listed as questionable. These are the two key units in the game and whoever wins this battle will likely control the game. Atlanta DL coach Bill Kollar does a great job of motivating his guys in the trenches, and even though they are in the midst of a nightmare season, they will try to wear down Ricky Williams or his backup.
New Orleans will win if...
RB Ricky Williams is healthy and gives the Saints a ball-control run game. The only way that New Orleans can win a game is for Williams to control the ball on the ground and eat up the clock. If the Saints are forced to throw the football, they are in big trouble. A healthy Ricky who has a 100+ yard rushing day gives the Saints a chance to wear down a struggling Atlanta defense.
Their defense can blitz QB Chris Chandler and play a very physical game. The Saints must get to Chris Chandler with the blitz and the pass rush. He is a poised veteran QB who will stay in the pocket, but he is also very brittle and cannot take a lot of punishment. They need to get some good hits on him early to force him to get rid of the ball and hopefully make some bad decisions. If he has time to sit in the pocket and let his receivers finish their routes, the Saints could be in big trouble.
They don't turn the ball over. This Saints offense has very little margin for error and they must play mistake-free football to have a chance to win. They cannot afford to fumble or throw INT's and give Chris Chandler and the Falcons a short field to work with. Ball control and takeaways/giveaways are critical stats in this game.
Atlanta will win if...
The Falcon OL can protect QB Chris Chandler. The Falcons OL has struggled to protect Chandler most of the season, but he is the key to their offensive success. New Orleans has nothing to lose and they may gamble with a lot of blitzes. It is imperative that not only the OL, but also the backs, pick up the blitz and don't allow Chandler to get a lot of free hits.
Their DL can stop the Saints run game and make them one-dimensional. The best way to beat the Saints is to load up versus Ricky Williams and the run game and force New Orleans to throw the football with either Billy Joe. A one-dimensional Saints passing attack is an invitation for Atlanta to "tee off" in their pass rush. Look for the Falcons to put "8 in the box" and single cover the wide receivers, inviting New Orleans to throw the football.
They win the battle of field position and takeaways/giveaways. In what looks like a very close and low-scoring contest, it is very important to take care of the football and make the Saints earn their points by driving the length of the field. Atlanta cannot afford to turn the ball over and give the Saints easy scoring chances and keep them in this game. They must capitalize themselves on every scoring opportunity and play mistake-free football.
The War Room edge
These are two teams that can't wait for the 1999 season to end after high hopes heading into the season. Neither is very explosive, and at this point in the season, it may really come down to who wants it the most, as corny as that sounds. To their credit, both of these teams appear to be playing hard and physical, but Atlanta still has a fairly dangerous passing attack with Chris Chandler and Terrance Mathis, and one or two big plays in the vertical passing game may be all that they need. This may not go down in NFL history as an all-time classic game, but the Falcons should be able to win this one at home.
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