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Wednesday, December 1
War Room: Jets at Giants


Jets offense vs. Giants defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 1
Pass 30
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 32
   
GIANTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 11
vs. Pass 12
Total yds. allowed 8
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 24
Turnover differential -6
The New York Jet offense, which appeared to be on its way to getting on track after two consecutive wins, stalled last Sunday against the Colts. The Jets converted only 1 of 11 third down opportunities and couldn't put points on the board after the first quarter against Indianapolis.

The Colts were held to under 25 points for the second time this year, but the Jet offense was unable to take advantage of its defense's stellar play, putting only six points on the board. RB Curtis Martin averaged over 4 yards per carry, but the Jets couldn't rely solely on the run, and QB Ray Lucas, for the first time in the last three weeks, was ineffective, going 12-22 for 102 yards.

Throwing the football will not get any easier this week against the Giants, although there is a match-up the Jets must exploit to be successful. Lucas needs to look downfield for WR Wayne Chrebet, who for much of the game will be matched up against Giants' RDC Phillipi Sparks. Sparks was victimized repeatedly against the Cardinals last week, so look for Parcells and the Jets to continue to exploit him with Chrebet's quickness.

The Jets should also look to use three- and four-WR formations to force the Giants to use their nickel package. In the nickel, the Jets will be better able to spread the field and create running lanes for RB Martin, as well as expose a Giant secondary that is very thin at the corner position.

The Giant defense didn't play that poorly in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, holding Arizona to 62 yards rushing, but New York's defense couldn't make plays when it had to. The Cardinals fumbled the ball four times, but the Giants only recovered one, while the secondary didn't make any interceptions. With an offense that has been struggling, particularly moving the ball on the ground, the Giant defense needs to come up with big plays and put the offense in a better position to score.

Defensive success for the Giants will depend upon the play of the team's front seven, which needs to put pressure on Jet QB Ray Lucas and take away the cutback from RB Martin. Lucas is mobile, but has not faced a lot of pressure from opposing defenses absent blitzing linebackers and safeties. If Lucas is forced, under pressure, to throw into double coverage, he will have a tougher time than he has in weeks past throwing into single coverage.

LDE Michael Strahan needs to exploit Jets plodding ROT Siupeli Malamala, whose feet could betray him against a player who comes off the corner as well as any every-down DE in the NFL. Defensive coordinator John Fox needs to be sure that his team disguises its coverages against Lucas, forcing the Jets' QB to make good decisions.

Giants offense vs. Jets defense
GIANTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 27
Pass 12
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 20
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 33
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 16
vs. Pass 21
Total yds. allowed 19
# of Ints. 15
# of Sacks 21
Turnover differential +9
After a promising performance against the Redskins two weeks ago, Giant QB Kerry Collins returned to form against the Cardinals last Sunday. Collins threw three interceptions and fumbled once against Arizona, continually making bad decisions at critical points in the game. This week, Collins' job will not get any easier against Bill Belichick's defense, which has proven to be one of the stingier units in the league.

Collins could use some help from a stagnant Giant running game but that doesn't seem likely with FB Charles Way out for the rest of the season. The Giants ran for 52 yards as a team, with RB Tiki Barber leading the way. Barber appears to be effective in only limited situations, particularly on third down, and is ineffective running the ball between the tackles. The healthy return of rookie RB Joe Montgomery could give the Giants a boost, as Montgomery has shown flashes and can be effective as an every down player.

The bottom line, however, does not bode well for the Giant running game, as the Jets surrendered just over three-yards per carry to the AFC's leading rusher, Colt's RB Edgerrin James. ROT Scott Gragg will need to have a solid game against Jets' LOLB Moe Lewis, who is effective both against the run and as an edge rusher in passing situations. Should Collins falter early this week, Giant coach Jim Fassell has put himself in a position where it will be tough to make a position change.

The Jet defense enters this week's match-up against the Giants as the only team to hold the Indianapolis Colts' offense under 25 points -- and the Jets have done it twice this season. This does not bode well for the Giant offense, particularly with the mistake-prone Kerry Collins at the helm.

Expect Belichick to come at Collins with a variety of blitz packages, forcing Collins to get the ball out to his receivers quickly. The Jets used such looks to get to Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning twice last weekend and Manning had only been sacked eight times all season going into the game. Belichick should be able to neutralize the Giant running game without a lot of exotic looks, so at least initially, look for double coverage on the Giants' outside receivers.

The Jet front seven will be saddled with the responsibility of neutralizing the Giant running game without a lot of help from the team's safeties, as they will be protecting the Jets from the home-run ball. The Giants have two big receivers in Amani Toomer and Joe Jurevicius who can go up and get the ball and could cause match-up problems against undersized Jet CBs Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category JETS GIANTS
Punt return avg. 25 3
Kickoff return avg. 2 11
Opp. punt return avg. 28 7
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 31 16
Time of possession 9 20
Statistically, Jets KR Dwight Stone is the second best kick return man in the league this season with a 28.9 yard average, but the Jet kick and punt coverage units are among the worst in the NFL, and could struggle this weekend against Giant special teams units that are solid across the board. Particularly dangerous is the multipurpose Barber, who has single-handedly won games for the Giants this season with big returns at critical times. Jet P Tom Tupa leads the league in net punting average at 39.1 yards per kick, which shows that he excels at dropping balls inside the 20 and minimizes touchbacks. Look for Tupa to punt away from Barber this weekend. Giant PK Cary Blanchard has been stellar in relief of Brad Daluiso, but needs help on kick-offs, kicking two balls out of bounds last week.

Key matchups
  • Jets QB Ray Lucas vs. Giants defensive coordinator John Fox
    The Jets would like for Lucas to be a caretaker quarterback and not have to win this game with his arm, but Fox will try to confuse him by disguising coverages and blitzes to force poor throws and bad decisions.

  • Giants QB Kerry Collins vs. Jets defensive coordinator Bill Belichick
    Collins has a lot of natural talent but is very rusty, and Belichick is one of the most creative minds in football. He will try to confuse Collins with a variety of coverages and blitz from every angle in hopes of rattling Collins and forcing bad decisions.

  • Giants LDE Michael Strahan vs. Jets ROT Ryan Young or Siupeli Malamala
    Strahan seems to face inexperience and less talented OT's almost every week and it is an absolute mis-match, as he is one of the best pass rushers in the business, but also plays the run well. Unlike some of his Giant teammates, he is still playing very hard and with a lot of pride. He should dominate Young or Malamala, which will require more double-team blocking schemes.

    New York Jets will win if...
  • QB Ray Lucas takes care of the football. In a very close football game the Jets cannot afford to turn the ball over and give the Giants a short field. Lucas needs to direct this team without making a lot of mistakes or creating a lot of turnovers.

  • RB Curtis Martin can give the Jets ball-control and time of possession. If Martin has a 25-carry, 100+ yard rushing day, it gives the Jets their best chance for a win. Although they have playmakers at wide receiver, they do not want to be forced to put the ball in Ray Lucas' hands to win the game. Success in the run game will set up the passing game and allow Lucas to play with less pressure.

  • Defensive coordinator Bill Belichick's defense creates turnovers and big plays. With an offense that struggles to move the football, Belichick will try to get the ball for them with a short field for the offense to work with. This could be a game that hinges on turnovers and field position. With two very creative and innovate Defensive Coordinators the defense that dominates in this game will likely provide the margin for victory.

    New York Giants will win if...

  • QB Kerry Collins doesn't make any major mistakes. Collins has a lot of natural talent, but he is not putting up huge numbers in the passing game. He must not turn the ball over with interceptions and give the Jets a short field to work with. If he plays a mistake-free football game and moves the Giants offense in a ball-control passing attack, it gives them their best chance for a win.

  • LDE Michael Strahan and the Giants defense can pressure QB Ray Lucas. The Giants defense has not played well in recent weeks, but they must get pressure on a very athletic and mobile Lucas. If they pin him in the pocket and force him to throw the ball early, he is capable of making mistakes...What they cannot do is let him scramble outside of the pocket and create plays and defensive breakdowns with his feet.

  • They show offensive balance and avoid 3 and Outs. Ball-control is critical in this game and the Giants must be able to hold on to the football and at least be even in time of possession. Their run game is not as good as the Jets and they may have to use their passing attack as a way to move the chains. They must get positive yardage on first and second down to avoid a lot of "third and longs" that allow the Jets defense to "tee off" on them.

    The War Room edge
    A lot of the glamour of this show-down in the Big Apple is missing, as both of these teams are struggling to finish a very disappointing 1999 season after high-hopes heading into the season. There are a lot of similarities between these teams, as both are struggling at the quarterback position, neither team can get the passing game going, and both teams have good defenses that play a little up and down. The difference in this game may be defensive coordinator Bill Belichick and his ability to attack Kerry Collins and the Giants offense. Although the Jets lost to the Colts last Sunday, they are playing solid football with a lot of pride. In a very close defensive game, look for the Jets to pull this one out in the Meadowlands, but it won't be pretty.

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    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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