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Wednesday, December 1 War Room: Jets at Giants The War Room Jets offense vs. Giants defense
The Colts were held to under 25 points for the second time this year, but the Jet offense was unable to take advantage of its defense's stellar play, putting only six points on the board. RB Curtis Martin averaged over 4 yards per carry, but the Jets couldn't rely solely on the run, and QB Ray Lucas, for the first time in the last three weeks, was ineffective, going 12-22 for 102 yards. Throwing the football will not get any easier this week against the Giants, although there is a match-up the Jets must exploit to be successful. Lucas needs to look downfield for WR Wayne Chrebet, who for much of the game will be matched up against Giants' RDC Phillipi Sparks. Sparks was victimized repeatedly against the Cardinals last week, so look for Parcells and the Jets to continue to exploit him with Chrebet's quickness. The Jets should also look to use three- and four-WR formations to force the Giants to use their nickel package. In the nickel, the Jets will be better able to spread the field and create running lanes for RB Martin, as well as expose a Giant secondary that is very thin at the corner position. The Giant defense didn't play that poorly in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, holding Arizona to 62 yards rushing, but New York's defense couldn't make plays when it had to. The Cardinals fumbled the ball four times, but the Giants only recovered one, while the secondary didn't make any interceptions. With an offense that has been struggling, particularly moving the ball on the ground, the Giant defense needs to come up with big plays and put the offense in a better position to score. Defensive success for the Giants will depend upon the play of the team's front seven, which needs to put pressure on Jet QB Ray Lucas and take away the cutback from RB Martin. Lucas is mobile, but has not faced a lot of pressure from opposing defenses absent blitzing linebackers and safeties. If Lucas is forced, under pressure, to throw into double coverage, he will have a tougher time than he has in weeks past throwing into single coverage. LDE Michael Strahan needs to exploit Jets plodding ROT Siupeli Malamala, whose feet could betray him against a player who comes off the corner as well as any every-down DE in the NFL. Defensive coordinator John Fox needs to be sure that his team disguises its coverages against Lucas, forcing the Jets' QB to make good decisions. Giants offense vs. Jets defense
Collins could use some help from a stagnant Giant running game but that doesn't seem likely with FB Charles Way out for the rest of the season. The Giants ran for 52 yards as a team, with RB Tiki Barber leading the way. Barber appears to be effective in only limited situations, particularly on third down, and is ineffective running the ball between the tackles. The healthy return of rookie RB Joe Montgomery could give the Giants a boost, as Montgomery has shown flashes and can be effective as an every down player. The bottom line, however, does not bode well for the Giant running game, as the Jets surrendered just over three-yards per carry to the AFC's leading rusher, Colt's RB Edgerrin James. ROT Scott Gragg will need to have a solid game against Jets' LOLB Moe Lewis, who is effective both against the run and as an edge rusher in passing situations. Should Collins falter early this week, Giant coach Jim Fassell has put himself in a position where it will be tough to make a position change. The Jet defense enters this week's match-up against the Giants as the only team to hold the Indianapolis Colts' offense under 25 points -- and the Jets have done it twice this season. This does not bode well for the Giant offense, particularly with the mistake-prone Kerry Collins at the helm. Expect Belichick to come at Collins with a variety of blitz packages, forcing Collins to get the ball out to his receivers quickly. The Jets used such looks to get to Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning twice last weekend and Manning had only been sacked eight times all season going into the game. Belichick should be able to neutralize the Giant running game without a lot of exotic looks, so at least initially, look for double coverage on the Giants' outside receivers. The Jet front seven will be saddled with the responsibility of neutralizing the Giant running game without a lot of help from the team's safeties, as they will be protecting the Jets from the home-run ball. The Giants have two big receivers in Amani Toomer and Joe Jurevicius who can go up and get the ball and could cause match-up problems against undersized Jet CBs Aaron Glenn and Ray Mickens. Special teams
The Jets would like for Lucas to be a caretaker quarterback and not have to win this game with his arm, but Fox will try to confuse him by disguising coverages and blitzes to force poor throws and bad decisions.
Collins has a lot of natural talent but is very rusty, and Belichick is one of the most creative minds in football. He will try to confuse Collins with a variety of coverages and blitz from every angle in hopes of rattling Collins and forcing bad decisions.
Strahan seems to face inexperience and less talented OT's almost every week and it is an absolute mis-match, as he is one of the best pass rushers in the business, but also plays the run well. Unlike some of his Giant teammates, he is still playing very hard and with a lot of pride. He should dominate Young or Malamala, which will require more double-team blocking schemes. New York Jets will win if...
New York Giants will win if...
The War Room edge
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