Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
Seattle offense vs. Oakland defense
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SEAHAWKS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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22
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Pass
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19
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Tot. Yds.
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26
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Scoring
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10
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Int's allowed
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9
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Sacks allowed
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27
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RAIDERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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17
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vs. Pass
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22
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Total yds. allowed
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14
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# of Ints.
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15
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# of Sacks
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33
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Turnover differential
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+1
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In the first meeting between these two teams, the Seahawks averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against the Raiders swarming front seven. This number is likely to increase significantly for a couple of reasons. First off, in the original meeting, the Seahawks were still getting used to Mike Holmgren's offensive system, and the offensive line has made huge strides since their Week 4 meeting. Also, the addition of WR Joey Galloway will change the Raiders' defensive strategy drastically, forcing them to play less aggressive at the safety position in order to give help in the deep third. Even though Galloway's production has not been alarming since his return to the team, his presence on the outside forces teams to play more honest against the run.
The maturation process of QB Jon Kitna over the course of the past eight-weeks is also going to be a big factor in this rematch. Kitna did throw for five interceptions just last week against the Buccaneers, but that is not a true indicator of his ability to run this West Coast system.
Kitna has shown an uncanny ability to read coverage and adjust to certain alignments and schemes for an inexperienced quarterback in such a complex system. The challenge this week is will be to get his receivers the ball in blanket coverage from cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Eric Allen. The abilities of Woodson and Allen to take wide outs out of the game allows the defense to be more aggressive all the way around, and gives the Raiders more personnel to work with inside the tackles.
The key to the Raiders' defensive success (tied for fifth in the league with 33 sacks) has been the seven-man frontline rotation allowing coordinator Willie Shaw to keep the defensive line fresh. The athleticism of the front four enables the Raiders to execute the zone-blitz better than almost any other team in the league. The zone blitz is one of the better schemes to defense the West Coast system because it disrupts many of the short timing patterns on which the offense is predicated.
Oakland offense vs. Seattle defense
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RAIDERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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3
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Pass
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10
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Tot. Yds.
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6
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Scoring
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9
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Int's allowed
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9
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Sacks allowed
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37
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SEAHAWKS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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8
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vs. Pass
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25
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Total yds. allowed
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13
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# of Ints.
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21
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# of Sacks
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29
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Turnover differential
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+5
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There are a lot of intriguing matchups at the skill positions when evaluating the Oakland offense versus the Seattle defense, but the true battle is going to be won up front, where Oakland's offensive line is going to have to raise its level of play if they are to get any production out of the running game and protect QB Rich Gannon in the pocket.
The Raiders are rushing for over 127-yards per game, but they will face a swarming front seven on Sunday that has the capability to shut down the running lanes with pure quickness off the ball and power at the point of attack.
RB Tyrone Wheatley rushed for 120 yards on 20 carries in the first meeting between these two teams, but second-half adjustments by coach Mike Holmgren helped in shutting down the back, holding Wheatley to just 9 yards on 7 carries. The Seahawks went to a lot more man-to-man coverage on the wideouts and walked up SS Anthony Newman to create more of a "44" look against the run.
Wheatley has provided a big boost for the Raiders running game this season, but teams are having greater success against the back when they force him to bounce the ball outside, neutralizing his power as a back and forcing him wide where he is unable to win the race to the corner because of marginal speed.
Oakland will look to open up their formations more on Sunday to spread out the Seahawks defensive personnel, but the game plan is to still run the football. The Raiders seem to have gotten away from running the ball with the type of consistency that was winning them ball games earlier in the season.
With a healthy Wheatley and Napolean Kaufman, the Raiders have the ability to sustain drives by running the football and working in the playaction pass off the running game. If the Raiders can run the ball over 35 times on Sunday, it will give them the edge in the time of possession battle and will give their aggressive defense time to rest on the sideline.
In the passing game, the Raiders are going to be forced to target CB Willie Williams, who will be in man-to-man coverage on WR James Jett. Tim Brown will still provide some underneath production in his matchup on CB Shawn Springs, but the deep threat will be taken away because of the speed difference that he gives up to Springs.
Williams has had some trouble this season in single-coverage, but most of that trouble has come against bigger, more physical receivers. The matchup here is going to center on Williams' ability to stay with Jett down the field. Jett is going to stretch the field vertically, not only to open up room underneath for Brown to work, but also to try to catch Williams biting on the play action fake. Jett is not going to have a big reception day, but it will be his ability to make the big play that could be the difference for the Raider offense.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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SEA
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OAK
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Punt return avg.
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1
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8
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Kickoff return avg.
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8
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25
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Opp. punt return avg.
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16
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24
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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3
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20
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Time of possession
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29
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4
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Todd Peterson has had a reliable leg this season, hitting on 22-of-25 field goal attempts with a long of 51-yards. Ahman Green is having a respectable year returning kickoffs, averaging 23.6-yards per return with a long of 54-yards. Charlie Rogers leads the league as a punt return specialist, averaging 15.6-yards per return with a 94-yard touchdown return.
Michael Husted is struggling on the season, connecting on just 17-of-25 field goal attempts, with a long of just 49-yards. Darrien Gordon is still one of the top returners in the league, and his consistency is what separates him from the pack. Gordon is averaging 10.9-yards per return and has provided the Raiders with some timely return.
Key matchups
Oakland WR James Jett vs. Seattle CB Willie Williams
The Seahawks have been matching up Shawn Springs on teams' top receivers, which will leave Williams matched up Jett. Williams has been picked upon all season long, and will again have trouble against the speed of Jett downfield. This is a critical matchup because it will force the Seahawks to get help in the deep-third from its safeties, which will take away from Seattle's ability to walk up their safeties in run support.
Oakland TE Ricky Dudley vs. Seattle FS Jay Bellamy
The role of Dudley in the passing game increases each week with the Raiders' inability to throw the ball down field. If Dudley can become more productive in the middle of the field, it will force the Seahawks to pinch their safeties inside, creating more single-man matchups on the Raider wideouts. Bellamy is an excellent cover safety, but he should have some trouble matching up with Dudley because of the size he gives up.
Seattle WR Derrick Mayes vs. Oakland CB Eric Allen
Since the return of WR Joey Galloway, Mayes has been working with a lot more single-coverages, but has been unable to up his production. Mayes will have his hands full against one of the top cover corners in the league, but he needs to make himself a presence down field. Allen will look to press Mayes on the line of scrimmage to take advantage of his size and experience in the matchup, but Mayes has the ability to shake free and get down field if he makes some nice double moves off the line of scrimmage.
Seattle will win if...
They attack LB Sam Sword in the running game. Sword, an undrafted rookie, has won the weakside linebacker job because of his discipline at the position. Sword, however, is undersized and has had some trouble stacking up against teams that run the ball right at him. The Seahawks have struggled to establish the running game in the past couple contests, but should be able to do so by running the ball weakside with a lot of pulling guards to kickout Sword. The Seahawks need to take advantage of this matchup in order to sustain more drives and make their passing attack that much more lethal.
The offense spreads the field, forcing the Raiders into nickel and dime packages on 1st and 2nd downs. Oakland has a physical and aggressive front seven that can cause a lot of havoc in pass rush if they are able to stick with their blitz and stunt package. Seattle has a dynamic receiving corps now, and will need to utilize their personnel by running more three- and four-receiver sets to force the Raiders into nickel and dime packages. If the Raiders are limited in their pass rush, it will give Kitna more time in the pocket to operate, and should open up more running lanes underneath for RB Ricky Watters.
The Seahawk defensive tackles protect MLB Anthony Simmons against the run. The Seahawks are physical and mostly dominant up front because of their ability to stack against the run and draw double-teams on their defensive tackles. If Kortez Kennedy and Sam Adams are a presence up front, it will allow Simmons to be more active against the run.
Oakland will win if...
They are able to run the ball over 35 times. The Raiders seem to have gotten away from running the ball with the type of consistency that was winning them games earlier in the season. With a healthy Tyrone Wheatley and Napolean Kaufman, the Raiders have the ability to sustain drives by running the football and working in the play-action pass off the running game. If the Raiders can run the ball over 35 times on Sunday, it will give them the edge in the time of possession battle and will give their aggressive defense time to rest on the sideline.
CB's Eric Allen and Charles Woodson take Seattle's wideouts out of the game. This should be a classic matchup, featuring one of the top cornerback duos in the league versus one of the most explosive receiving corps. Allen and Woodson have made a name for themselves by taking teams' top wideouts out of the game, forcing offenses to look other places for production in the passing game. If Allen and Woodson can take Galloway and Mayes out of the game, it will give the Raider safeties more of an opportunity to help in run support as well as to work in coverage against the Seahawk tight ends and backs out of the backfield in the passing game.
ROT Darryl Ashmore holds up inside versus Seattle's bigger, more physical defensive tackles. Ashmore has been inserted into the lineup due to the injury to previous starter Gennaro DiNapoli. Seattle's defensive tackles, Kortez Kennedy and Sam Adams do a lot of twisting and stunting underneath, and should be able to cause matchup problems as well as communication trouble for the inexperienced Ashmore. Ashmore needs to have a flawless performance on Sunday if the Raiders are to establish the running game as well as give QB Rich Gannon time to operate in the passing game without having to call upon OC Barrett Robbins to help in the double team.
The War Room edge
At 5-6, the Raiders are running out of chances to get back into the playoff race in the AFC. John Gruden's club is the best 5-6 team in the league, handing over numerous "should-win" games in the waning moments. Seattle looked to have all but closed the door on the AFC West until getting knocked out last week at home against the Buccaneers. The Raiders may be looking at their last real chance to crawl back into the race in the West in a must-win game at home on Sunday. Seattle is a more rounded team, with an offense that can strike from anywhere on the field, and a defense that is relentless in pursuit. However, there is something to say for a Raiders team that has been in just about every game this season and knows that its backs are against the wall. Look for the Raiders to ride a dominating defensive performance combined with an opportunistic offense lead by veteran QB Rich Gannon. This sea-saw battle will end in a big defensive stand for the Raiders that will leave Seattle stranded just one game up in the AFC West.
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