Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
San Francisco offense vs. Cincinnati defense
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49ERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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10
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Pass
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24
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Tot. Yds.
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21
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Scoring
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28
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Int's allowed
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16
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Sacks allowed
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29
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BENGALS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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20
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vs. Pass
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18
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Total yds. allowed
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23
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# of Ints.
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8
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# of Sacks
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29
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Turnover differential
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-8
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The Niners have scored just one touchdown on offense in the past five games and Head Coach Steve Mariucci is faced with another choice at quarterback this week. Last week, despite having plenty of time in the pocket, Steve Stenstrom couldn't take advantage of a soft Packers secondary, completing just 19-of-35 passes. Marriucci's decision will come later in the week but early word out of San Francisco has Stenstrom retaining the starting job. One encouraging thing the Niners can take away from their loss to Green Bay was the involvement of WR Jerry Rice, who finished with four catches for 63 yards. Rice's 32-yard second quarter reception was his first over 20 yards since last December, underscoring the team's lack of big play ability. Running mates J.J. Stokes and Terrell Owens, who combined for just three receptions and 26 yards, must contribute in order for the Niners to be successful on Sunday. The Bengals' much-maligned secondary played its best game of the season last week against Pittsburgh. DC Rodney Heath & Co. will be in trouble against the Niners talented trio if they don't get help from the front seven. The Bengals have had little success getting pressure without the blitz and they'll big games from guys like OLB Steve Foley and NT Oliver Gibson.
Cincinnati's run defense held Jerome Bettis and the Steelers to 111 yards on 31 carries last week, but most importantly they didn't let the Steelers dominate the time possession. The Bengals will face a much different running style this week when they go up against San Francisco's Charlie Garner. The Niners are becoming awfully tough to defend on the ground because of the recent emergence of bruising FB Fred Beasley, who carried eight times for 47 yards. The inside-outside styles of the two RBs will make it difficult for the Bengals to load up on the flanks or up the middle. ILB's Takeo Spikes and Brian Simmons must show their range on Sunday to force the Niners to beat them through the air.
Cincinnati offense vs. San Francisco defense
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BENGALS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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11
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Pass
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17
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Tot. Yds.
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13
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Scoring
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25
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Int's allowed
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14
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Sacks allowed
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38
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49ERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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23
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vs. Pass
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27
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Total yds. allowed
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27
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# of Ints.
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11
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# of Sacks
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21
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Turnover differential
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-8
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The Bengals proved last week that they have the ability to be a balanced offensive team, gaining 182 yards on the ground and 233 on the right arm of QB Jeff Blake. Cincinnati struggled early on because of some inconsistency up front but the recent strong play of the offensive line is the reason the Bengals have been more competitive as of late. If they can protect QB Jeff Blake, which shouldn't be a problem against the Niners non-existent pass rush, the Bengals should be able to take advantage of San Francisco's soft coverage. A shakeup at cornerback might be in order after last Monday's loss to Green Bay. DC Ramos McDonald was called for a costly pass interference call and Monty Montgomery's soft cushion allowed the Packers to work him on slants and out patterns. Montgomery is out for the season with a broken arm, which will force the team to use its eighth different cornerback combination of the season. The Bengals must attack the deep third of the field with WR's Darnay Scott and Carl Pickens, especially on sideline routes where playmaking FS Lance Schulters will have a tough time getting over in coverage.
RB Corey Dillon rushed for 120 yards on 23 carries last week against a tough Steelers defense and he'll need a similar effort this week to draw SS Tim McDonald near the line of scrimmage, which will open up things for the passing game. Run defense has been the Niners' strength all season and they must get strong play up the middle against a between-the-tackles runner like Dillon. Defensive Coordinator Jim Mora Jr.'s unit had some glaring breakdowns and missed assignments last week and they can't afford such lapses against a Bengals team that needs all the help it can get.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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SF
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CIN
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Punt return avg.
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31
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9
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Kickoff return avg.
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9
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4
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Opp. punt return avg.
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13
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27
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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30
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12
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Time of possession
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23
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18
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The Niners coverage teams will have their hands full against Cincinnati return men Tremain Mack and Damon Griffin. Mack is third in the league with a 26.1 per return average on kickoffs and Griffin's lateral quickness will pose problems for San Francisco's punt coverage unit, which is ranked last in the NFL. San Francisco's return teams received a shakeup when R.W. McQuarters left the game in the first half with broken scapula. Travis Jervey displayed his tremendous speed filling in on kickoffs, breaking free for an electrifying 48-yard return. Mark Harris was less than spectacular on punts so look for Special Teams coach George Stewart to audition a couple of new faces this week in practice. Cincinnati PK Doug Pelfrey's struggles continue to frustrate the team. Pelfrey's missed 25-yard attempt last week against Pittsburgh was the shortest shank of his career and he can't afford to struggle in a game that could be decided by the kicking game. San Francisco's Wade Richey hasn't had many opportunities but is quietly having a fine season, having missed only once all season (16-of-17).
Key matchups
San Francisco DEs Posey & Wilkins vs. Cincinnati OTs Anderson & Jones
The Niners' duo has one sack between them all season and they need to get outside pressure to force QB Blake up in the pocket. If San Francisco is soft on the edges, it will allow Blake to break contain and make big plays downfield when the Niners breakdown in coverage.
Cincinnati ILBs Spikes and Simmons vs. San Francisco FB Fred Beasley
The Niners are extremely happy with Beasley's progress and the Bengals will have to be more physical at the point of attack in order to contain RB Garner. San Francisco will look to establish the run early and it will be up to Cincy's inside tandem to dictate the tempo of this game.
Cincinnati LOLB Steve Foley vs. San Francisco ROT Derrick Deese
Foley has flashed tremendous potential in his one and a half seasons in the league but he's finally starting to sustain his play over the course of an entire game. If Deese struggles early, he'll receive little help from the 49er RB's and TE's.
San Francisco will win if...
They can find a rhythm in the passing game. Both Stenstrom and Garcia are streaky passers that can be effective if they get on a roll early. Look for the Niners to open with a short passing game to build confidence in the first quarter. If they can accomplish this, it should open up things vertically for WR Owens.
The offense takes advantage of opportunities in the red zone. This has been a recurring theme for San Francisco all season but they have yet to figure out a way to come away with six inside the 20-yard line. Without TE Greg Clark in the lineup, the Bengals will be able to overplay the outside receivers and provide help to their undersized DCs.
DCs Montgomery and McDonald keep plays in front of them. Now making their third start together, this duo should be getting a better feel in coverage. WR's Scott and Pickens could do great damage if they beat this pair with double-moves on the outside.
Cincinnati will win if...
They get the ground game untracked early. Last week's impressive effort against the Steelers proves how capable this offensive unit can be if it establishes a running game. The passing game opened up nicely for QB Blake after RB Dillon effectively pounded the ball between the tackles.
They play smart football and minimize mental errors. The Bengals have been hurt all season with drive-killing penalties on offense and costly breakdowns in the secondary. Cincinnati has a good chance of stealing a big win against the Niners if they don't revert back to old habits.
They get good pressure on the quarterback. Instability at the quarterback position leaves the Niners susceptible if they don't protect well. The Bengals have been competitive in every game that they've applied consistent heat on the passer. The guys up front need to get the job done for the Bengals so that Defensive Coordinator Dick LaBeau doesn't have to over-commit to the blitz.
The War Room edge
The Bengals proved last week that they have more talent than their 2-10 record indicates. QB Blake should have a huge day against San Francisco's struggling secondary and RB Dillon is starting to run with more authority. San Francisco has struggled badly on the road all season and this Sunday will be no different. Everything comes back to the quarterback position for San Francisco and the Bengals will get enough pressure to force some turnovers. Bruce Coslet is suddenly now the toast of the town.
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War Room: Week 13 previews
