Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
St. Louis offense vs. Carolina defense
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RAMS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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7
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Pass
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4
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Tot. Yds.
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1
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Scoring
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1
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Int's allowed
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7
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Sacks allowed
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25
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PANTHERS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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25
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vs. Pass
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20
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Total yds. allowed
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25
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# of Ints.
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6
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# of Sacks
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26
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Turnover differential
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-5
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Last week's win over New Orleans was a tale of two halves, for both the Rams and their quarterback, Kurt Warner. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz went with too many seven-step drop sequences that relied on slow developing routes, a plan that resulted in just 78 yards of total offense in the first half. To their credit, the Rams reverted back to a quick-hitting offense in the second stanza, allowing Warner to find a rhythm.
Look for St. Louis to attack Carolina's streaky secondary with a similar approach this week. The Rams' receiver corps is blessed with such great speed that Warner doesn't need to take deep drops in order for players like Issac Bruce and Torry Holt to get downfield. The Rams will air it out more this week because their coaching staff is confident that the individual matchups in the passing game weigh heavily in their favor.
Carolina's secondary has played well recently but opponents tend to have good success against them in spurts, as Atlanta did last week with two-second quarter touchdown passes. The Panthers must get consistent pressure on Warner to have a chance of pulling off the upset. Defensive coordinator John Marshall's unit sacked Atlanta QB Chris Chandler four times last week but they did so with far too many blitzes.
The matchup to monitor this week will be waged between OLB Kevin Greene and ROT Fred Miller. Miller has tends to struggle if his opponent gets the upper hand early and Green showed last week that he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, recording a season-high 2.5 sacks.
St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk was held in check by the Saints for much of the game, gaining just 31 in the first three quarters. However, with the game already clearly in hand, head coach Dick Vermeil, at the urging of his offensive line, decided to leave Faulk in the game until he hit the 100-yard mark. Though it was a risky move, Vermeil's decision will go a long way in the locker room and the fact that the offensive line is taking such pride in Faulk's success is a great sign for this team.
Carolina gave up just 64 yards on the ground last week to Atlanta but the Falcons did so by averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The play of MLB Dean Wells will be huge for the Panthers on Sunday. Wells' strong play in the middle is a big reason the Panthers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher the past three games.
Carolina offense vs. St. Louis defense
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PANTHERS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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17
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Pass
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7
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Tot. Yds.
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5
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Scoring
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6
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Int's allowed
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12
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Sacks allowed
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38
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RAMS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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1
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vs. Pass
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23
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Total yds. allowed
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10
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# of Ints.
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18
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# of Sacks
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38
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Turnover differential
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+7
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The Panthers have little choice but to commit to the ground game on Sunday in order to dictate the tempo of the game. Although the ability to throw the football has been their strength all season, Carolina cannot afford to get into a shoot-out with St. Louis, especially considering the lack of depth at receiver. RB Tim Biakabutuka showed better stamina late in the game against the Falcons than he did the week before. Coming off a career-high 31-carry effort, Biakabutuka can expect another hefty workload this week against the top-rated run defense in the league.
Considering the Saints played without RB Ricky Williams, last Sunday's effort by the Rams was arguably their worst of the season, as they surrendered 102 yards on 28 carries. St. Louis can expect to see more of FB William Floyd than they have in the past. Floyd, who rushed for 23 yards on just three carries versus Atlanta, has seen his workload increase in recent weeks, especially in goal-line situations. The "jumbo" formation with Floyd at halfback and converted tight end Brian Kinchen at fullback has worked extremely well for offensive coordinator Gil Haskell's offense.
WR Mushin Muhammad had a hamstring tighten up on him in pre-game warmups against the Falcons and head coach George Seifert decided to err on side of caution so that he'll be ready for this week's showdown. If Muhammad plays as expected, QB Steve Beuerlein will have a potent three-receiver attack from which to work. In Muhammad's absence, second-year player Donald Hayes caught five passes for 133 yards in his first career start. If Hayes can maintain that level of play on Sunday, the Panthers should be able to exploit a Rams secondary that has been victimized by a 100-yard receiver in each of the past four games.
The Rams gave up far too many yards against New Orleans, but, to their credit, they stiffened once the Saints crossed mid-field. St. Louis' ability to rush the passer greatly depends on the health of DT D'Marco Farr, who left last week's game with a hip flexor injury only after recording two-first quarter sacks. Even if he is able to play, the Rams could have a tough time generating pressure against a Panthers offensive line that is coming off their best all-around performance of the season.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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STL
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CAR
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Punt return avg.
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2
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29
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Kickoff return avg.
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1
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8
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Opp. punt return avg.
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6
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2
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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27
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5
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Time of possession
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10
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16
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St. Louis KOR Tony Horne proved last week that he's the best in the business with three returns over 40 yards and consistently gave the Rams' explosive offense a short field to work with. Carolina's kick coverage unit is among the best in the NFC but PR Az Hakim could give them trouble on punts. Both punters, Carolina's Ken Walter and St. Louis' Mike Horan, are coming off strong performances but PR Eric Metcalf gave Horan something to think about with a 30-yard return last week against Atlanta. Carolina PK John Kasay converted 2-of-3 attempts last week but his miss snapped a streak of 16 consecutive successful tries, dating back to October 3.
Key matchups
Carolina OLB Kevin Greene vs. St. Louis TE Roland Williams
Against an explosive receiver corps like the Rams', Greene can't afford to let Williams become a factor. Williams caught three crucial passes, including a touchdown, in the first meeting. He will again pose matchup problems with his athleticism in the red-zone.
St. Louis DC Todd Lyght vs. Carolina WR Mushin Muhammad
Aside from Muhammad, the Rams did a good job of taking away the Panthers' WR's in the game three weeks ago. However, Muhammad frequently found himself wide open and finished with nine catches and 125 yards.
Carolina MLB Dean Wells vs. St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk
Aside from a big 53-yard reception, the Panthers did a good job of controlling Faulk in their Week 10 matchup. Wells doesn't have the range he once did and he'll have to do better than the three tackles he registered three weeks ago.
St. Louis will win if...
They get good pressure on QB Beuerlein and force the Panthers to beat them on the ground. The Rams rang up six sacks in the first meeting, including 2.5 by LDE Carter. Beuerlein has a tendency to be careless with the football when he's pressured and the Panthers have trouble finding the end zone when the offense is rendered one-dimensional.
The defense does a better on third down. The Panthers converted 7-of-15 (47 percent) the last time out and the Rams need to do a better job of negating the role of TE Walls, who racked up five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. St. Louis' linebackers were strong against the run but had too many breakdowns in coverage.
They can stretch the field and take advantage of individual matchups in the secondary. Carolina DCs Davis and Evans have been more effective in recent weeks but the Rams should be able to expose some shaky nickel and dime packages. Reserves Swift and Mullen will play key roles for the Panthers on Sunday.
Carolina will win if...
They don't fall behind early and control the ball with RB Biakabutuka. Fred Lane put in a workmanlike effort (13 att., 54 yds.) in the first meeting but Biakabutuka's absence definitely limited offensive coordinator Gil Haskell's options. The Panthers offense kept the ball for over 35 minutes in the last game and they will have to do the same this week. Biakabutuka should add a spark.
They protect QB Beuerlein. The offensive line logged their worst performance of the season against the Rams, giving up six huge sacks. Plain and simple, the Panthers can't afford to have Beuerlein throwing off his back foot all afternoon. Rookie ROT Terry will get plenty of help this time around against LDE Carter. With the RB's being held in for protection purposes, Beuerlein's underneath options will be limited.
The secondary prevents big plays in the passing game. The Panthers surrendered an average of 9.8 per passing play in the first game between these teams, with RB Faulk's 53-yard catch-and-run being the back-breaker. Carolina needs to keep plays in front of them and limit yards after the catch.
The War Room edge
This game will stay surprisingly close but the Rams just have too much talent to drop this divisional showdown. Carolina played with better emotion last week against Atlanta and they'll need to sustain that intensity on Sunday versus Dick Vermeil's club. The Rams' receiver corps will make more big plays than they did in the first meeting between these teams. Rams clinch the NFC West.
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