Wednesday, December 1
The War Room
Washington offense vs. Detroit defense
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REDSKINS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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4
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Pass
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8
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Tot. Yds.
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3
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Scoring
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2
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Int's allowed
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9
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Sacks allowed
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14
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LIONS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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5
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vs. Pass
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29
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Total yds. allowed
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22
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# of Ints.
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8
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# of Sacks
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34
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Turnover differential
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+5
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The Redskins need to commit themselves to the run on Sunday if they expect to go into Detroit and steal a win. This is a team that appears to be coasting after two close victories against inferior opponents. RB Stephen Davis rushed for just 61 yards on 24 carries last week against a marginal Eagle run defense and he'll have to step it up a notch versus a Lions team that has found itself defensively since flopping against the Cardinals.
Coach Norv Turner chalked up the win over Philadelphia as a "character builder" but that evaluation is off base. Simply, the 'Skins are a team going through the motions. Washington's offensive line needs to play stronger at the point of attack and stop allowing so much penetration on first down. With Tracey Scroggins back in the lineup, the Lions are staying fresh along the defensive line and defensive coordinator Larry Peccatiello has disguised the run-blitz packages very well.
Washington has a difficult time throwing the ball vertically when Davis doesn't produce on the ground. The play-action passing game is essential to Turner's scheme and Davis' struggles translated into a long completion of just 20 yards against the Eagles.
After drawing four pass interference calls two weeks ago, the Bears did not test the Lions deep coverage until late in the second half. Look for QB Brad Johnson to take some shots early to WR's Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell against a secondary that should get back starters DC Bryant Westbrook and FS Mark Carrier. Detroit reserves Robert Bailey and Corwin Brown played extremely well on Thanksgiving Day, holding an explosive Bears offense to 204 yards through the air.
Detroit offense vs. Washington defense
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LIONS OFFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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Run
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23
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Pass
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9
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Tot. Yds.
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15
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Scoring
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12
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Int's allowed
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9
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Sacks allowed
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40
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REDSKINS DEFENSE
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Ranking in the NFL:
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vs. Run
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29
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vs. Pass
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28
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Total yds. allowed
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31
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# of Ints.
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17
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# of Sacks
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26
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Turnover differential
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+6
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Like the Redskins, head coach Bobby Ross needs to find a way to get his running game untracked. The Lions' offensive line is not getting a strong enough push up front and RB Greg Hill appears to running with blinders on half the time. Hill, who racked of 61 of his total 68 rushing yards on one drive against the Bears, is straightline runner who will need clear lanes to operate with against a porous Washington run defense.
Detroit needs strong play from the inside trio of OG's Jeff Hartings and Tony Semple and OC Mike Compton if the Lions are to have any success on the ground this week. Washington MLB Derek Smith is a legitimate player inside and Compton will have a hard time reaching him on combination blocks if he continues reading keys like he has the past few weeks.
QB Charlie Batch returns this week for Detroit after a three-week layoff and the Lions are confident that his injured thumb has healed enough for him to make all the throws. Batch will enjoy the luxury of increased three-receiver sets this week now that WR Herman Moore, who played about 30 snaps against Chicago, is back in the mix.
WR's Johnnie Morton and Germaine Crowell played so well in Moore's absence that they will remain the starters but Moore should see significant time against a susceptible Redskins zone defense. Detroit needs big games from Moore and TE David Sloan because they are the two players that are most comfortable finding seams in zones.
It might be asking too much but the Redskins desperately need to generate a consistent pass rush against Batch. Washington sacked Philly rookie Donovan McNabb just twice last week and they let him break contain for 71 yards rushing on eight carries. While he doesn't quite have the speed of McNabb, Batch is capable of hurting the Redskins with his feet if they aren't conscious of their gaps.
Special teams
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NFL RANK
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Category
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WAS
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DET
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Punt return avg.
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23
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20
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Kickoff return avg.
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28
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23
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Opp. punt return avg.
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22
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18
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Opp. kickoff ret. avg.
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25
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9
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Time of possession
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24
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19
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Lions PR Iheayne Uwaezuoke's second-half fumble against the Bears is now an afterthought because it didn't cost them the game but his carelessness was addressed at great lengths this week in practice. Detroit's kick coverage unit, one of the best in the league all season, gave up a huge return late in the first half to set up a Bears touchdown right before half. They can't afford these types of breakdowns in what promises to be a close game. Washington RS Brian Mitchell logged perhaps his best game of the season last week against Philadelphia. The return units provided wide seams for Mitchell and James Thrash all afternoon but they will face bolstered coverage units this week. Because of injuries and a suspension, the Lions were forced to use some of their special teams regulars in extended position duty, which took away from the overall effectiveness of the cover teams against the Bears. If this one is tight, look for Detroit PK Jason Hansen to be the difference-maker. Washington's Brett Conway is a talented young kicker but last week's game-winning miss proved he has a way to go. Although he missed a 53-yarder on Thanksgiving, Hansen is almost automatic at home.
Key matchups
Washington DL vs. Detroit OL
Greg Hill is not the type of RB that can slide down the line and create yardage on his own; he is a straightline runner that needs a crease to be effective. The Lions' offensive line has had problems establishing even the slightest crack for him. Washington's porous run defense might be exactly what Detroit needs after another poor outing against the Bears.
Detroit FS Mark Carrier vs. Washington QB Brad Johnson
It will be interesting to see how Carrier bounces back from last week's suspension and he'll face some of the best play-fakes in the league with Johnson under center. Carrier normally positions himself deep in coverage, which means he'll have to bite hard in order for WR's Westbrook and Connell to run free behind coverage.
Detroit MLB Stephen Boyd vs. Washington RB Stephen Davis
The Redskins struggled badly last week when Davis was shut down by a swarming Eagles defense. Davis, who averaged just 2.5 per carry in the overtime win, must rebound against one of the better run-defenses in the league, led by Boyd's 86 tackles.
Washington will win if...
They take away the run game and force QB Batch to beat them without the threat of play-action. The Lions' running game has stalled the past three weeks and they will be much easier to defend if the Redskins take away a dimension of their offense. The Lions want to protect Batch as much as possible after a three-week layoff and the best way to do so is with play-action.
The QB Johnson tests the Lions secondary with some deep balls. For some odd reason, the Bears decided not to throw vertically until they were behind three touchdowns on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions were torched deep two weeks ago by the Packers and will have a hard time staying with the Redskins big-play receiver corps.
They minimize mistakes and down fall behind early. The Lions need this game to stay among the pack in the NFC Central and they have done an excellent job all season capitalizing on opponents' mistakes. The Silverdome is an extremely tough place to play when the crowd becomes a factor so the 'Skins can't afford a slow start.
Detroit will win if...
The receivers find the sticks on third down. The Lions failed to score a point in the second half against the Bears but they were able to hold on because of some huge plays on third down. Detroit converted 11-of-19 (59 percent) against the Bears but that number could drop with a rusty Batch in the lineup.
They can contain RB Davis. After an uncharacteristic performance against the Cardinals three weeks ago, Detroit's run defense appears to be back on track. The front four has done an excellent job of getting penetration but don't expect the Redskins offensive line to suffer through consecutive disappointing performances.
They run the ball effectively on first down. The Lions have struggled badly on first down the past two weeks, putting themselves in terrible distance situations on second and third down. Gus Frerotte bailed them out with some big throws last week but Batch can't be expected to do the same after such a long layoff. Offensive coordinator Sylvester Croom must find a way to get Hill and Schlesinger some room on early downs. More play-action on first down might help.
The War Room edge
The Redskins are doing just enough to pull out wins but that luck will run out this week in the Silverdome. With QB Batch and WR Moore finally back on the field at the same time, the Lions should be able to dictate the tempo of this game. While the 'Skins have a formidable offense, their defense simply won't get the job done against Detroit's three-receiver sets.
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