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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Ravens at Steelers


Baltimore offense vs. Pittsburgh defense
RAVENS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 15
Pass 24
Tot. Yds. 23
Scoring 16
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 39
   
STEELERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 21
vs. Pass 2
Total yds. allowed 6
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 14
Turnover differential +7
Tony Banks has put together solid back-to-back performances, but continues to turn the ball over. Pittsburgh's 3-4 defensive scheme is ranked sixth in the NFL and likes to rush the passer with their highly touted zone-blitz. Baltimore has given up a whopping 41 sacks, so Banks will need to protect the football when under duress, because the Steelers will be targeting his release.

Errict Rhett left last week's game with bruised ribs and is questionable this week against the Steelers. His backup, Priest Holmes, surpassed the century mark filling in, gaining 101 yards on nine carries. Rhett was atop the AFC's rushing leaders early in the year, but his north/south running style was slowed by the Ravens inability to have success throwing the ball. Rhett doesn't have the speed to be a threat to turn the corner outside, but Holmes does, as witnessed in his 72-yard jaunt against the Titans last week.

The Steeler defenders have experienced more success rushing the passer than stopping the run this season, as they rank 21st stopping the run, giving up 110 yards per outing on the ground. Pittsburgh NT Joel Steed's lack of aggression up front has been the root of the Steelers' troubles facing the run. Penetration from Steed's NT position is vital to the Steelers' ability to stop the run out of the 3-4 and he has been noted for his ability to stuff the run, but hasn't been capable of late.

Raven OC Jeff Mitchell fights to finish off every block, but doesn't have the athletic ability of a Joel Steed. If Steed is to break out of his slump, this is the game for him to do so. But if Mitchell can neutralize Steed it will free FB Chuck Evans to locate Steeler ILB's Levon Kirkland and Earl Holmes on isolation plays, allowing either Rhett or Priest Holmes to have running room inside.

Brian Billick's Ravens are ranked 23rd in total offense, but have played well against two formidable defensive units, (Jacksonville and Tennessee) over the past two weeks. The arrival of Baltimore's offense is a direct result of their passing game. Recently, Billick has urged Banks to check off plays at the line of scrimmage before taking the snap, the result has been proficient play from Banks and the Raven WR corps.

Pittsburgh's secondary has been playing poor, CB's Dwayne Washington and DeShea Townsend will be picked on by Banks and for good reason. Washington has been overaggressive in coverage all season and paid for it last week, getting beat for a 27-yard TD by Jimmy Smith after biting on an out-and-up rout. DeShea Townsend has been filling in for the injured Chad Scot, and will give up size and speed in man-to-man coverage across from Raven WR Patrick Johnson, who is expected to play after bruising his calf against Tennessee.

While the Ravens WR unit is bit short on talent but complimentary to one another. Look for Justin Armour to run his crisp ten to fifteen yard patterns and Qadry Ismail and Jermain Lewis to pose a deep threat to the Pittsburgh secondary by trying to get vertical. The good news for the Steeler DBs is that Chad Scott is back and may play on Sunday.

Pittsburgh offense vs. Baltimore defense
STEELERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 12
Pass 27
Tot. Yds. 26
Scoring 22
Int's allowed 12
Sacks allowed 27
   
RAVENS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 2
vs. Pass 10
Total yds. allowed 4
# of Ints. 14
# of Sacks 34
Turnover differential 0
Last week, Mike Tomczak started his first game of the season against the AFC's best defense at Jacksonville, and it won't get much easier when the Steeler offense lines up against the 4th-ranked Ravens defense, yielding an average of just 286 yards per game total offense. The Steeler offense is sputtering, both on the ground and through the air, and a matchup with a defense like Baltimore's couldn't have come at a worse time.

Jerome Bettis has been having trouble running the football and the main problem lies just a few feet ahead of him under center. Like any good back, Bettis needs a passing threat to keep the linebacking corps and secondaries honest.

Early in the season, when teams were concerned with Stewart, Bettis had opportunities and room to run. Since Stewart has fallen apart and Pittsburgh's passing game has sunk to 27th ranking in the NFL, Bettis' numbers have gone south. Now Bettis is struggling, facing eight-men in the box every week. However, the Steeler running woes is not only a result of the unproductive passing game.

The Steeler offensive line has been decimated with injuries. OC Dermontti Dawson has been bothered by a hamstring injury all season and the right tackle spot has seen the loss of Justin Strzelczyk lead to three players splitting time, none of whom have pulled their weight. All this spells trouble at the hands of a Raven defense that ranks 2nd in the entire league against the run, allowing just 80 yards total a game.

Baltimore's run defense just keeps improving. Once a linebacker who had to beat blockers to the spot to make every tackle, Ray Lewis has mastered the craft of shedding blocks on the way to making stops. Steeler FB Jon Witman takes poor blocking angels to begin with, but even if he does get to Lewis, he'll have his work cut out.

Expect to see Michael McCrary have another big one Sunday against Steeler LOT Wayne Gandy, Gandy is the quickest offensive lineman the Steelers have, but he'll have trouble handling McCrary's speed bursts off the LOS. If McCrary can beat Gandy on a consistent basis, Bettis will be forced to cut back to the right side of the LOS where Pittsburgh has been having all of their problems up front.

Steeler offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride is promoting the deep ball to his QBs and WRs -- thinking his offense needs to stretch the field in order to open up Tomczak's strength, underneath routes and Bettis running game. The problem with this strategy surfaced last week: Tomczak's 37-year-old arm.

Even as a young quarterback in Chicago, Tomczak couldn't put enough zip on the ball to complete the deep route and he still can't. Troy Edwards was open down field on several occasions last week, but Tomczak couldn't get him the football. However, Gilbride will stick to this plan because he knows that even if the passes are not completed, Baltimore must respect the possibility of WR Troy Edwards beating RCB Duane Starks to the deep third of the field. Starks has the speed to keep up with Edwards, but Fernando Bryant was supposed to be able to last week and couldn't.

The Steelers passing game will need to find a way to score a few TDs and stretching the field will be a start. If Pittsburgh cannot complete some passes early, Ravens' defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis will come with a lethal blitz package, sending LB Peter Boulware up the field from his LOLB spot. Boulware has been getting good pressure lately, but has trouble beating blocking backs when he's picked up.

Ravens FS Rod Woodson has been playing well lately, as he picked off a Steve McNair pass and brought it in for a score last week. But Woodson has been to quick to bite on crossing routes all season and this leaves the middle of the field wide open. The Steelers may gameplan to send WRs Hines Ward or Courtney Hawkins across the middle as a decoys and then send Edwards or TE Bruener over the middle, which will have been vacated by the zealous Woodson.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category BAL PIT
Punt return avg. 22 16
Kickoff return avg. 17 29
Opp. punt return avg. 22 24
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 8 4
Time of possession 24 9
The Baltimore return units must concentrate on avoiding silly penalties this week, as they have been making too many mental errors by committing multiple infractions this season. Raven coverage has been incredibly reliable this season thanks to ST's coach Russ Purnell. Matt Stover has been up to par on both kickoffs and FGs.

Pittsburgh punter Josh Miller has come around this year and is possibly the most valuable asset Bill Cowher has right now, averaging over 45 yards a punt. Kris Brown has been solid throughout the season, but could work on his follow-through. Will Blackwell's injury hurts the Steeler return units.

Key matchups
  • Ravens RB Priest Holmes vs. Steelers ILBs Holmes and Golden
    The Ravens want to run the football to set up the pass game, but the Steeler ILBs are very physical and do a great job of stuffing the inside run. If they can force the Ravens to run wide, it will allow the pursuit to catchup and negate the run game.

  • Steelers DCs Deshea Townsend and Dewayne Washington vs. Ravens WRs Jermaine Lewis and Qadry Ismail
    Lewis has been the forgotten man in the Ravens' passing attack, even though he is their most explosive WR. With QB Tony Banks gaining confidence, the Ravens have a chance to put pressure on the Steeler corners, who must get help from a blitzing front-seven that puts pressure on Ravens QB Tony Banks.

  • Steelers LOT Wayne Gandy vs. Ravens DE Michael McCrary
    McCrary had a huge game last Sunday with 3+ sacks and he faces an opponent in Gandy that he should be able to out-quick. It is likely that Gandy will need help in this matchup.

    Baltimore will win if...
  • QB Tony Banks holds on to the football and doesn't make any crucial mistakes. Banks had a breakthrough game last week, but it remains to be seen whether he is finally grasping Brian Billick's system or if it was a one-week outstanding performance. He cannot make a lot of silly mistakes against this Pittsburgh defense and he must play within the system, taking what the Steelers give him.

  • They jump out to an early lead. The Steelers are reeling right now and any adversity early in this game could turn their usually loyal fans against them. For the Ravens, scoring early would not only fluster the Steelers, but it would give them a boost of confidence in a stadium that is usually difficult to play in.

  • They stop RB Jerome Bettis and make Pittsburgh one-dimensional on offense. Although Mike Tomczak does a decent job throwing the football, the current Steelers live and die with the run game and stopping Jerome Bettis will make Pittsburgh one-dimensional, which should play into the hands of a very athletic and speedy Raven defense.

    Pittsburgh will win if...

  • They can get their run game going. Jerome must have a huge day against a very active Raven defense. Pittsburgh cannot afford to be one-dimensional and force QB Mike Tomczak to win the game.

  • They blitz QB Tony Banks and force bad decisions. Although Banks played well last week, he has a tendency to throw the ball into crowds when pressured. The Steelers need to create turnovers and give their own struggling offense a short field to work with. They cannot afford to give Banks time to throw the football and build his confidence.

  • They have early success. Home field advantage is no longer a factor in Three Rivers Stadium for the Steelers, and it would really help them to get the home crowd into the game early. This is a team that is not playing with a lot of confidence, and early success against the Ravens will give them something to build on.

    The War Room edge
    Both of these teams come into this game with vastly different mindsets. Baltimore is coming off an unexpected 41-14 win over Tennessee, while Pittsburgh is really struggling after a 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay. The Steelers are not a very explosive offensive football team, and even though they are playing with emotion on defense, they seem to be wearing down and cannot make big plays on either side of the ball. The Ravens will try to build on QB Tony Banks' excellent effort last weekend, and if they can score early in this one and force the Steeler crowd to get restless and a little angry, they could steal the game. The Steelers are no longer invincible at home, and while Baltimore has more big-play explosiveness, it is inconceivable that Bill Cowher will let this team continue to slide. Look for Pittsburgh to have a one-week reprieve from a very disappointing season and to bring Tony Banks and the Ravens back to reality.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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