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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Patriots at Colts


New England offense vs. Indianapolis defense
PATRIOTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 24
Pass 6
Tot. Yds. 11
Scoring 15
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 37
   
COLTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 17
Total yds. allowed 15
# of Ints. 9
# of Sacks 32
Turnover differential -2
The film sessions must be grueling for offensive coordinator Ernie Zampese and his entire unit. The problems are widespread, but all the heat has been placed on QB Drew Bledsoe. Watch the film and it is evident that teams across the league have come up with the answer to a Patriot offense that has the potential to put 30-plus points on the board every time out.

The Colts have been doing some different things up front, as well as in their secondary, to generate pressure and force teams to run the ball to win, but throw everything out on Sunday. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio knows his unit has been vulnerable whenever teams decide to abandon the run and take their chances with multiple receiver sets, so Fangio will study the film of New England's last five opponents and take a similar approach.

After five games, Terry Glenn had an NFL high 37 catches for 636 yards. In the next six games, teams have concentrated their coverage on taking the veteran out of the game, doubling him and applying press coverage at the line. It's worked as Glenn has been held to 16 catches for 309 yards over the past six weeks -- a stretch in which the Patriots went 2-4.

Teams have also been playing physical, press coverage on New England's other three-receivers (Shawn Jefferson, Tony Simmons and Troy Brown), which has taken the undersized, speedy corps out of their games. The key to this defense is pressure. Zampese's passing game is based on timing, but it also requires the quarterback time in the pocket to throw.

Teams are pressing the receivers to take them out of their routes, which basically eliminates the timing of the passing game because the receivers are not able to make their proper cuts and get to the spot on the field that Bledsoe expects them to be. New England has tried a lot of different options to counter this pressure up front and press on the receiving corps, but nothing has worked.

The running game is not the answer, despite the fact that they ran the ball for 108 yards on 36 carries Sunday night against the Cowboys, because they simply do not have the personnel to run the ball consistently without using it as more of a complementary weapon to the passing game.

Kevin Faulk is coming into his own as a back and Terry Allen is back into playing shape and is running well, but this team is predicated on throwing the ball to win, and against a Colt defense that is only allowing 102.8 yards per game rushing, the Patriots are going to have to get their passing attack on track.

Indianapolis offense vs. New England defense
COLTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 16
Pass 3
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 3
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 12
   
PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 17
vs. Pass 9
Total yds. allowed 10
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential -2
It's no secret anymore; the Colts offense is the most balanced and adaptable unit in the league. Peyton Manning is playing like a ten-year veteran, while Edgerrin James has established himself as one of the elite backs in the league. Their ability to strike from anywhere on the field with so many different options sets them apart from just about every offense in the league.

New England had little luck against the Colts in their first meeting at Foxboro, allowing 223 yards passing and 121 yards on the ground. The two biggest thorns in the Patriots side were James, who rushed for 118 yards, and WR Marvin Harrison, catching seven passes for 105 yards and three touchdowns.

The return of MLB Ted Johnson gave the Patriot defense a much bigger presence inside against the run and allowed the outside linebacker to be more versatile last week against the Cowboys, instead of concerning itself with stacking the middle of the field to help out the undersized rookie MLB Andy Katzenmoyer. This will help the Patriots on Sunday, because it will allow OLB's Ted Bruschi and Chris Slade to do a better job of containing James as a runner as well as a receiver out of the backfield, but the Patriots are still going to find the chore of shutting down James to be near impossible.

New England, as strong as they are at the cornerback position, is going to need a heavy pass rush on Manning if they are to have a chance in pass defense. Indianapolis has allowed just 12 sacks in 12 games, which does not bode well for a New England pass rush that has been sporadic throughout the season.

The biggest matchups are going to be off the edges, where New England will look to combine the upfield pursuit of their defensive end with an outside linebacker blitz package to split the guard/tackle alignment.

OT Tarik Glenn has been magnificent in protection this season, but after showing signs of fatigue last week when he gave up a sack to DE Rich Owens, Willie McGinnest is going to have to make his presence felt as a speed rusher. This is a critical matchup, and one the Colts can win. McGinnest has been the Patriots biggest presence in the pass rush this season, and if Glenn can take McGinnest out of the game like he has done to so many other great defensive ends this season, it will give Manning that much more time to utilize his offensive weapons.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category NE IND
Punt return avg. 19 15
Kickoff return avg. 6 11
Opp. punt return avg. 21 31
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 26 22
Time of possession 27 11
Adam Vinatieri continues to handle his duties well as the teams' kickoff and field goal kicker. Vinatieri has done an excellent job of handling the conditions at Foxboro Stadium and went another 2-for-2 last Sunday night against the Cowboys. Lee Johnson has had a disappointing second half of the season, now averaging just 41.5-yards per punt, but he has only allowed 23.6% of his punts to be returned. The return teams have been excellent the past few weeks with the emergence of Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk as threats.

Mike Vanderjagt has been a huge surprise for the Colts this season. Vanderjagt is now 26-of-30 on the season after nailing two critical kicks of over 46-yards last week against the Dolphins. Terrence Wilkins has cooled down after an enormous start to the season as the teams' return man. He is now averaging 24.0-yards per kickoff return and 9.5-yards per punt return.

Key matchups
  • New England WR Shawn Jefferson vs. Indianapolis CB Jeff Burris
    Jefferson has excellent speed and is very capable of stretching defenses vertically. The problem for New England is that they have had little protection in the passing game, so Jefferson's speed has been neutralized. Burris showed last week against the Dolphins that he is vulnerable in single-man coverage down the field, allowing Tony Martin to gain on him on a lot of "9-routes." On a Patriot offense that is in desperate need of some big plays out of their receiving corps, look to this matchup to possibly provide some fireworks.

  • New England FB Tony Carter vs. Indianapolis MLB Mike Barber
    Carter has not been as productive as a lead blocker as the Patriots would like him to be. Carter has all the tools, but he has not gotten in great position and seems to lack great leg drive at the point of attack. Carter is going to have to pick up Barber in the middle of the field if the Patriots are going to be able to run the ball between the tackles. Barber has been active all season long against the run, and should have little trouble in this matchup.

  • Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. New England OLB Ted Bruschi
    James' big-play ability as a runner as well as a receiver is no longer questioned, and has become the backbone of the Colts' balanced offensive attack. Bruschi is the Patriots' cover linebacker and is generally on the strong side of the field against the run. Bruschi is going to have his hands full in this matchup, and do not be surprised if the Patriots have to use a member of the secondary to contain James as a receiver out of the backfield.

    New England will win if...
  • The receiver corps provides some big plays. The Patriots, and especially Drew Bledsoe, are desperately searching for some big plays out of its receiving corps. New England needs to restructure its routes in the passing game if they are to neutralize the pass rush. The Patriots need to shorten their wideouts routes and allow Bledsoe to work the middle, underneath area more to free up his speedy receivers.

  • LB Ted Johnson shores up the middle of the Patriots defense versus the run. Johnson showed how much of a presence he can be in the middle of the field against the run last week against the Cowboys. However, the challenge gets even larger this week against a Colts offense that is averaging 106.4 yards per game on the ground. Johnson is going to have to be a force in the middle in order for New England to play honest against the run.

  • FS Chris Carter does not get caught peeking on play action. Carter plays a critical role in this game, because it is he that the Colts will prey on offensively. Indianapolis has created such balance on offense because of their ability to run the football to set up the pass. Teams have been so concerned with Edgerrin James ability to break open a game, that they are overcompensating their safeties and getting beat in the deep third. Carter is going to have to stay home on Sunday, giving the Patriots corners help in the deep third and only helping in run support when he is absolutely sure it is not a play action.

    Indianapolis will win if...

  • The offense gets TE's Ken Dilger and Marcus Pollard more involved in the passing game versus the blitz. Peyton Manning obviously has great weapons in his passing arsenal, but he is going to need his tight ends/H-backs to give him great looks in the middle of the field against the blitz in order to exploit the area vacated by the blitzing linebackers. New England is going to be aggressive in their pass rush, and they have the cornerbacks to hold up in single-man coverage, which means that the safety valve over the middle is going to play a critical role in Indianapolis' success throwing the ball.

  • OT Tarik Glenn protects Peyton Manning's backside. This is a critical matchup, and one the Colts can win. DE Willie McGinnest has been the Patriots biggest presence in the pass rush this season, and if Glenn can take McGinnest out of the game like he has done to so many other great defensive ends this season, it will give Manning that much more time to utilize his offensive weapons.

  • Defensive coordinator Tom Moore presents a blitz package that disrupts the timing of the Patriot passing game. The Patriots passing game is obviously out of sync, and is struggling mightily with the blitz. Drew Bledsoe is making ill-advised throws under pressure, and the Patriot receivers are not doing a good enough job of picking up the hot-reads. Moore is going to have to dig up the New York Jets film against New England to mirror Bill Belichick's defensive pressure scheme in order to get to Bledsoe.

    The War Room edge
    If there was ever a game that could turn around an entire franchise, this is one for the New England Patriots. The Patriots travel to Indianapolis to take on what is undoubtedly the most feared and respected team in the AFC. The Colts are doing it all. They show great balance on offense, playmaking ability on defense and are even winning games with special teams' execution. The Patriots cannot afford to drop another game in the standings, but we are afraid that is exactly what they are going to do. Drew Bledsoe will come out of his shell some, but the shootout is won by Peyton Manning, who has been more reliable, and has more reliable weapons in his arsenal.

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