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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Cowboys at Saints


Dallas offense vs. New Orleans defense
COWBOYS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 9
Pass 11
Tot. Yds. 7
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 22
Sacks allowed 31
   
SAINTS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 20
Total yds. allowed 19
# of Ints. 25
# of Sacks 35
Turnover differential -3
The Cowboys have shown an ability to overcome all sorts of obstacles on the offensive side of the ball this season, but when QB Troy Aikman is not on top of his game, the Dallas offense really struggles. Last Sunday against the Jets, Aikman had a terrible day, going 12-for-28 for 158 yards, with only one touchdown and two interceptions. This, against a Jet defense that is one of the worst in the league at pressuring the quarterback.

Coach Chan Gailey's experiment of playing Deion Sanders at WR was a non-factor last week against New York, as Sanders finished the game without a catch. Against New Orleans on Friday, expect the Cowboys to get back to the basics with RB Emmitt Smith, whose health is improving each week. Last week, Smith had 19 carries for 108 yards against the Jets, and will likely see more carries in a game that the Cowboys must win.

Dallas will look to test the middle of a New Orleans defense that is starting MLB Phil Clarke, who was on the practice squad earlier in the season, and LDT Austin Robbins, who started his first game last weekend at Baltimore. Aikman should again look to utilize his TEs because of Dallas' lack of a solid possession receiver on underneath routes.

New Orleans needs to bounce back after taking a beating last Sunday in Baltimore. The Saints' defense didn't play that poorly, but were betrayed by an offense that could muster only eight first downs and 11 rushing yards.

One weakness of the New Orleans' defense this season has been the consistency of the team's corners. RDC Fred Weary was burned repeatedly by Quadry Ismael last weekend, and gets to face Ismael's older brother this week. Weary has problems turning his hips and running with faster receivers, so look for Dallas to test him early with Ismael.

RDT La'Roi Glover had an unbelievable game last week against the Ravens, with 11 tackles and three sacks. Glover will find the going much tougher this week against Dallas LOG Solomon Page and OC Mark Stepnoski.

As a team, the Saints need to gang up on the Dallas running game and make Smith earn his yards. Doing so will expose the secondary to some single coverage situations, so look for defensive coordinator Zaven Yaralian to line up LDC Ashley Ambrose against Ismael. The Saints will have a better chance containing Ismael this way, and will also be able to put more pressure on Aikman using linebackers and safeties.

New Orleans offense vs. Dallas defense
SAINTS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 22
Pass 17
Tot. Yds. 19
Scoring 28
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 39
   
COWBOYS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 26
Total yds. allowed 20
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 24
Turnover differential +10
After a total of 11 yards on the ground last week, it is apparent that New Orleans desperately needs a healthy RB Ricky Williams. Williams has missed four straight games with turf toe, and needs to be in the line-up if the Saints are to have any success on the offensive side of the football.

Without an effective Williams, Dallas' linebackers will play well off the line of scrimmage, taking away the underneath routes of TE Cam Cleeland, one of the Saints' most potent offensive weapons. Cleeland is a nice combination of size and speed, and if he is played close to the line of scrimmage by Dallas' linebackers, he is capable of quickly getting separation and making some big gains.

If Williams is able to go, look for the Saints to establish the run between the tackles to neutralize Dallas' speedy linebackers, who pursue well sideline-to-sideline. LOT Willie Roaf will be matched-up against Dallas RDE Kavika Pittman, who is quick but undersized and will be at a significant disadvantage against Roaf, particularly in running situations.

Coach Mike Ditka has hinted that he might go with inexperienced rookie QB Jake Dellahome. If such is the case, expect an anemic New Orleans' offense to get even worse.

Dallas' defense has been slowed by injuries for most of the season. The defensive line, which in years past has been a point of strength for the Cowboys, has been shuffled around to compensate for a rash of injuries. Leon Lett, who has been a Pro-Bowl defensive tackle, is now playing LDE, and DE Kavika Pittman, who was a pass rush-specialist, has been forced to play more frequently against the run because rookie RDE Ebeneezer Ekuban has been ineffective in running situations.

The Dallas secondary, anchored by RDC Deion Sanders, was picked apart last week by Jets QB Ray Lucas. Most of the secondary's problems cannot be attributed to Sanders, but rather to the lack of a healthy, consistent corner on the other side of the field. Kevin Smith, the team's regular starter at LDC, was back in the line-up this week, but has been slowed by a nagging hamstring injury, and it showed against the Jets. Smith is questionable for this week's game, and if he plays, look for the Saints to test him early with either WR Keith Poole or WR Eddie Kennison, both of whom have deep speed to stretch a defense.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category DAL NO
Punt return avg. 6 26
Kickoff return avg. 15 17
Opp. punt return avg. 26 4
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 11 21
Time of possession 3 11
In order to stay close in this game, New Orleans will need to have an outstanding performance from its special teams units. P Tommy Barnhardt, who did a stellar job punting away from Ravens' PR Jermaine Lewis, will have to again be sharp, as Dallas PR Sanders is dangerous every time he touches the football. New Orleans WR/PR Kennison needs to start showing why the Saints gave away a second round draft pick during the off-season to get him. Dallas KR Eddie Murray is solid from 35-yards and in, but struggles from beyond that range and is a liability at a point in the season when the Cowboys desperately need to convert every scoring opportunity.

Key matchups
  • Cowboys WR Raghib Ismael vs. Saints DC Fred Weary
    Ismael has developed nice chemistry with QB Troy Aikman since the Dallas offense has had to put the likes of Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith on the shelf. His production has soared over the course of the past few weeks because of the newfound confidence Aikman has instilled in the speedy wide receiver. Weary will need to concentrate on is respecting Ismael's quickness and try to use heady play to make up for the speed he'll give up when he lines up across from Ismael.

  • Saints TE Cam Cleeland vs. Cowboys OLB Dexter Coakley
    The Saints are finally starting to get the ball to Cleeland, who brings exceptional size and speed to the New Orleans tight end position. The Cowboys Coakley covers the pass as good as any linebacker in the NFL, but he gives up a few inches to the 6'4" Cleeland. Using his speed, Coakley will try to beat Cleeland to the football, because Cleeland is too strong off the LOS for Coakley to try and slow him off the snap.

  • Saints DE Wayne Martin vs. Cowboys OT Erik Williams
    Williams isn't the player he once was, but he matches up well with Glover because of his overwhelming strength. Glover will only be disruptive if he can beat Williams off the ball and get into the Dallas backfield. The key for Williams will be to get off the ball with great burst so he can create immediate contact and use his power to drive Glover off the LOS.

    Dallas will win if...
  • Aikman locates his tight ends frequently. Dallas is having trouble developing a presence on the ground as a result of Smith's nagging injuries and Chris Warren's insufficient play. They Cowboys have been forced to throw more then they'd like, but haven't been taking advantage of the size and strength of Bjornson and LaFleur. New Orleans has exceptional coverage corners, so the tight end will be a viable option for Aikman, as they'll not only be open, but will open up the entire offense.

  • The Cowboys front seven can neutralize Saints back Wilmont Perry. Blitz pick-up has been a problem for the Saints offensive line, however, lately, Perry's ability to gain yardage on the ground has protected New Orleans against the blitz. If the Dallas front seven can shut down Perry it will give them the opportunity to tee off on Tolliver using their blitz package.

  • Aikman is provided ample time when throwing. Since returning from his injury, Troy Aikman has been jumpy in the pocket, concerned more with the opposing rush than with his own receivers. The Cowboy offensive line must let Aikman feel comfortable when passing, which they can only achieve by giving him ample time.

    New Orleans will win if...

  • The Saints WRs can stretch the field. Kennison and Co. will try to work the deep routes early, in order to give Tolliver the chance to hit Cleeland underneath. Perry out of the back field will also be an option; provided New Orleans wideouts can threaten with deep routes.

  • The Saints defensive front can hit Aikman early. Expect to see the Saints rush linebackers going at Aikman early -- hitting him hard and often whether he has the ball or not. If the Saints can put Aikman on the carpet, New Orleans might be able to stay in the football game.

  • Tolliver can complete passes early. The Saints have been relegated to a quick-hitting passing game with the immobile Tolliver under center. An offense consisting of three- and five-step drops needs rhythm to work, so completing passes early and getting on track is crucial to the success of Tolliver and the Saints.

    The War Room edge
    This a must-win game for the Cowboys, who currently reside on the NFC playoff bubble. However, the Saints organization is more concerned with the number of people willing to head to the Superdome on Christmas Eve to represent the Big Easy in front of a national television audience than winning. Expect Dallas to pressure Tolliver early, rattling him and forcing errant throws. Tolliver was awful last week in Baltimore and Ditka has hinted at reserve QB Jake Delhomme possibly getting some time. If nothing else Dellhomme will be a curveball for Dallas defensive coordinator Dave Campo, as there isn't a book out on the undrafted rookie yet. Emmitt Smith's return will prove crucial, as Smith usually delivers in big games, injured or not. Dallas will keep their defense off the field by establishing a ground game with Smith and win in a low-scoring affair because they have to.

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