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Thursday, December 23
War Room: Bears at Rams


Chicago offense vs. St. Louis defense
BEARS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 24
Pass 5
Tot. Yds. 9
Scoring 21
Int's allowed 19
Sacks allowed 32
   
RAMS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 1
vs. Pass 19
Total yds. allowed 10
# of Ints. 25
# of Sacks 50
Turnover differential +9
The Bears continue to get solid offensive production out of their offense despite the revolving door at quarterback. QB Cade McNown was spectacular in his first complete game, becoming the first rookie in franchise history to throw for over 300 yards.

The area where McNown was most impressive was his patience in the system. He has always demonstrated great field vision but his willingness to take what the Lions' defense gave him was the key factor. The Bears had great success targeting Detroit's cornerbacks with outside receivers Marcus Robinson and Bobby Engram, who combined for 21 receptions, 264 yards, and four touchdowns.

The Rams haven't faced a wide-open attack like Chicago's all season and they'll have a difficult time adjusting to the numerous formations and wrinkles in offensive coordinator Gary Crowton's scheme. Nickel players DC Taje Allen, LB Mike Jones and LB Charlie Clemons will all play huge roles on Sunday for the Rams. For example, Jones will sometimes find himself matched up in coverage against wide receivers such as Curtis Conway and he'll have to hold up. Although Jones has a great feel in coverage and runs extremely well, the Bears feel Conway can lose him on short crossing routes.

This game will not be business as usual St. Louis LDE Kevin Carter. With left-handed McNown under center, Carter won't simply be let loose to rush the passer. Instead, he will be responsible to keep backside contain on bootlegs when plays are designed to get McNown outside the pocket. If Carter is overaggressive, McNown will make the Rams pay with his feet, as he did last week against Detroit by rushing for 36 yards on nine carries.

The Giants did their best to play smash-mouth football in order to get the Rams' speedy defense out of their game. That tactic obviously didn't work, as St. Louis took a pair of interceptions back for scores.

Chicago will pound the ball behind a gritty offensive line, but the difference this Sunday is that the Bears actually have a running back that can carry out the game plan. RB Curtis Enis, whose long carry on the season is just 19 yards, doesn't need to be spectacular, but he must run effectively on first down to prevent third-and-long situations and he needs to be a factor in short-yardage situations. St. Louis' run defense, which has allowed only 76.4 yards per game on the ground, held strong on three straight plays from the two-yard line last week, forcing the Giants to settle for a field goal.

St. Louis offense vs. Chicago defense
RAMS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 1
Tot. Yds. 1
Scoring 1
Int's allowed 10
Sacks allowed 28
   
BEARS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 25
vs. Pass 29
Total yds. allowed 30
# of Ints. 13
# of Sacks 36
Turnover differential -1
The Bears will most likely get a huge break in the second half when Vermeil opts to sit some of his explosive skill players in order to save them for the playoffs. One guy who could go the distance is QB Kurt Warner, who has made his intentions to play this week be known. With a single touchdown on Sunday, the Rams will break the franchise record for most points scored with 467.

The Rams received a huge effort last week from backup OT Ryan Tucker, who filled in admirably after Orlando Pace was ejected. St. Louis is hoping that Tucker's play will inspire the rest of the unit this week when they face an inconsistent Bears' pass rush.

Against Detroit, Chicago got good pressure from their inside duo of DTs Jim Flanigan and Mike Wells, who collapsed the pocket and forced Lion quarterbacks outside, into the waiting arms of defensive ends and linebackers. The Bears' front four did a tremendous job of taking away passing lanes with their outstretched arms -- something that must be repeated against a pocket passer like Warner.

If Warner is able to get the ball off in rhythm, his receivers had better do a better job of holding onto it. St. Louis receivers dropped five passes against the Giants, two by Az Hakim and a costly one in the endzone by Torry Holt. The Rams should have success against a suspect Bears' secondary that was bailed out by five Lion drops last Sunday.

Look for Chicago to go with a lot of deep zone coverage to discourage WR Issac Bruce from running free. The Bears' pass defense, which has received much better play from FS Chris Hudson the past two weeks, is giving up 234.7 yards per game and should benefit from experience against explosive passing teams like Washington, Green Bay, and Minnesota.

St. Louis RB Marshall Faulk enters this game needing only 294 yards from scrimmage to break the all-time league record set by Barry Sanders in 1997. The guy on the spot for Chicago this week will be MLB Barry Minter. Because the Rams spread the field with so many multiple-receiver looks, it will force Minter to beat blockers to the hole -- something that has never been an area of strength. St. Louis' stretch offense, with Faulk as the centerpiece, will make it imperative that the Bears tackle well in the open field.

The release of DC Tom Carter two weeks ago was a sign to members of the secondary that head coach Dick Jauron would not tolerate sloppy tackling and unwillingness to support the run. There has been a noticeable improvement in the Bears' run defense since rookie Jerry Azumah was added to the nickel package.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category CHI STL
Punt return avg. 2 11
Kickoff return avg. 11 1
Opp. punt return avg. 9 5
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 1 30
Time of possession 16 5
Chicago's coverage teams did an excellent job last week against Detroit's Desmond Howard but they'll face an even greater task on Sunday. St. Louis PR Az Hakim and KOR Tony Horne rank ninth and first in the league respectably but it has been some time since either busted loose for a score. The Rams tightened up their coverage last week against the Giants, rendering dangerous Tiki Barber a non-factor on punts and allowing a long of just 28 yards on kickoffs. St. Louis P Mike Horan dropped three punts inside the 20 and he'll need another strong effort in terms of placement to win the battle of field position. Up-and-down Bears' P Todd Sauerbrun got great hangtime last week but he will need better distance on Sunday.

Key matchups
  • St. Louis OC Mark Gruttadauria vs. Chicago DTs Flanigan & Wells
    The Bears will be in for a long day if they don't collapse the pocket and force Warner to make plays on the move. They did an excellent job of doing this in last week's win over the Lions but Gruttadauria anchors a much better overall line. Gruttadauria is an undersized, finesse-type player that could have problems with Chicago's physical inside tandem.

  • Chicago WR Curtis Conway vs. St. Louis secondary
    With Marcus Robinson and Bobby Engram stealing the show last week, Conway could be the forgotten man on Sunday. If the Rams roll coverage Robinson or Engram's way, Conway should be able to exploit most single-man matchups underneath.

  • Chicago QB Cade McNown vs. St. Louis DEs Carter & Wistrom
    Detroit was able to get good pressure on McNown last Sunday but the rookie displayed nice pocket awareness and sidestepped out of traffic. St. Louis' defensive ends must play under control -- concentrating on keeping contain on the outside. McNown, who rushed for 36 yards against the Lions, could hurt the Rams with his feet.

    Chicago will win if...
  • They play sound fundamental football. Tackling will be the name of the game on Sunday. The Rams continue to embarrass opponents with gaudy YAC (yards after catch) numbers. Aside from SS Parrish, tackling is not the strong suit of Chicago's secondary. They need to keep plays in front of them, close quickly, and wrap-up the receiver.

  • The offense grinds out yards and controls the clock. The two key statistics that Chicago must dominate are total offensive plays and time of possession. While they do have an explosive offense capable of putting up huge numbers, head coach Dick Jauron realizes that over the course of a game his rookie quarterback is more likely to make the big mistake than St. Louis' Warner.

  • They aren't sloppy with the football. Chicago cannot afford to hand St. Louis' opportunistic defense any gifts. Not only is Rams' defense capable of scoring itself, turnovers also give the offense a short field to operate from. Carelessness will only help ignite the hometown crowd.

    St. Louis will win if...

  • They dictate the tempo of the game. As they do every week, the Rams want to turn this one into a fast-break game. More times than not, they are successful doing so. Dick Vermeil's team must adhere to its usual formula for success: score early, gamble on defense, create turnovers, win big.

  • The offense is more efficient on third down. Last week's 4-of-12 performance on third down will not get it done on a weekly basis. By his standards, QB Warner had somewhat of an off-day against the Giants but he should rebound against a susceptible Bears secondary. Warner is by far the league's top-rated passer on third down this season.

  • They put the Bears away early. Chicago is a dangerous team because they are playing for nothing other than pride at this point. The last thing St. Louis can afford to do is let the Bears hang around until the fourth quarter when a fluke play could decide the game. They must come out focused on the task at hand and overwhelm Chicago in the first quarter.

    The War Room edge
    After last Sunday's dominating performance against the Lions, QB Cade McNown and the Bears could be primed to challenge the Rams. Don't bet on it. Playing in front of a hometown crowd is much easier than taking on the top team in the NFC at their place. St. Louis' defense will rattle him into a couple of early mistakes and the offense will exploit a suspect secondary. Dick Vermeil and the boys continue their march through an improbable season.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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