Autumn rugby internationals: Judging overreactions from Week 3

Week 3 of this year's Autumn Nations Series saw the northern hemisphere hit back at their southern counterparts, with France edging to victory over New Zealand and Ireland staving off an Argentina comeback to hang on for a win.

Still, a convincing win for South Africa at Twickenham and Australia's thumping of Wales meant the southern hemisphere remains on top this autumn. Elsewhere, Scotland stormed to victory over Portugal, and Italy rallied to beat Georgia.

It leaves plenty of food for thought, but are those reactions irrational or legitimate? It's time to judge.

England are heading for a crisis

England's recent Test record is becoming bleaker with each passing week. Saturday's loss to South Africa means Steve Borthwick's side have now lost their last five Test matches -- their worst run since 2018. After Saturday's game, on TNT Sport, the debate turned to whether England are headed for disaster.

"It's too early in the year to be a crisis. We've got time," former England flanker Courtney Lawes said. However, his former international teammate Ugo Monye disagreed. "It's not far from a crisis," he said. "We're going to end this Autumn Nations one out of four. That's awful. When we look at this year, we'll have won four out of 10 matches."

Verdict: OVERREACTION

While England will surely beat Japan at Twickenham next Sunday, up next after that at the start of the Six Nations is Ireland in Dublin, then France at home. It's hardly a straightforward run of matches. But crisis? Not quite yet.

England sympathisers will point to the narrow margins which saw them lose to New Zealand and Australia. Win both of them, and the defeat to the Boks would be re-framed: it's a team in evolution who are heading on the right path. But alas, that is not England's way at the moment. The reality is England are not wanting for effort, but they are simply not quite there with the best in the world.

Absent players like Alex Mitchell and Ollie Chessum have seen their stocks rise as they are sorely missed, but there is not yet the depth there to cope without them. Perhaps it is time for the RFU to rethink its overseas-based-players policy.

There is already a storm around England this week: Eddie Jones is coming to town, England's players are blaming themselves and Borthwick is looking for progress. But amid all the talk is the basic reality that England aren't -- at the moment -- as good as teams like South Africa.

It is too early to say England are in crisis, although it's obvious to see why it is a topic of discussion. -- Tom Hamilton

France should be Six Nations favourites

France earned a thrilling 30-29 victory over New Zealand on Saturday at the Stade de France -- their third straight win over the All Blacks. Led by captain Antoine Dupont, and thanks to the boot of fly-half Thomas Ramos, France produced a performance that had home fans on the edge of their seats from the first whistle to the last.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

While Ireland have not been at their best this month, it would be premature to say they are not the side to beat, with a host of world-class players at their disposal. France did an excellent job in seeing off the All Blacks in Paris on Saturday, and they should take great confidence from the result, looking at times like they had a bit of their old swagger back, even if the performance wasn't flawless.

They produced a mature second half, keeping New Zealand try-less while getting two of their own. While the referee had a bearing on the end of the match with a host of penalties blown, the last 10 minutes will be extremely satisfying for France, as they held on in a tight finish.

The return of Dupont cannot be overstated, and if he shows his best form, they can definitely challenge Ireland. The French captain's sentiments were telling post-match when he said the win will "lay the foundation for the squad."

France are back on the right path, but they still need time to catch Ireland, who will also be without British & Irish Lions coach Andy Farrell. It will also give France confidence that they managed something England and Ireland could not do: Beat New Zealand.

A strong win over Argentina --- who are no pushovers -- next week, and Les Bleus will be in a good place heading into the Six Nations. -- James Regan

Argentina should target victory at the 2027 Rugby World Cup

Argentina put in their latest solid performance on Friday in a tense 22-19 defeat to Ireland. This was almost a comeback victory for Argentina, who trailed 22-9 at half-time, only to bring it back in the second half while not allowing the hosts to score a point.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

While this may seem a little hysterical, stick with me on this one. This year, Argentina have beaten the All Blacks in Wellington, defeated South Africa 29-28 in Santiago (albeit with Manie Libbok missing a last-minute penalty) and swiped aside Australia in a 67-27 drubbing. On Friday, they came within three points of knocking over Ireland in Dublin, and had they managed to keep cool heads -- Francisco Gómez Kodela got sin-binned in the 74th minute -- they could have won.

The Pumas are building beautifully under the serene Felipe Contepomi and have one of the world's most exciting players in Juan Martin Gonzalez. They have a wonderful freedom to their backs play and a formidable pack to match. All they have to do is find a way to move through these stages of matches where they make unfortunate errors -- ill-discipline; Tomas Albornoz's missed drop-goal -- and they will routinely knock over their Tier 1 opponents.

This verdict is more so in the hope we get a shake-up in the world order in 2027, but it is not an overreaction if they continue on this trajectory. -- Tom Hamilton

Australia can win second-ever grand slam

Australia walked into Cardiff's Principality Stadium on Sunday with fans expecting them to beat a defeat-riddled Wales side. It's exactly what they did. Joe Schmidt's side ran out 52-20 winners as hooker Matt Faessler and fullback Tom Wright both scored a hat trick of tries. The Wallabies had a poor run of results themselves this year, but this weekend's result notched a second straight Test win, with clashes against Scotland and Ireland still to go this autumn.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The mere suggestion that the Wallabies would be capable of such an achievement even just last month would have been absurd, but after two stirring wins -- albeit in contrasting fashion -- they are halfway there.

Sunday's game was both a record points haul and margin against the Welsh away from home, and it is all down to Schmidt. His rebuild made steady progress earlier this year, but that patience and management are now being rewarded by a group that has averaged 47 points in their last two Test outings.

Next week's opponents, Scotland, are undoubtedly a step up in class -- they have also beaten Australia in three of their last four meetings -- but buoyed by their last-minute heroics at Twickenham and Sunday's complete dismantling of Wales, the Wallabies have the wind in their sails, even if Schmidt is determined to temper the enthusiasm.

"It's too far away to contemplate probably," Schmidt said. "We have talked about regenerating well tonight and making sure we don't miss our flight to Edinburgh; get the front half of the week right and see what comes in the back half."

The Wallabies will return to being underdogs for the Murrayfield clash, which is not a bad position to be in against a Scotland side deservedly ranked above them. While Australia have probably already exceeded expectations for this tour, adding a third straight road victory and seventh Test win for the year overall would really be an achievement worth singing about.

It would also set up a huge clash in Dublin six days later, one with multiple British & Irish Lions flashpoints.

Forty years on from Australia's only grand slam, a team that featured all-time greats Mark Ella, Nick Farr-Jones, David Campese and Simon Poidevin, this crop of players has the tools and temperament to etch their own piece of Wallabies folklore. -- Sam Bruce

Welsh rugby needs huge re-think

There is little hope left in Cardiff this autumn. The record is grim: 11 straight Test defeats, setting a record as the country's worst-ever losing run, and there is little sign of a turnaround anytime soon.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Who would solve a problem like Wales? Warren Gatland looked exhausted in his post-match interview after Wales' thumping loss to Australia. It was a tough watch. For all the glorious moments he has led them to, this is his lowest point in rugby.

There is still a competitive glint in his eye and a genuine belief they are on the cusp of getting this sorted, but the entire time he has been with Wales, Gatland has been doing this with one hand tied behind his back.

His coaching team isn't as good as it was in the old regime, the regions are a mess and he is trying to usher in a new era of players at a time when legends have passed into punditry, but fundamentally -- as he well knows -- this is a results business. If Wales make changes, it needs to be wholesale, structural change above and around Gatland. This isn't the responsibility of one man -- this annus horribilis was an accident waiting to happen and is a result of the system, not Gatland.

It should be suits higher up in the WRU who are fielding questions about redundancy alongside Gatland. Nigel Walker is complicit in this nadir, as is chief executive Abi Tierney. Gatland needs help, not hanging out to dry.

Sacking Gatland is not the answer. If you bring in a new head, you might get a momentary bounce back in results, but what Wales need is a seismic overhaul and rethink. Gatland can help that process. -- Tom Hamilton

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