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Chris Harden
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257d
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Women's Bubble Watch: March Madness bracket predictions
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Women's College Basketball, NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Florida State Seminoles, Miami Hurricanes, Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Marquette Golden Eagles, Villanova Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Maryland Terrapins, Penn State Lady Lions, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Oregon State Beavers, Utah Utes, Washington State Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, California Golden Bears, Washington Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Princeton Tigers, UNLV Lady Rebels, Drake Bulldogs, Richmond Spiders, Toledo Rockets, Cleveland State Vikings, Saint Joseph's Hawks, Columbia Lions, Green Bay Phoenix, VCU Rams, George Mason Patriots, Ball State Cardinals, Belmont Bruins, California Baptist Lancers, Santa Clara Broncos, Missouri State Lady Bears, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, North Texas Mean Green, UAlbany Great Danes, Maine Black Bears, Temple Owls, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, High Point Panthers, Eastern Washington Eagles, Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine, Stony Brook Seawolves, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Fairfield Stags, Norfolk State Spartans, Sacred Heart Pioneers, UT Martin Skyhawks, Holy Cross Crusaders, Chattanooga Mocs, Lamar Cardinals, Jackson State Lady Tigers, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Marshall Thundering Herd, Grand Canyon Lopes
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A chaotic final weekend of the regular season in the Power 5 conferences set up women's college basketball for what should be one of the most impactful Champ Weeks we've had in recent years. The Pac-12 and SEC tournaments pit multiple bubble teams against each other in the first round, and the Pac-12, ACC and Big Ten tournaments will have big implications on No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. But all eyes are on the bubble, too, and which teams end up with at-large invitations from the women's NCAA selection committee. Using the ESPN Analytics' Women's College Basketball Power index (BPI) -- which represents how many points above or below average a team ranks -- we're projecting the bubble. Along with team ratings, BPI generates Strength of Record (SOR), a measure of how impressive each team's record is given its schedule. We're using these tools, as well as the Strength of Schedule (SOS) the committee uses, to determine which teams look like locks to make the 2024 NCAA tournament, which squads should make the field (barring a lot of surprises among automatic NCAA bids) and which teams still have work to do to bolster their résumé in the conference tournaments. We also have projections for how likely teams are to progress to each round of their conference tournaments. Here is our current projection of the bubble:
Teams from expected one-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 27
The bubble: 38 teams for 19 available spots
Should be in: 11 teams
Work to do: 27 teams  ACCLocks NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils Should be in Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels Work to do Miami Hurricanes Team to watch: Last weekend, Miami beat Pitt but dropped a heartbreaker against Georgia Tech at home. The Hurricanes' SOR dropped five spots to 71, and their BPI dipped out of the top 50. In Charlie Creme's latest Bracketology, they slid from a 9-seed to a 10-seed and are on the verge of dropping into the Last Four Byes. Miami, a No. 9 seed in the ACC tournament, opens against UNC, and BPI gives the Hurricanes just a 33% chance to win. If they have a disappointing showing and lose in their final opportunity to impress the committee, do they have enough on their résumé to survive a few upsets in the mid-major tournaments? BPI gives the Hurricanes a 6% chance to win two games in the ACC tournament, but a run like that would likely solidify Miami's NCAA tournament bid.
Big 12Locks Texas Longhorns, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers, Oklahoma Sooners Should be in Iowa State Cyclones Work to do Kansas Jayhawks Team to watch: Kansas has used February to work its way into a much safer tournament consideration than the Jayhawks were in a month ago. Only Baylor has beaten them since late January, and Kansas boasts wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma during that time. With a top-10 SOS and an 18-11 record, the Jayhawks come in at 57 in SOR. Listed in the Last Four In a week ago, the Wildcats' projected seed jumped up to 9 after the weekend. In the Big 12 tournament, they are a No. 7 seed and open against a BYU team they've already beaten twice; BPI says Kansas has an 80% chance to win. Beating Texas, the Big 12's No. 2 seed, in the next round will be a tough ask, but Kansas should lock up an NCAA invite if it handles business against BYU.
Big EastLocks UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays Should be in Marquette Golden Eagles Work to do Villanova Wildcats Teams to watch: Marquette and Villanova are in precarious situations. Marquette is in the Last Four Byes group, while Villanova is in the First Four Out. As the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds, they face each other in the first round of the Big East tournament. The winner advances to face Big East No. 1 seed UConn, which destroyed both teams during conference play. Will Marquette hang on to its seed if the Golden Eagles are upset by the Wildcats? Can Villanova give an impressive showing against Marquette and hang with UConn enough to push them into the field?
Big TenLocks Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans Should be in Nebraska Cornhuskers Work to do Maryland Terrapins, Penn State Lady Lions, Michigan Wolverines Teams to watch: Maryland and Michigan are currently in the Last Four Byes group. Since dropping consecutive games to fellow bubble teams Michigan and Penn State in late January, Maryland continued a season-long trend of winning the games it was favored in but failing to pull off a truly impressive upset. The Terps' best win might be against a lackluster Penn State, and after getting beaten handily by Indiana, its résumé is right on the edge without many opportunities left. Currently No. 54 in SOR and No. 31 in BPI, Maryland is the Big Ten's No. 8 seed. A loss to Illinois in their opening game of the Big Ten tournament could do in the Terps. Maryland is favored to beat Illinois, but BPI gives it a 14% chance to make it past Big Ten No. 1 seed Ohio State. For Michigan, a close loss to in-state rival Michigan State in mid-February feels like a missed opportunity, when the team was down by two with less than a minute to go but couldn't come away with the upset. The Wolverines are No. 44 in BPI and No. 61 in SOR. An upset over Ohio State early in conference play feels like a long time ago. Michigan's conference tournament opens as the No. 6 seed against the winner of Rutgers/Minnesota, and if the Wolverines win, they'll get a chance at AP No. 12 Indiana. BPI projects a 12% chance to win two and add a marquee win to the résumé.
Pac-12Locks Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Oregon State Beavers, Colorado Buffaloes, Utah Utes Work to do Washington State Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, California Golden Bears, Washington Huskies Teams to watch: All four of these Pac-12 bubble teams land either in the Last Four In or Next Four Out. The first round of the Pac-12 tournament will be absolute fireworks as No. 9 seed Washington State faces 8-seed California, and No. 7 seed Arizona plays 10th-seeded Washington. If the Cougars and Wildcats can win, is it enough to push them into the NCAA tournament come Selection Sunday? Their second-round matchup will be against Pac-12 No. 1 seed Stanford and No. 2 seed USC, respectively, and while Arizona pushed USC to the brink last Thursday, can they repeat the feat in Las Vegas? On the other hand, if California and Washington can pull upsets, will it be enough for their résumé to jump Arizona and Washington State and make it into the field? Washington has fought to get here, with upsets over Utah and Oregon State in its past three games. If the Huskies can add Arizona to the list, is that enough? Or will they need to pull an upset of USC as well?
SECLocks South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide Should be in Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Lady Vols Work to do Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks Teams to watch: The SEC tournament could give us some great storylines and has huge bubble implications, pairing the four teams in the conference with "Work to do." Both games are projected to be close matchups, according to BPI, with Auburn and Texas A&M favored by 58% and 51%, respectively. The winners of each game will be hard pressed to knock off SEC No. 1 seed South Carolina -- the country's only remaining unbeaten Division I team -- or No. 2 seed LSU. But whichever teams win first matchup in the SEC second round on Thursday should have enough to push them onto the selection committee's board.
OtherThe Gonzaga Bulldogs, Princeton Tigers and UNLV Lady Rebels are considered locks from conferences expected to send one team to the NCAA tournament. Additional expected one-bids Maine Black Bears, Temple Owls, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, Eastern Washington Eagles, High Point Panthers, Hawaii Rainbow Wahine, Stony Brook Seawolves, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Fairfield Stags, Norfolk State Spartans, Sacred Heart Pioneers, UT Martin Skyhawks, Holy Cross Crusaders, Chattanooga Mocs, Lamar Cardinals, Jackson State Lady Tigers, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Marshall Thundering Herd, Grand Canyon Lopes Should be in Drake Bulldogs, Richmond Spiders, Toledo Rockets, Cleveland State Vikings Work to do Saint Joseph's Hawks, Columbia Lions, Green Bay Phoenix, VCU Rams, George Mason Patriots, Ball State Cardinals, Belmont Bruins, California Baptist Lancers, Santa Clara Broncos, Missouri State Lady Bears, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, North Texas Mean Green, Albany Great Danes Teams to watch: The most interesting storyline in the mid-majors right now is Columbia's surge into the bubble. Currently sitting in the First Four Out, the Lions have moved on to the bubble radar due to an upset of Princeton at the end of February. Headed into their final conference games, Princeton and Columbia will be the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the Ivy League tournament and are projected to play each other in the championship game. If Columbia can pull off another upset, it will likely solidify two tournament berths for the Ivy League.
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