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Chris Harden
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256d
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Women's Bubble Watch: March Madness bracket predictions
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Women's College Basketball, NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Florida State Seminoles, Miami Hurricanes, Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma Sooners, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Marquette Golden Eagles, Villanova Wildcats, Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Maryland Terrapins, Penn State Lady Lions, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Oregon State Beavers, Utah Utes, Washington State Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, California Golden Bears, Washington Huskies, South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Princeton Tigers, UNLV Lady Rebels, Drake Bulldogs, Richmond Spiders, Toledo Rockets, Cleveland State Vikings, Saint Joseph's Hawks, Columbia Lions, Green Bay Phoenix, VCU Rams, George Mason Patriots, Ball State Cardinals, Belmont Bruins, California Baptist Lancers, Santa Clara Broncos, Missouri State Lady Bears, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, North Texas Mean Green, UAlbany Great Danes, Maine Black Bears, Temple Owls, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, High Point Panthers, Eastern Washington Eagles, Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine, Stony Brook Seawolves, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Fairfield Stags, Norfolk State Spartans, Sacred Heart Pioneers, UT Martin Skyhawks, Holy Cross Crusaders, Chattanooga Mocs, Lamar Cardinals, Jackson State Lady Tigers, South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Marshall Thundering Herd, Grand Canyon Lopes
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Champ Week has been brutal for non-Power 5 teams that were hoping to be in play for at-large bids. Teams such as Cleveland State, Columbia and Saint Joseph's, once hopeful of an invite if they didn't win their conference tournaments, now likely have no such expectations. Portland's upset of Gonzaga in the WCC tournament title game Tuesday means the conference will be a two-bid league as the Bulldogs take a bubble spot. Add impressive play from bubble teams in the Big Ten during their tournament and the bubble is a lot smaller than it looked a week ago. To examine the bubble for the 2024 women's NCAA tournament, we'll use ESPN Analytics' Women's College Basketball Power Index (BPI), which represents how many points above or below average a team is. Along with the team ratings, BPI generates Strength of Record (SOR), a measure of how impressive each team's record is given their schedule. We'll also utilize the Strength of Schedule (SOS) the selection committee uses. Here is our current projection of the bubble through Tuesday's games and the conclusion of every Power 5 conference tournament:
Teams from expected one-bid conferences + Portland: 26
Locks: 38
The bubble: 14 teams for 4 available spots
Projected in: 4 teams
Work to do: 4 teams
Projected out: 7 teams  ACCLocks NC State Wolfpack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Virginia Tech Hokies, Syracuse Orange, Louisville Cardinals, Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels Projected in Miami Hurricanes Case to get in: Miami helped bolster its case during the ACC conference tournament, beating UNC to add an additional quality win to its résumé. The Hurricanes rank No. 68 in SOR, outside the top-50 range that would lock them into a bid. But at No. 48 in BPI, they are still a top-50 team in the country and have one of the most impressive wins of any bubble team with their victory over NC State in January.
Big 12Locks Texas Longhorns, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, West Virginia Mountaineers, Oklahoma Sooners, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks Case to get in: Last week, Kansas and Iowa State were in the "Work to do" and "Should be in" groups, respectively, and both did exactly what they needed to do to lock up at-large invites. Kansas handled business against BYU, and Iowa State went above and beyond, reaching the Big 12 title game and managing to move up a few seeds in Bracketology as well.
Big EastLocks UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Marquette Golden Eagles Case to get in: The Golden Eagles were in the "Should be in" group last week and were able to hold on against Villanova to simultaneously knock the Wildcats off the bubble and lock up their own tournament bid. Currently projected as a No. 11 seed in Bracketology, that line might understate the overall impressiveness of Marquette's season, with its SOR landing at No. 39.
Big TenLocks Ohio State Buckeyes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan State Spartans, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Maryland Terrapins, Michigan Wolverines Projected out Penn State Lady Lions Case to get in: Maryland and Michigan had incredibly impressive showings in the Big Ten tournament, while Penn State managed to get one additional win before bowing out to Iowa in the quarterfinals. Penn State is currently in the "First Four Out" group in Bracketology, but its season is being undersold due to a six-game losing streak during February. Recency bias will be tough to overcome here, but overall, this team is No. 59 in SOR, one spot behind North Carolina and two behind Kansas. The Lady Lions have only a single loss to teams outside the top 50 in BPI, compared to North Carolina's three. They deserve a tournament bid.
Pac-12Locks Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Oregon State Beavers, Colorado Buffaloes, Utah Utes Projected in Arizona Wildcats Projected out Washington State Cougars, California Golden Bears, Washington Huskies Case to get in: After Arizona and Cal won their first-round matchups in the Pac-12 tournament, neither was able to knock off their quarterfinal opponents. Arizona lost a one-possession game to USC for the second time in as many weeks. All four of these teams have had brutal schedules, each in the top 20 of SOS. WSU, Cal and Arizona are each top 50 in BPI, and WSU, Arizona and Washington all boast a SOR in the 60s. Arizona has a win over Stanford and two close games to USC on the résumé. WSU beat UCLA and has the highest SOR and BPI of this group, but suffered three losses to Cal. Washington has arguably the two most impressive wins in the country -- over UCLA and Stanford -- by a bubble team and is the only team in this group that managed to beat Oregon State. Whichever of these teams miss out on a tournament bid will land at the top of the snubs list.
SECLocks South Carolina Gamecocks, LSU Tigers, Ole Miss Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Vanderbilt Commodores Projected in Auburn Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies Projected out Mississippi State Bulldogs Case to get in: Despite losing its first-round matchup against Florida, Vanderbilt should still be a lock with a top-50 SOR and ranked No. 56 in BPI. Texas A&M and Auburn turned in solid wins before falling in the quarterfinals to South Carolina and LSU, respectively. This group has a similar case to the Pac-12's bubble teams, with Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M all ranked in the 60s in SOR and each being top-50 in BPI. Auburn is probably the safest, with an impressive win against LSU on its résumé and a SOS ranked No. 57. Mississippi State is projected out despite its win against LSU due to two losses to teams outside the top 100 in BPI and the weakest SOR of the group. Texas A&M doesn't have as impressive a win but has had a more solid season overall, with its worst loss coming against Georgia, No. 61 in BPI.
OtherLocks Gonzaga Bulldogs The UT Martin Skyhawks, Chattanooga Mocs, Richmond Spiders, Presbyterian Blue Hose, Marshall Thundering Herd, Green Bay Phoenix, Portland Pilots and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits have secured their bids, and the Princeton Tigers and UNLV Lady Rebels are considered locks from conferences expected to send one team to the NCAA tournament. Additional expected one-bids Maine Black Bears, Rice Owls, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, Eastern Washington Eagles, Hawaii Rainbow Wahine, Stony Brook Seawolves, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Fairfield Stags, Toledo Rockets, Norfolk State Spartans, Drake Bulldogs, Sacred Heart Pioneers, Holy Cross Crusaders, Lamar Cardinals, Jackson State Lady Tigers, Grand Canyon Lopes Work to do Ball State Cardinals, Columbia Lions, Belmont Bruins, California Baptist Lancers Projected out Cleveland State Vikings, Saint Joseph's Hawks Case to get in: All four teams in the "Work to do" category still have a shot to win their conference tournament and earn a bid, Columbia and Ball State might deserve one even with a loss. If the past week had gone differently, more of these teams would be optimistic about earning a bid, but as mentioned, the results were rough for at-large bids outside the Power 5. Despite impressive SOR rankings, team strength seems to be the barrier to a bid for most of these teams. Columbia owns the highest BPI rating of the group at No. 51, but the rest fall outside the top 70. That will likely be too low for the committee to consider them for an at-large, despite each landing a top-50 SOR.
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