March 11
We are three weeks from Opening Day and at the point where team personas are beginning to form. Orlando Hernandez, Eddie Yarnall and Ramiro Mendoza all got healthy this week, John Smoltz went down, Curt Schilling felt so good he's talking about an April return and scouts in Arizona are worried that Darin Erstad never recovered from a torn hamstring and that's why he's a below-average runner right now.
The dead-arm period, breaking balls and boredom are spring training rituals that have yet to arrive, but here are four teams that may be better than you thought back on Lincoln's Birthday:
Cleveland
They walk differently this spring. Look, the players' feelings about Mike Hargrove unfortunately -- and perhaps unfairly -- ran deep, and this is a team with a different intent and focus with the help of a new staff coming in at the right time. There are some questions, such as whether Paul Shuey, Steve Karsay (yes, he is healthy) and Ricardo Rincon (whose slider is halfway back between the snapper he threw in Pittsburgh and the gentle surf he tossed last season) can close games.
They think Kenny Lofton could be back in May, and that between Jolbert Cabrera, Jacob Cruz and Dave Roberts that they can fill center field. Sandy Alomar, the team ballast, is in superior shape. Jaret Wright is under control and more mature, throwing a hard sinker and getting four changeups an inning over. There is a sense of redemption after the humiliating collapse against Boston in the playoffs, and there is a sense of urgency, knowing that at the end of the season Manny Ramirez will be gone and several key players will be that much farther down the road past 30.
Boston
These guys think they're good. Yankee players this spring talk of how hard and close their ALCS series with the Red Sox turned out to be, and when Pedro Martinez says, "We didn't play our best and we didn't get any of the breaks," he speaks for everyone.
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| 1999 SEASON STATISTICS |
| G |
W-L |
SV |
IP |
H |
ERA |
| 74 |
6-3 | 15 |
109.1 | 84 |
2.63 | |
|
Are there huge concerns? Of course. First, Tim Wakefield and Jeff Fassero in No. 3 and No. 4 spots in the rotation. They're also going to miss Derek Lowe in the front of the bullpen; they led the majors in lowest batting average against from the seventh inning on last season, and now that Lowe is the closer and restricted to the eighth and ninth innings, they're going to miss his ability to stop the bleeding in the seventh inning, a huge factor to winning in the 8-6 American League world.
That said, this has been a very encouraging spring. Here are five reasons why:
1. Ramon Martinez looks very good, a solid No. 2 starter behind Pedro.
2. Add Carl Everett into the cleanup spot -- remember that Mike Hampton and other Houston players at the end of the season considered him their MVP -- and watch how his quiet ferocity fits with Nomar Garciaparra and friends. Last season, Boston's center fielders had a combined on base + slugging percentage of .587, while Everett was at .969, better than Junior Griffey's .960.
3. Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek appear to have turned the corner to breakout status in their second full seasons, to where they could hit 60 home runs between them. Those two also continue the development of their intense professionalism.
4. Waterbug Donnie Sadler, who is one of the fastest players in the game and a star-level defender at second, short and center, is starting to get the hang of hitting the ball more on the ground and getting on base.
5. By June, rookie RHP Sun Woo Kim will be somewhere on that staff, in long relief or starting. "We knew we were happy to be in the playoffs two years ago," says Pedro. "Last year, we came back against Cleveland and we thought we could have and should have beaten the Yankees. Now we're better and we think we should perform better than 94 wins and the second round of the playoffs. Everyone here believes we should get to the World Series."
San Francisco
The conventional wisdom is that the NL West is up for grabs between Arizona and Los Angeles. But PacBell Park is going to be a new experience, one that should be of huge benefit to the Giants. Remember how they used to play in front of friends, enemies and family in Candlestick? Now they're going to be effectively sold out every night, and that should help lift what has been a tough, overachieving team the last few years.
Now, the park is a drawback, as well; GM Brian Sabean has to tell all those who come shopping catchers that he cannot take on any salary for the first year or two of the park because the Giants paid for it themselves and the debt service is staggering.
Still, if Robby Nen is healthy, this is going to be a terrific pitching staff. Master Dusty Baker is planning to use a six-man rotation. Mark Gardner has come back strong, so add him to 18-game winner Russ Ortiz, Kirk Rueter (the sixth-best career winning percentage among active starters), Shawn Estes, Livan Hernandez and prodigal Joe Nathan. If Baker sticks to the six-man rotation, he should have his starters fresh in September and preserve the young arms when they creep past the 200-inning marker.
Catcher is a serious question, but Baker is very impressed with ex-Phil Bobby Estalella, who always could hit and has been throwing very well (one scout has been getting him at an impressive 1.85 seconds to second base) and thinks that if Estalella produces, then Doug Mirabelli can be the backup. A lot depends on Barry Bonds' comeback and Nen's health, but indications are good and those are two rock-solid people to build around.
Pittsburgh
Hopefully, unfulfilled expectations won't catch up to Gene Lamont, but when there is speculation about the three-way battle between the Reds, Cardinals and Astros in the NL Central, each of those clubs point to the Pirates as having an equally legitimate shot at 90 wins and the division.
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| 1999 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GS |
W-L |
IP |
H |
SO |
ERA |
| 27 |
8-10 | 160.2 |
166 | 98 |
4.43 | |
|
Jason Kendall is back and starting three days in a row in case anyone doubted him. Francisco Cordova is back and throwing the ball as well as he ever has, which means that with Kris Benson, Jason Schmidt and Todd Ritchie, the Pirates probably have the division's best starting pitching. Chad Hermansen is relaxed in center field and looks like he could have a boffo rookie season. The time Lamont spent with third baseman Aramis Ramirez last October appears to have paid off. They have to find a right-hander to finish games in the bullpen, which is going to necessitate some sort of deal. Lefty Jeff Wallace, whose stuff is in the filthy category with Billy Wagner and John Rocker, could surprise and jump into the closer role from the left side.
They likely will have to do something about left field, because Wil Cordero and his $9 million investment isn't working; Bruce Aven, Adrian Brown and Emil Brown can handle it, though. The Pirates may rue the day they signed Cordero and handed off Al Martin, but every team has a few curious moves in the closet and this team looks a lot better than some anticipated. Acquiring that right-handed reliever right now is critical.
Around the majors
The Braves indicate they will wait and see how their starting pitching shakes down and how the Rocker situation develops before thinking about a trade to replace John Smoltz. Terry Mulholland and Bruce Chen get first calls at the 4-5 slots, with Steve Avery trying to come back by May and youngster Jason Marquis on the back burner. Atlanta has been looking at Kansas City and Jose Rosado, but it would cost them at least Chen and a young pitcher. John Schuerholz is never hesitant to make a big move, but he usually waits until he sees it being the right time to do so. ... What's hard to understand is why the Royals don't trade Johnny Damon for pitching -- to Seattle, for instance -- because they're not going to be able to afford Damon at the end of this season and they have Dee Brown coming up. ... The Mariners made a failed run at Clifford Floyd and another run at Garret Anderson, but the Angels apparently are going to do nothing (the A's made another, and likely last, run at Jim Edmonds this week, and likely won't bother again). ... For Seattle, the good news is that Jay Buhner appears healthy, his bat quick. For the Angels, a big question is Erstad's leg.
The only good news for Smoltz is that now he can go to the Final Four if Michigan State makes it, as he assures everyone they will. ... The Twins are saying the only sticking point to signing Brad Radke is the clause demanded by agent Ron Simon that says he can ask out after one year. "What's frustrating," says one Twins official, "is that from November to February, it was never suggested, then at the end, with a deadline, it is proposed and non-negotiable." Carlos Delgado has such a clause, but his contract is back-loaded so it makes little sense for him to walk after the 2000 season, unless he has a 50-homer, 150-RBI season, which in his case is certainly possible.
Johnny Oates has Rafael Palmeiro in a hitting group all spring with Ruben Mateo, Gabe Kapler and Mike Lamb. "Raffy is bilingual, bicultural and a terrific model for them," says Oates. "I really appreciate the respect," says Palmeiro. "These are highly talented players, and we need them to win again. This is great fun for me to be around them. They have a high energy level that's good for this club." Tigers coaches claimed that every one of Kapler's 18 homers last season came on breaking pitches and questioned whether or not he'd ever quicken his bat to be anything close to a 30-35 home run hitter. But the Rangers think his work ethic and intensity will overcome any hitch, and, remember, the Mariners got Buhner for Ken Phelps because there were people who said Buhner would never hit a fastball. Kapler might just be a lot like Buhner, with that prototypical right field arm.
Roger Clemens thinks a side session with Mel Stottlemyre this week rediscovered his release point, especially important to the angle of his split. At the end of the session, Clemens told Jorge Posada, "I want you to catch my 300th win." Roger gets it.
The Reds have had two very encouraging pitching developments. The first is the comeback of Osvaldo Fernandez. "He was ticking 91 with his old back-of-the-foot sink," says Gary Hughes, one of Jim Bowden's assistants. "His slider is back. He is a big guy for us." The other is Scott Winchester, who came with Danny Graves in the John Smiley trade. "He's had four outings and looked nasty," says Bowden. "There are some here who thought before he hurt his arm that he could be as good as anyone we have. Well, he's back." Bowden and Dan Duquette have been very successful grabbing medical cases and allowing them to rehab.
The Rangers say the majority of pitchers come back stronger than ever from Tommy John elbow surgery, and point to the fact that three first-round selections last June were coming off that surgery. Then you look around at Ramon Martinez and hear Curt Schilling promise that his stuff will be back to '97 form and you realize shoulder surgery can work as well. There isn't any Boston player who doesn't believe that Bret Saberhagen will be back for the final two months, pain-free and with an increased range of motion, testament to medicine and Saberhagen's character. Incidentally, that rehab thing doesn't apply only to pitchers. The Reds grabbed former slugging first base prospect Ron Wright off waivers from the Pirates, he's come back and by the middle of this year could be a major chip in a deal for pitching.
Revisiting realignment
There has been one change from the realignment plan that appeared in this column two weeks ago, but there has been so much goofiness over reports this week and the misinformation that all the issues have been clouded. The one change is that Cincinnati, not Houston, will go to the National League Southeast Division, joining Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Florida. The Astros and Cardinals will go into the Central with the Cubs and Brewers, with the Pirates in the East with the Mets, Expos and Phillies. As explained here, the American League will have two four-team divisions on each coast and a six-team division in the Midwest. Contrary to some mixups, the Tigers will be in the Central, the Blue Jays in the East.
There is a lot to be said for this structure, as uneasy as one might be with a six-team AL Central. It defines the two leagues to the Bud Selig Conference (DH, wild card) in the AL, the Bob Costas Conference (no DH, no wild card) in the NL. In the NL, divisional foes would meet 20 times a year. In the AL East and West, they meet 18 times, in the Central, 14 or 15, depending on the schedule. This assures that most teams play more than 100 games in their own time zone (hence the Houston-Cincinnati move) and assures that in September there will be no more swing teams.
A great deal of work and logic has gone into this. If there were 32 teams, it would work even better, but there aren't two more cities into which to expand without strangling clubs like Montreal, Oakland and Minnesota that may need Northern Virginia for extortion purposes. Fans like to watch their games at local times, and this is a boost for local television outlets.
News and notes
Isn't this the way trades are supposed to work? Darryl Kile looks like he's back for the Cardinals, up to 92-93 mph with his old curveball. In Colorado, they are very impressed with Manny Aybar and Jose Jimenez. Where once the Rockies were willing to talk trade on each of those young pitchers, now they're going to hold onto them, figuring that a year out of St. Louis can't hurt them. And while Vinny Castilla believes he got out of Coors "at the right time in my career," Rolando Arrojo is hitting 92 and looking outstanding for the Rockies.
The Padres say that Sterling Hitchcock's elbow was a freak thing, that he is all right, and while he may not perform that well in Arizona, he usually doesn't start using his out pitch, his split, until the end of March. Will they market him? Only for power and an arm, and some things have gone so well this spring that now they're thinking about contending. Al Martin has been terrific; when Ruben Rivera failed to finish his running one day and went into the clubhouse and hopped into the shower, Martin followed him in and made him get dressed and finish the sprints. Rivera has shown signs of starting to slow down his lower half and get the notion of hitting, Mike Darr has shown off his Walkeresque tools in right field and Matt Clement has been awesome, to the point where his improved command of that running stuff and the addition of a changeup could point him to a breakthrough season. ... The Padres are very impressed with Adam Eaton, the right-hander acquired in the Andy Ashby trade with Philly, but he won't be ready for the majors until the end of the season, at the earliest.
General managers and scouts in Arizona are wondering what's up with Travis Lee, especially after Buck Showalter pinch hit for him Thursday against the Mariners. He lost his first base job to Erubiel Durazo and there were some strained feelings from his leaving the team at the end of the season instead of joining them for the playoffs. Hmm. ... Boston's ticket sales are up 12 percent, which is tough to do in that park. ... Early indications are that the Indians and Red Sox investments in Danys Baez and Sang Lee are not going to pay immediate dividends. Baez, the $15 million man from Cubs, has not pitched much, and it has showed. Lee, the eccentric 31-year old Korean with the long, bleached red hair, is trying to learn to throw a sinker. Whoops. That was $3.2M he got. ... Rick Helling on how different this Rangers team is from its predecessors: "This has to be the first time anyone has said that the strength of the Texas Rangers is its pitching staff. But it is."
The Astros may have taken some heat for dealing Carl Everett, but many believe Adam Everett will be the Houston shortstop by midseason and will be there a long, long time. "He is a special player and person," says DeMarlo Hale, who managed Everett at Trenton and now is managing Oklahoma City for the Rangers. "He is a tremendous defensive shortstop, and his character is rare." Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Haas says, "He's going to hit a lot more than some people think. Hey, we had a chance to get what we needed. But Adam Everett is going to be a very good big league player for a long time. He's got that character Houston is used to."
Scouts in Arizona are raving about Paul Konerko's continued improvement as a hitter, and predict he'll hit .290-.300 with 100-plus RBI. But they also say he could have a long year at third base if he plays there. The White Sox are developing a talented young pitching staff, but there are catching and defensive holes that could hurt that development. But if closer Bobby Howry really does come up with an effective changeup, watch out. ... The Pads are raving about Rule 5 OF Kory DeHaan, drafted out of the Pirates chain. Pittsburgh must know something, because they tried to get DeHaan back in the Martin deal. ... And so the Jeff Juden Era ended with the Yankees with last Sunday's outing: one inning, one hit, five runs, a bases-loaded walk to the opposing pitcher, two bases-loaded hit batsmen and one wild pitch behind Jason Kendall's head.
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