Flip that page on the calendar and say a fond "so long" to April.
OK, now that you've done that, say one more thing:
IT'S NOT THAT EARLY!
|  | | James Baldwin and the White Sox may not be an April fluke. |
Sure, there may be about 20 teams out there singing that traditional May
Day ballad, "There's a Whole Lot of Baseball Left to Be Played." (Feel free
to hum along at home.) The truth is, however, it's not as early as they might
think.
It's late enough, in fact, that teams like the Rangers, Astros and
Phillies ought to be very nervous every time they peruse those standings.
And it's late enough to start thinking seriously about lining up for
playoff tickets in places like St. Louis and the south side of Chicago.
And it's late enough, to be honest, that even those unbeatable
Cleveland Indians should be a little edgy.
Why? Because April matters. It always matters.
Granted, the weather in April often is more suitable for the Iditarod
than the Summer Game. And granted, Mike Bordick probably isn't going to stay
on pace to hit 50 homers. But April matters. It always matters.
We've looked back at every April since 1982, the year after the '81
strike. And it might astonish you how much April matters.
Here's what we found:
Of 88 playoff teams since then, only 11 (or 12.5 percent) had a losing
record in April.
Only three -- the '87 Tigers (8-12), '89 Blue Jays (9-16) and '95 Reds (0-5) -- were more than three games under .500 in April.
More amazingly, only one -- the '87 Tigers (9½ back of the Brewers) -- was more than 4½ games out of a playoff spot after April.
Of the 78 first-place teams since then (not counting the '94 strike
season), 47 (60.3 percent) were in first place at the end of April -- but 70 (or
89.7 percent) were either in first or within 2½ games of first.
Of the 10 wild-card teams since 1995, four led the wild-card race after April, two
more were within 1½ games in that race and none was more than three games
out.
And of the 30 teams to make the playoffs since baseball went to the
six-division format, just three -- the '95 Reds (0-5), '96 Cardinals (12-15)
and '97 Indians (12-13) had losing Aprils.
So April matters. The facts speak for themselves. Yet it's amazing how
many people -- in and out of the game -- look at the first month as kind of a
warm-up act for the long haul.
"For me," said Indians GM John Hart, before hearing all this compelling
data, "I think the big date is Memorial Day. That's when it's time to step up
and really examine your team. By Memorial Day, if you're a pretty good team,
you should be on track. And if you're a bad team, then it's hard to make up
that ground. So if it's May 31 or June 1, then you should pay attention. But
right now? No."
Then, however, we informed Hart of all those impressive April
facts mentioned above. We also mentioned to him that his team was two games
out of first place as it headed into May.
"Here I'm thinking it's early," he said, "and now I'm scared to death."
But Hart quickly scanned the standings, checked the wild-card race and
announced: "We'd be the wild-card team. So we're in. That's it. We're playing
the Yankees in the first round."
All right, so they're not in. Not quite yet. And the White Sox, after
their 17-8 April, aren't quite in, either. Those final five months have to be
good for something.
But the point is that April is almost always a snapshot of a team's
ability. Every year, there's a team -- and sometimes two or three teams -- that
will get on a roll, overachieve and become a factor in the race. And when do
those rolls start? Early.
So while the race isn't clinched for the Cardinals or White Sox (both 17-8 in
April), you should like their chances. If you throw out the '94 strike
season, no team has come out of April with a record that good and finished
the season with a losing record since the '88 Indians (18-8 in April, 78-84
by October).
"We knew the White Sox were good going in," Hart said. "That didn't
surprise us. They're a lot like we were five or six years ago -- young, but a
very good offensive team, just starting to come together. ... And we saw
the Cardinals enough in the spring to know they were this good. They're
another team that, to me, are a very Indians-like team. They score a ton of
runs, good mix of veterans and younger players, solid starting pitching.
They're for real."
So April appears to be no mirage for either of those two -- either from
the evidence on the field or the evidence in the history books. On the other
hand, though, clubs like Texas (9-15, 4½ out), Houston (9-14, 7 out) and
Philadelphia (7-17, 11 out) will have to look long and hard for inspiration
in either place.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only two teams in history -- the
1914 Miracle Boston Braves and the '87 Tigers -- ever got themselves 10 games out of
first place as fast as the Phillies did and eventually finish first.
And while the Astros and Rangers weren't in nearly that big of a canyon after April, no team has made the playoffs after compiling an
April record in their neighborhood since the '89 Blue Jays.
So it's easy for teams like that to say, "It's early." That's what they
have to say -- and believe. But the facts say "early" disappeared just over April's horizon -- because April matters. It always matters.
Oddities of the month
On the other hand, some crazy stuff sure happens in April. So here come
10 things that happened in April you wouldn't have figured on back in March:
That Rey Ordonez would have more errors in April (six) than he had all last
year (four).
That Mike Hampton would have as many losses in April (four) as he had all
last year.
That Scott Schoeneweis would have more wins in April (four) than the entire
Phillies starting rotation (three).
That James Baldwin, who got his fourth win on July 1 last year, would have
more wins in April (four) than the Royals' entire rotation (three).
That Jeff Nelson would have almost as many wins in April (four) as all of the Tigers put together (five).
That Mike Bordick would have more homers in April (seven) than Tony Clark,
Carlos Beltran, Richie Sexson, John Jaha, Larry Walker and Sean Casey
combined (six).
That a right-handed hitter from a Missouri team would lead the major leagues
in April homers (with 11), but it would be Jermaine Dye, not Mark McGwire.
That Mo Vaughn would steal as many bases in April (two ) as the Red Sox
(two).
That Dave Mlicki would lose almost as many games in April (five) as the
Braves (six).
And that McGwire would get hurt, Ray Lankford wouldn't hit a lick, and
the Cardinals would still hit almost as many homers in April (55) as the '86
Cardinals hit all season (58).
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | |
ALSO SEE
Stark: Week in Review
Stark: Rumblings and Grumblings
|
