We'd be the first to admit that certain products in this world need all the max-effort selling jobs they can get.
Ex-Lax comes to mind.
But there are certain other products that pretty much sell themselves.
Alex Rodriguez comes to mind.
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Triviality
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Among active players with 1,000 or more plate appearances, only four have a career batting average higher than .325. Can you name them?
(Answer at bottom.)
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Ask yourself this question: Can you think of any GM in baseball who really needs a handsome 60-page volume full of neat graphs and big numbers to be convinced that A-Rod might be of slightly greater value to his club than, say, Arquimedez Pozo?
We all know the answer to that one. But A-Rod's turbo-driven agent -- the emperor of overhype, Scott Boras -- has foisted that volume upon those GMs, anyway, whether they need it or not.
This opus is catchily entitled: "Alex Rodriguez -- Historical Performance." So we were stunned to learn it did not include a forward by Doris Kearns Goodwin.
It's got graphs. It's got charts. It's got a blue satin cover.
It's got big color photos. It's got more numbers than the white pages.
It's slick. It's massively researched. It's probably being made into a major motion picture as we speak.
But a bunch of baseball people we've spoken with this week had one common reaction: Why?
"This is typical Scott," said one veteran baseball man. "He's so immersed in making A-Rod such a great and historical figure, he forgets he's talking about a player no one needs to be convinced about.
"I mean, he's A-Rod. He's arguably the best player in the game. And he comes with virtually no risks. There are no questions about his health, his character, his defense or his offense. No one needs a 60-page book to understand all that."
Exactly. There has never, ever been a free agent like Alex Rodriguez -- 25 years old, great at everything he does, handsome, articulate, a model citizen. He's your basic prototype candidate for billboards, magazine covers and Wheaties boxes wherever he lands.
We've often said and written that Alex Rodriguez deserves whatever absurd contract his market bears. We still believe that.
But for Boras -- a man with whom we've admittedly had our differences -- that can never be enough. Hence, we have a book. We have exaggerated attempts to prove A-Rod is far more than just the most attractive player on the market. We have Boras making statements like this:
"What we want to do is demonstrate that he may be the best 24-year-old major leaguer in history."
OK, let's examine that statement. What's wrong with it? Well, start with this:
Alex Rodriguez is not 24 years old. He's 25.
He's been 25 for more than three months. He was closer to age 25 than to age 24 every single day of the 2000 season. He was 24 years, 8 months and 7 days old on opening day. He turned 25 on July 27, which is not to be confused with Christmas Eve. So to sum up, he's 25.
But Boras says Rodriguez was considered to be 24 for the purposes of this study simply because he hadn't turned 25 by July 1. Which is technically true. Except that he did turn 25 three and a half weeks later.
So Boras' attempt to describe him as a 24-year-old player actually offended several people we spoke with.
"I love baseball history," said one normally mild-mannered baseball man. "But he's 25 -- not 24. He's using an artificial date to make his case look better. And he doesn't have to. You just lose credibility with that."
But we didn't merely want to make this judgment ourselves. So we asked one of America's most respected baseball historians and statistical analysts, Pete Palmer, to examine this idea of whether A-Rod could be considered "the best 24-year-old major leaguer in history."
And the first thing Palmer did in assessing Rodriguez's place in history was to change his age to 25 -- because his average age during this season was greater than 24½. So we consider that case officially closed.
All right, now that we've got the calendar portion of our program out of the way, where did A-Rod rank among those 25-year-olds?
Well, not No. 1.
In great company. But not No. 1.
Palmer, the esteemed co-editor of "Total Baseball," assigned Total Baseball's Total Player Ranking to all the players in history at age 25. And A-Rod ranked fifth -- which ain't exactly Larvell Blanks territory. But it's not first.
The top 10 looked this way:
Rogers Hornsby (35.2 in seven seasons)
Ty Cobb (29.9 in seven seasons)
Tris Speaker (28.3 in seven seasons)
Mickey Mantle (26.1 in six seasons)
Alex Rodriguez (25.3 in seven seasons)
Eddie Collins (24.3 in seven seasons)
Hank Aaron (24.2 in six seasons)
Ted Williams (24.0 in four seasons)
Cesar Cedeno (23.2 in seven seasons)
Mel Ott (23.2 in nine seasons)
This is, obviously, a great group to hang around with. Junior Griffey, who used to be a top-10er, was bumped to 11th by A-Rod. Eight of the other nine players on that list are Hall of Famers. The ninth grew up to be Cesar Cedeno. But we'll ignore that for a moment.
Clearly, by this or any standard, A-Rod is among the best players ever at his age.
But the best?
His rating was nearly 10 points -- and more than 28 percent -- lower than Rogers Hornsby's rating. And while we would never claim these ratings are anything but arbitrary, that's a lot of points and a hefty percentage.
So there's no need to try to make the case that Rodriguez is the best, when "one of the best" would suffice. It wouldn't require a 60-page book, but it would suffice.
Boras didn't stop there, though. Boras also has been quoted as saying that A-Rod will go on to "have the most home runs, the most RBIs and the most runs scored of anyone ever in baseball -- if he produces at the same level for the next 15 years."
Based on that dubious assumption, his book projects Rodriguez will finish his career with 778 home runs if he plays to age 40.
We ran that forecast past another one of our favorite baseball historians and statisticians, the Elias Sports Bureau's Steve Hirdt. Not surprisingly, Hirdt wouldn't touch it.
"We have enough statistics in baseball just with regard to what players have already done," Hirdt said. "We don't need to now start a speculative statistic based on what they might do or what we hope they will do. That's just fuzzy math."
And for all the evidence of the dangers of those speculative statistics, we need to go back only a few paragraphs -- to this name:
Cesar Cedeno.
Using that Total Player Rating, inconclusive as it may be, Cedeno was a better player at A-Rod's age than Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig and many, many other luminaries. Think of the projections you could have made on him back then. But stuff happens.
And it can happen to A-Rod.
Trying to predict what anyone will do over the next 15 years is a job for the American Psychics Association, not a baseball agent. And it is downright ridiculous to assume that any player -- even a player as young and multi-talented as this one -- will be exactly the same player from age 26 through 40 that he was from 20 to 25.
But A-Rod has indeed set himself up for a run at history and a run at Cooperstown. That we'll gladly concede. So just for fun, we asked Palmer to run his own impartial projection model. Here's how his computer foresaw Rodriguez's next 15 seasons:
| YEAR |
AVG |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
SLG |
OBP |
| 2001 |
.299 |
162 |
626 |
137 |
187 |
35 |
2 |
45 |
136 |
87 |
128 |
23 |
.578 |
.386 |
| 2002 |
.294 |
162 |
621 |
136 |
183 |
34 |
2 |
45 |
135 |
89 |
127 |
21 |
.571 |
.383 |
| 2003 |
.291 |
162 |
621 |
134 |
181 |
34 |
2 |
44 |
133 |
89 |
125 |
20 |
.564 |
.381 |
| 2004 |
.287 |
162 |
622 |
132 |
178 |
33 |
2 |
43 |
131 |
87 |
123 |
20 |
.555 |
.375 |
| 2005 |
.283 |
162 |
622 |
130 |
176 |
33 |
2 |
43 |
129 |
86 |
121 |
20 |
.548 |
.371 |
| 2006 |
.279 |
161 |
617 |
128 |
172 |
32 |
2 |
42 |
127 |
84 |
119 |
19 |
.540 |
.367 |
| 2007 |
.276 |
157 |
604 |
124 |
167 |
31 |
2 |
41 |
123 |
81 |
115 |
19 |
.534 |
.363 |
| 2008 |
.273 |
152 |
585 |
119 |
160 |
30 |
2 |
39 |
118 |
78 |
110 |
18 |
.527 |
.360 |
| 2009 |
.271 |
146 |
562 |
113 |
152 |
28 |
2 |
37 |
112 |
74 |
105 |
17 |
.523 |
.357 |
| 2010 |
.268 |
139 |
535 |
107 |
143 |
27 |
2 |
35 |
106 |
70 |
99 |
16 |
.518 |
.354 |
| 2011 |
.265 |
131 |
504 |
100 |
134 |
25 |
2 |
33 |
99 |
65 |
92 |
15 |
.513 |
.351 |
| 2012 |
.263 |
122 |
471 |
93 |
124 |
23 |
2 |
30 |
92 |
60 |
85 |
14 |
.510 |
.349 |
| 2013 |
.261 |
113 |
435 |
85 |
114 |
21 |
2 |
28 |
84 |
55 |
78 |
13 |
.506 |
.346 |
| 2014 |
.260 |
103 |
396 |
77 |
103 |
19 |
2 |
25 |
76 |
50 |
71 |
12 |
.502 |
.344 |
| 2015 |
.258 |
92 |
354 |
68 |
91 |
17 |
2 |
22 |
68 |
44 |
63 |
11 |
.499 |
.342 |
| Totals |
.286 |
2916 |
11301 |
2310 |
3231 |
616 |
43 |
741 |
2264 |
1409 |
2177 |
391 |
.543 |
.367 |
By those projections, A-Rod won't break Aaron's record, as Boras has been widely predicting. But he will come close. And he will be a first-ballot lock Hall of Famer.
All that could easily happen. But even this projection assumes he's going to miss only five games over the next seven seasons. Hey, don't bet your Kingdome implosion video on that.
So when we get back to the question of how seriously to interpret this intriguing data, even Palmer admits it's more entertaining than meaningful.
"Long-range projections are pretty chancy," Palmer said. "I did one for Dwight Gooden once which showed him winning 300 games."
Yeah, well, he's only going to miss by 100 or so.
But what the heck. He was just doing that projection for its sheer entertainment value, so what did it matter?
Boras' A-Rod projection, on the other hand, is meant to entice some team to check the concession booths to see if someone left a quarter-billion dollars lying around. So this one matters plenty.
And if it's wrong -- after Boras has based the most grandiose contract demand in history on it -- it will really matter.
So there's a moral to this story. We hope you've taken note.
Leave the books to the authors. Leave the projections to the projectionists. Leave the hype jobs to the telemarketers who call during dinner.
Alex Rodriguez doesn't need them. Some things speak for themselves. He's one of them.
A little more A-Rod
Teams are trying to convince themselves this is the kind of player who pays for himself - because magnetic stars of this magnitude have done so in the past. But at $25 million a year, what would have to happen for Alex Rodriguez to pay for himself?
"Take the Mets," said one baseball man. "They drew 3 million without him. What would they have to draw WITH him?"
Good question. If they took in $20 from the average fan, they would have to draw 4.25 million a year -- for the life of the contract -- in order for a $25-million man to pay for himself. And that's nearly impossible.
So what are their options? Double ticket prices? Demand more for their TV-radio packages? Figure out a way to market the guy, over and above Boras' proposed Alex Rodriguez Concession Stand concept?
It's all of the above. But it's a major challenge -- for any franchise. Which is one more reason the market for even a player as charismatic as A-Rod will be so limited.
Heard around the league
Sammy Sosa's contract talks with the Cubs have gone nowhere. Which means you can look for those Sosa trade rumors to heat up any time now. But our bet is that Sosa is more likely to get traded in July than December.
Despite rampant speculation that he was gone, Paul O'Neill wound up back with the Yankees for one more season (one year, $6.5 million). So O'Neill, 37, was able to convince the Yankees with his play in the World Series that it was his hip injury -- not his age -- that caused him to have such a miserable September (.222, with four extra-base hits). But now he has to convince the rest of the world.
"He hit .283 and drove in 100 runs," said O'Neill's agent, Joe Bick. "A lot of guys who did that are going to get $2- and 3-million raises If you look at Paul's numbers at the end of August, before he got hurt, he was heading for .310 to .315, about 23 homers and 115 RBIs -- which is what he's done every year for the last five years.
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List of the week
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If it seems as if closers never enter a game with runners on base anymore, it isn't your imagination. Among pitchers who spent the entire season as their team's primary closer, only four inherited 25 baserunners or more over the entire season. And two inherited just FIVE or fewer -- Troy Percival (three in 54 appearances) and Antonio Alfonseca (five in 68 appearances).
Here are the leaders in most inherited runners, divided into three fascinating categories:
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CLOSERS
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Pitcher
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Inherited
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Apps
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Scored
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Dave Veres (StL)
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45
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71
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15
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Todd Jones (Det.)
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28
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67
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7
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Armando Benitez (NYM)
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26
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76
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13
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Kazuhiro Sasaki (Sea.)
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25
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63
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5
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Mariano Rivera (NYY)
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24
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66
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10
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OVERALL
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Pitcher
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Inherited
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Apps
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Scored
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Mike Venafro (Tex)
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75
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77
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20
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Francisco Cordero (Tex)
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72
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56
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24
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Bob Wells (Minn.)
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71
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76
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20
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Kelly Wunsch (CWS)
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70
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83
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17
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C.J. Nitkowski (Det.)
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67
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67
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23
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MORE RUNNERS INHERITED THAN APPS.
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Pitcher
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Inherited
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Apps
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Scored
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Francisco Cordero (Tex)
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72
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56
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24
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Jeff Zimmerman (Tex)
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66
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65
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17
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Jamie Brewington (Cle.)
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30
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26
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11
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Jim Poole (Det.)
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25
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23
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15
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Cam Cairncross (Cle.)
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22
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15
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7
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"He basically missed two weeks because of his hip. And when he came back, he couldn't use his legs to hit, so his numbers were down for a couple of weeks. We're talking about two bad weeks. What's the big deal?"
O'Neill is such a loyal guy, he waited until the last day of the filing period to file for free agency. And he told the Yankees he wouldn't even negotiate more than a one-year contract, because he couldn't promise he would want to play beyond that.
The Cy Young votes will be announced next week. And it will be fascinating to see if Randy Johnson wins in the NL. There were indications some voters had jumped off his bandwagon after Johnson gave up the ERA lead on the final day of the season.
But the Cy Young has different criteria than the MVP award. It's about season-long dominance, not value to a team that makes the playoffs. So let's remember that the Unit finished in the top three in the league in ERA (second), wins (third), strikeouts (first), innings pitched (third), complete games (first), winning percentage (first) and shutouts (first).
The Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that the last NL pitcher to do that was Greg Maddux, in 1995. Yeah, he won the Cy Young -- unanimously.
It did not cost Junior Griffey any bonus money when his Gold Glove streak was snapped at 10. His new Reds contract had no Gold Glove incentive built in. But here are the guys who did get bonuses by winning their Gold Gloves:
$100,000 -- Robbie Alomar.
$50,000 -- J.T. Snow, Steve Finley, Mike Matheny, John Olerud, Omar Vizquel, Travis Fryman, Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad, Ivan Rodriguez and Kenny Rogers.
$25,000 -- Jim Edmonds (under his old Anaheim deal), Neifi Perez.
Five winners had no Gold Glove incentives: Bernie Williams, Pokey Reese, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones and Maddux.
John Wetteland filed for free agency. But no one knows if he's retiring, continuing to pitch or even planning to take part of next season off and come back later. Wetteland is starting a rehab program for his back this winter and will decide at some point down the road whether his future includes baseball. And even if it does, it may not include spring training. One friend of Wetteland says it wouldn't surprise him if "John decides to work out for some teams next May to come back for the second half." Stay tuned.
Even as A-Rod makes plans to evacuate, the Mariners have been as aggressive as any team in baseball this winter. Their first choice at shortstop is thought to be Alex Gonzalez. But sources say they've talked about pursuing Mike Bordick even if A-Rod miraculously re-signs. They then would move Bordick to second, a position he played some in Oakland in his rookie year.
In a potentially great story, one of the most sought-after relievers on the market this winter may be Mark Wohlers, who finally appears to have conquered his control nightmare. But all signs point toward Wohlers returning to Cincinnati, where he was clearly comfortable with his surroundings.
Speaking of the Reds, now that they've dealt away one arbitration-eligible pitcher, their next move could be dealing reliever Scott Sullivan to the Braves for pitching prospects.
Remember all the uproar in September about how a three-way tie among the A's, Mariners and Indians for the final two playoff spots would have automatically elevated the wild-card team into the playoffs -- while the two AL West co-champs would have had to play off for the final spot?
General managers voted this week, for the second straight year, to recommend that rule be changed. Their suggestion: the two first-place teams play off, then the loser plays the third team for the wild-card spot.
Gene Orza, the union's associate general counsel, has been a defender of the old system. But he said he is "perfectly willing to talk about this. If they want to make this proposal, I'm happy to discuss it. I'm not adverse to it. I just want to make sure everybody has thought about (the pros and cons of) it first."
The big downside: A logistical nightmare that would delay the start of the playoffs. The big upside: justice (or at least no automatic reward for a team that finishes second over a team that finishes tied for first).
So whatever happens, you can bet they'll be having a longgggg talk.
Useless information dept.
Since father-son combinations are a hot topic this week, thanks to the Bush family, we couldn't help but note that new Reds manager Bob Boone will become just the sixth man in history to manage his own son (Aaron). The others, courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau's Ken Hirdt:
Felipe and Moises Alou (1992-96 Expos)
Hal and Brian McRae (1991-94 Royals)
Cal Ripken Sr. and two sons, Cal Jr. and Billy (1985 Orioles managing Cal only, 1987-88 Orioles managing both)
Yogi and Dale Berra (1985 Yankees -- for 16 games)
Connie and Earle Mack (1910-11, 1914 Athletics)
Just five pitchers in the big leagues held both lefthanded hitters and righthanded hitters to batting averages below .200 this season (minimum: 200 at-bats). Three were closers: Robb Nen, Armando Benitez and Kazuhiro Sasaki. So the only two starters who did it were that Pedro guy and (surprise) Barry Zito. Their numbers:
PITCHER LHs RHs
Benitez .133 .161
Martinez .150 .184
Nen .193 .128
Sasaki .198 .170
Zito .194 .195
You probably didn't notice this, but veteran baseball scribe Jack Lang did: For we've determined to be the first time in 93 years, the batting champs in each league finished with the same batting average -- .372 (by Nomar Garciaparra and Todd Helton). That's happened in only two other seasons in history: 1907 (when two obscure hitters named Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner finished at .350) and 1903 (when Nap Lajoie and Wagner wound up at .353).
Roberto Alomar and Omar Vizquel have become just the sixth double-play combination ever to win Gold Gloves in back-to-back seasons -- and the first since Lou Whitaker and Alan Trammell (1983-84 Tigers).
The others: Joe Morgan-Dave Concepcion (1975-76-77 Reds), Bobby Grich-Mark Belanger (1973-74-75-76 Orioles), Bill Mazeroski-Gene Alley (1966-67 Pirates) and Nellie Fox-Luis Aparicio (1959-60 White Sox).
Besides that group, only two other sets of double-play partners ever won Gold Gloves in the same year: Davey Johnson and Belanger (twice, in 1969 and '71) and Bobby Knoop-Jim Fregosi (1967 Angels).
any year. That's the Reds. Pokey Reese won at second this year. Barry Larkin has won three at short (1994-95-96).
In other Gold Glove news, Kenny Rogers and Pudge Rodriguez were only the fourth pitcher-catcher tandem to win from the same club in the same year. The others: Jim Kaat-Earl Battey (1962 Twins), Rick Reuschel-Tony Pena (1985 Pirates), Brett Saberhagen-Bob Boone (1989 Royals).
OK, before we get any uproar from our Pittsburgh precincts, this asterisk: Reuschel and Pirates catcher Mike LaValliere both won in 1987, the year Reuschel was traded from the Pirates to the Giants in midseason.
Think we're done with this Gold Glove tangent? Not quite yet. Last year, Rafael Palmeiro achieved something that ought to be impossible: He won a Gold Glove and a Designated Hitter Award in the same season. So we're creating the Palmeiro Trophy, awarded to the Gold Glove winner who spent the most time DH-ing that season.
And this year's prestigious winner is . . . (cue the percussion section) . . . Darin Erstad, who was the Angels' starting DH in 20 games and got 90 designated-hitter at-bats. Our heartiest congratulations. And the trophy is in the mail.
Everybody seems to be picking on Junior Griffey these days. So Kazuhiro Sasaki's selection as rookie of the year inspired us to revive one of our favorite notes -- a note that reminds us how young Griffey still is. (He won't turn 31 until later this month). Griffey never won a rookie-of-the-year award himself. But Sasaki, 32, is the 14th winner of that award since Griffey's rookie season who was older than Griffey at the time he won it.
The others: Gregg Olson ('89 AL), Jerome Walton ('89 NL), Sandy Alomar Sr. ('90 AL), David Justice ('90 NL), Chuck Knoblauch ('91 AL), Jeff Bagwell ('91 NL), Pat Listach ('92 AL), Eric Karros ('92 NL), Tim Salmon ('93 AL), Mike Piazza ('93 NL), Bob Hamelin ('94 AL), Marty Cordova ('95 AL), Hideo Nomo ('95 NL).
The amazing Mike Morgan goes on and on. When he re-signed with the Diamondbacks this week, it meant he would be going to spring training with the same team two years in a row for the first time since 1995 (Cubs). But then, like Nolan Ryan, you could make a case that Morgan isn't getting older. He's getting better.
Since he went 4-4 this year, his winning percentage in his 40s is at its all-time high: .500. He went 2-13 in his teens (.133), 40-66 in his 20s (.377) and 92-101 in his 30s (.477). At this rate, he might win a Cy Young in his 60s.
Trivia answer: Tony Gwynn (.338), Todd Helton (.334), Nomar Garciaparra (.333) and Mike Piazza (.328).
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | |
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