DALLAS -- Back in the good old days, the winter meetings used to be a time for big deals, big cigars and big bar bills. Now, the winter meetings are mostly one giant agent-fest, dominated by free agents, dollar signs and breakdowns of deferred payments.
But not everybody can spend 100 million bucks on the international icon of their choice. So while the A-Rods and Mike Hamptons of the baseball earth will still dominate the conversation over the next few days in Dallas, plenty of trade rumors will be bouncing around the atriums.
So we now present your handy-dandy list of players who might actually be involved in an old-fashioned baseball trade one of these days:
The bats
Johnny Damon: The Mets have already positioned themselves to make a run at a guy who, amazingly, got 98 hits in two months (July and August) this year. The Royals want relief pitching and prospects. Grant Roberts, the left-handed Bobby Jones, Rick White and a cast of thousands have been bandied about. The Mariners, Devil Rays, Orioles and Giants are also interested. But whoever gets Damon then has to try to sign him beyond next season.
Brian Jordan: The Braves have been openly shopping Jordan to clear payroll space for either Hampton or A-Rod. But Jordan needed offseason surgery on both shoulders and has $26 million coming over the next three years. So there's barely been a decent rumor about him, although the Giants are known at least to have talked about him.
Ben Grieve: You don't normally find many 24-year-old former rookies of the year on the market, especially when they're coming off a 27-homer, 104-RBI season. But the A's are loaded with young bats. They're not thrilled with Grieve's outfield leatherwork. And they have a chance to come up with a young starting pitcher for him. Rumors about Tony Armas Jr. (Montreal) and another former rookie of the year, Scott Williamson (Cincinnati) continue to float.
Matt Lawton: Kind of a poor man's Johnny Damon, Lawton has been rumored to be heading to Detroit (for Tony Clark) or Seattle (for young pitching). Toronto also is interested.
Warren Morris: In his brief stint managing in the Arizona Fall League, new Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon fell in love with former Cardinals prospect Jack Wilson, picked up in the Jason Christiansen deal. Wilson can play second or short. So Pittsburgh will try to move either Morris or Pat Meares.
Other bats: Troy O'Leary, Phil Nevin, Jeromy Burnitz, Tony Clark, Roger Cedeno, Vinny Castilla, Gabe Kapler, Ray Lankford, Dan Wilson, Milton Bradley, Travis Lee and (only if the planets align properly) Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Tim Salmon, Paul Konerko, Russ Branyan, Doug Glanville, Raul Mondesi and Jose Cruz Jr.
The arms
Matt Clement: The Padres aren't actively shopping Clement, but they'll listen, if anyone has a young corner outfielder with power or a young shortstop to deal. They've talked to Toronto about Felipe Lopez, and to the Yankees about Alfonso Soriano. They'll also think about moving Woody Williams in a lesser deal for the same commodities.
Pedro Astacio: If the Rockies sign Hampton, they'll put Astacio on the market. And the line could be larger than Pikes Peak. You'll find the Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox at the front.
Dustin Hermanson: Great arm but erratic. And his price tag is getting just hefty enough that Montreal will move him. The Mets have been most heavily rumored, but they backed off when the Expos asked for Jay Payton. So, Montreal could turn around and move Armas to Oakland instead.
Jose Lima: Lima Time in Houston is just about history. After watching him give up 48 homers and a mind-boggling 108 extra-base hits, the Astros have figured out that Lima and Enron Field aren't exactly the perfect couple. The Mets are one team that asked about him. But there haven't been many others.
Jamie Moyer: Moyer's 6.51 second-half ERA apparently frightened the Mariners just enough that they'll look around to determine what the market is for 38-year-old left-handers. Stay tuned for further developments.
Other arms: Troy Percival, Roberto Hernandez, Donne Wall, Roy Halladay, Chris Holt, Scott Sullivan, and maybe even David Wells in a blockbuster.
The Rule 5 draft of unprotected minor leaguers comes along Monday. And with nearly 1,200 players now protected on 40-man rosters and nearly 200 more orbiting in free-agent space, it's almost impossible to find any George Bells.
Among the more well-known retreads available for a mere $50,000: Olympian Pat Borders, former Mets wunderkind Bill Pulsipher and well-traveled left-hander Paul Spolijaric (all of Tampa Bay); one-time Mariners prodigy Ken Cloude (Seattle); veteran first baseman Joe Vitiello (San Diego); pitcher Felipe Lira (Montreal); 33-year-old utility man Jeff Branson (Los Angeles), and 38-year-old left-hander Joe Strong (Florida).
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List of the Week
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Here are the pitchers who induced the most ground balls this past season:
1. Greg Maddux, 452
2. Jon Lieber, 390
3. Livan Hernandez, 372
4. Mike Hampton, 362
4. Tom Glavine, 362
6. Kenny Rogers, 359
7. Brad Radke, 357
8. Kevin Brown, 350
9. Chris Holt, 349
10. Andy Pettitte, 341
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But the Rule 5 draft still serves as a source for useful role players, specialty relievers and young talents who might be worth stashing away for a season (as the Angels did this year with 22-year-old right-hander Derrick Turnbow, Rule 5-ed away from the Phillies last December).
So here are 10 players whose names might show up on that draft list Monday, according to a survey of scouts and front-office men:
Jay Tessmer: 28-year-old Yankees sidearmer who eats up right-handed hitters.
Ron Mahay: Nomadic 29-year-old left-handed reliever, just signed by San Diego to a minor-league deal.
Oswaldo Mairena: Left-handed situation reliever, age 25. Pitched two games for the Cubs. Big minor-league strikeout numbers.
Calvin Pickering: Once thought of in Baltimore as The Future. Now thought of as The Scale Buster. Hit 31 homers in the Eastern League in '98 -- 23 in two years since.
Julio Santana: Journeyman right-hander, still only 26. Hasn't won any Grammies, but has won a tour of five organizations in four years. Signed Triple-A deal with San Francisco this fall.
Brett Jodie: Intriguing 24-year-old Yankees prospect with live arm. Went 13-5, 2.64 at Norwich and Columbus this year.
Chris Enochs: One-time No. 1 pick for Oakland. Hasn't gotten out of A ball. Hasn't thrown strikes.
R.A. Dickey: Texas made him its top pick in '96, then discovered he was born without an ulnar collateral ligament. Has had three straight healthy, but inconsistent, minor-league seasons.
John Roskos: No-position bat man. Hits wherever he goes -- except the big-leagues. Went 1 for 27 with San Diego this year. Now 4 for 47 lifetime in the majors.
Roberto Vaz: Athletic line-drive machine who hasn't developed enough power to elevate himself into Oakland's prospect elite.
Miscellaneous Rumblings
Carl Everett made a surprise appearance at the meetings to visit agent Larry Reynolds. Everett eventually met with Red Sox manager Jimy Williams for the first time since their celebrated rift in September. There was no immediate word on how much progress was made in repairing that damage, but there now are rumblings Boston could revive talk of trading Everett if it signs Ramirez.
The Astros have talked to several teams about Roger Cedeno -- most notably the Tigers and Mets.
The Pirates are still said to be close to a two-year, $6-million deal with Terry Mulholland. Sources said only minor details remain at this point.
One big-name free agent with next to no interest is Jose Canseco. Canseco's agent, Jeff Borris, has been telling teams Canseco would take a deal much like the one he accepted in Toronto in 1998, with a very low base and incentives based on playing time. So far, no bites on that hook.
The Reds have been quietly patting themselves on the back about getting four prospects for Denny Neagle, whom the Yankees didn't even re-sign. Now they're talking about dealing Drew Henson back to the Yankees for a couple of more prospects, because they've come to believe only the Yankees can talk him out of playing football.
Nine months ago, the Tigers were offering Juan Gonzalez a reported $140 million. And it was expected that even if they didn't bring Gonzalez back, they'd have major bucks to spend this winter. Now, owner Mike Illitch apparently has changed his mind, and the Tigers have made no runs at any big-name free agents. They did offer Gonzalez arbitration and would take him back for a year if he accepted -- but they don't expect him to.
Sources said the Mets are mulling an offer to David Cone that would be only slightly larger than the $500,000 or so the Yankees and Cone had talked about. The Mets might offer a base of $1 million to $1.5 million, with the usual options based on Cone's ability to pitch.
The Yankees, meanwhile, continue to insist they'll give Randy Keisler or Adrian (El Duquecito) Hernandez a crack at the fifth starter's job. They would also like to wait to assess Ramiro Mendoza's health this spring. But it would hardly be a shock if they made a deal for a veteran starter in spring training. Meanwhile, major-league sources say the Yankees are now out of the free-agent market, as they turn their attention to long-term mega-deals with Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.
Oakland has interest in left-hander Mark Guthrie, who has been around so long, he was once a teammate of GM Billy Beane. Guthrie has had interest in trying to become a starter again, and the A's might indulge him.
Finally, we've reached the age of the $40-million starting rotation. Depending upon how you calculate salaries and which free agents wind up where, the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves all could pay $40 million plus just to their starting pitchers next season. There were eight teams that didn't pay that much for their entire roster this year.
Triviality
Only six pitchers have won 15 games or more in each of the last three seasons. Four are right-handers. Two are left-handers. Can you name them? (Answer at bottom.)
Useless information dept.
How will Denny Neagle survive in the semi-weightless confines of Coors Field? Well, he'll earn those 51.5 million bucks. Put it that way.
Neagle was one of only four pitchers in the big leagues to give up more than 300 fly balls this past season. (Rick Helling, Robert Person and El Duque Hernandez were the others.) And no pitcher allowed more fly balls than Neagle, who gave up 346 of them.
Pedro Astacio gave up almost half as many fly balls (175), had the best ground-ball/fly-ball ratio on the Rockies' staff and still served up 32 homers. Phew. Coors. It's not a home field. It's an adventure.
Only three active hitters who have made 1,000 or more plate appearances have a career batting average over .310, a career on-base percentage over .400 and a career slugging percentage over .550. They are Manny Ramirez (.313-.407-.592), Frank Thomas (.321-.440-.579) and a guy who will never complain about life in Colorado, Todd Helton (.334-.411-.601).
If you pare down those qualifications to just a .310 average and a .400 on-base percentage, you get those three, plus three other batsmiths who might surprise you -- Edgar Martinez (.320-.426), Jason Kendall (.314-.402) and Bobby Abreu (.313-.413).
The six players with career batting averages over .320 and slugging percentages over .550: Ramirez, Thomas, Helton, Nomar Garciaparra (.333-.573), Mike Piazza (.328-.580) and Vladimir Guerrero (.322-.592).
While we're on the subject of Coors, we spent many hours this summer blabbing about how the latest hitters' paradise, Enron Field, compared to Coors. But now that the results from Enron's first full season are in, the new Stats Inc. 2001 Major League Handbook has determined that Enron was an easier park only to hit doubles and triples in than Coors. Every other category went to the defending champ.
Meanwhile, Detroit's Comerica Park took a lot of heat for being the hitters' new worst nightmare -- but it wasn't. Turns out that Seattle's Safeco Field was a worse place to hit than Detroit in all these categories: batting average, runs, hits, doubles, triples, left-handed hitters' batting average and right-handed hitters' batting average. Comerica was a tougher place to work on your home-run trot, but that was about it.
Stats Inc. uses a stat called range factor (total chances per nine innings) to rank fielders by how much ground they cover. It isn't perfect. But it might surprise you to see some of the players who were computed to have essentially the same range.
At second base:
Pokey Reese and Warren Morris (5.44 apiece).
Roberto Alomar (5.02) and Mark McLemore (5.01).
Edgardo Alfonzo (4.92) and Mark Grudzielanek (.4.90).
At shortstop:
Miguel Tejada and Kevin Stocker (4.72 apiece).
Rafael Furcal (4.69) and Rich Aurilia (4.68).
Omar Vizquel (4.37) and Kurt Abbott (4.39).
At third base:
Scott Rolen (2.78) and Aaron Boone (2.77).
Matt Williams (2.69) and Willie Greene (2.68).
Bill Mueller (2.67) and Chipper Jones (2.66)
In center field:
Andruw Jones and Junior Griffey (2.82 apiece).
Tom Goodwin and Brady Anderson (2.77 apiece).
Kenny Lofton and Doug Glanville (2.75 apiece).
In left field:
Shannon Stewart and Ron Gant (2.33 apiece).
Greg Vaughn and B.J. Surhoff (2.20 apiece).
Gary Sheffield (1.65) and Wil Cordero (1.64).
In right field:
Ellis Burks and Paul O'Neill (2.33 apiece).
Raul Mondesi and Dante Bichette (2.25 apiece).
Jermaine Dye and Trot Nixon (2.06 apiece).
Now here's a best-and-worst range-factor list for the same positions (minimum -- 100 games):
Second base: Best -- Randy Velarde (5.60). Worst -- Jay Bell (4.60).
Shortstop: Best -- Felix Martinez (5.67). Worst -- Derek Jeter (4.12).
Third base: Best -- Troy Glaus (3.02). Worst -- Dean Palmer (2.32).
Center field: Best -- Richard Hidalgo (3.02). Worst -- Carl Everett (2.44).
Left field: Best -- Darrin Erstad (2.63). Worst -- Wil Cordero (1.64).
Right field: Best -- Dave Martinez (2.45). Worst -- Manny Ramirez (1.59).
Before we get off the subject of odd couples, how about four sets of catchers who threw out essentially the same percentage of base-stealers:
Charles Johnson and Kelly Stinnett (27 percent each).
Sandy Alomar Jr. and Darrin Fletcher (22 percent each).
Pudge Rodriguez (41 percent) and Jorge Fabregas (40).
Mike Piazza (13 percent) and Lenny Webster (14).
Of course, not all those stolen bases are the catcher's fault. You might have heard that someplace (probably from a catcher). Brook Fordyce threw out 10 of 24 base-stealers with the White Sox, then went to Baltimore and threw out six of 47.
Devil Rays media-relations genius Rick Vaughn reports that those Rays still haven't peeled the bulls eyes off their uniforms. They've now led their league in being hit by a pitch three straight years. Last team to do that: the 1941-43 White Sox.
That ageless Doug Jones finally announced his retirement this week. He'd led all active right-handed pitchers in career appearances (with 846). So the new leaders are now Rick Aguilera (732), John Wetteland (618) and Jeff Brantley (597). And what do those three have in common? They're all unemployed free agents at the moment. And Aguilera and Wetteland are both mulling retirement themselves.
One of many reasons Turk Wendell might have had for not wanting to leave the Mets: His road ERA this season was 5.54. His ERA at Shea: 1.99.
Trivia answer
Here they are, believe it or not:
Pedro Martinez: 19-23-18
Greg Maddux: 18-19-19
Randy Johnson: 19-17-19
David Wells: 18-17-20
Aaron Sele: 19-18-17
Dave Burba: 15-15-16
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. | |
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