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Yankees vs. A's |
Mariners vs. White Sox |
Braves vs. Cardinals |
Mets vs. Giants
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Monday, October 9
Five questions: Mets vs. Giants
By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com
1. Can the Mets left-handers dominate?
The Giants may have chewed up Randy Johnson on Sunday. But their
vulnerability to left-handed pitching in general this year makes this a
dangerous matchup.
|  | | Mike Piazza has been anything but Mr. October. And he's not alone. |
The Mets will start Mike Hampton (9-0 lifetime against the Giants in 15
career starts) and Al Leiter (against whom the Giants have batted .195) in
Games 1 and 2. Then they can go to Glendon Rusch later in the series.
The Giants, meanwhile, have gone 19-20 this year in games started by
left-handers (versus 78-45 vs. right-handed starters). Their team average is
12 points lower against left-handers (.269) than right-handers.
And then there's Barry Bonds: .220 average, .320 on-base versus
left-handers; .340, .487 versus right-handers.
"You know Bonds did NOT want to face the Mets," said one scout. "He's never
had a good postseason. (More on that later.) Now he's facing those good
left-handers with the Mets. And that's why this is a tough series for the
Giants."
But it's not just Bonds. Marvin Benard (.216 vs. LHP, .273 vs. RHP) and J.T.
Snow (.256, 4 HR vs. LHP, .292, 15 HR vs. RHP) are also much different
hitters against left-handers.
So the keys to this whole series could be Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks.
2. Can Bonds and Piazza pretend this is August?
It's always a mystery why great players crash and burn in October. And right
up there on our list of Unexplained Postseason Mysteries are Bonds and Mike
Piazza.
As a Pirate in the 1990, '91 and '92 playoffs, Bonds hit .181 (13 for 68) with one home
run and three RBI. In his only playoff visit as a Giant, in the '97
division series against the Marlins, he was homerless, with two RBI and
three hits in 12 at-bats. Those totals: .200, one homer, five RBI, 13
whiffs in 20 games. His teams have never won a postseason series (0 for 4).
But Piazza has run into equal frustration. In the 14 playoff games he has
started, his teams are 3-11. He has hit .211, with one homer (thought it was
a big one in Game 6 in Atlanta last year) and seven RBI.
Bonds has admitted he tries too hard to rise to meet the moment in these
games. Piazza was simply a physical wreck by the time he reached the
postseason last year. So there are extenuating circumstances. But it's
easier to envision the Giants winning with Bonds struggling than the Mets
winning with Piazza scuffling.
For what it's worth, Piazza hit .467 against the Giants this season (7 for
15, 2 HR, 4 RBI in 5 games). Bonds hit .323 against the Mets (10 for 31, 1
HR, 4 RBI, 8 runs in 8 games).
3. Can the Giants keep riding their second-half wave?
No team in either league had a better finish than the Giants, a team that
was 32 games over .500 (59-27) from July 1 on. But will that momentum help
them now?
The evidence is far from encouraging.
According to Ken Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau, the Giants are the 16th
team since division play began in 1969 to go at least 30 games over .500
after July 1. Of the previous 15, only five won the World Series:
1998 Yankees
1979 Pirates
1975 Reds
1970 Orioles
1969 Mets
The Giants also wound up with the best record in baseball (97-65) -- for the
first time since 1962. And ESPN research geninus Jeff Bennett reports that
since 1990, only once has the team with the best record in baseball won the
World Series. That, of course, was the '98 Yankees. Four of the other eight
didn't even make it to the World Series.
But in a season with no dominant teams, many baseball people think those
numbers won't get in the way of this Giants juggernaut.
"I just think this is their year," said one scout. "I just like the way they
play. They're not a great team. But they know how to play. They don't have a
weak link in their whole lineup. Their pitching is deep. And they're so
steady. They get behind by two or four runs and they just peck away. They
use the whole field. They're very disciplined hitters. And they have a way
of getting that big hit when they need it."
4. Can the Mets win at Pac Bell?
No playoff team has a bigger home-road disparity than the Giants. Not only
did they go an absurd 54-18 in their last 72 games at home, but they play
differently at home.
Their team ERA on the road is 4.99. But at home, it's 3.45.
Their team batting average on the road is .273. At Pac Bell, it's 10
points higher (.283).
They've lost ONE of their last 16 series at home. They've lost six
of their last 16 series on the road.
And the man who will start Game 1, Livan Hernandez, was practically
Juan Marichal at home (12-3, 2.98) -- but Salomon Torres on the road (5-8,
4.61).
"That tells you about Livan," said an NL scout. "He pitches as well as he
wants to."
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Since the wild-card format was implemented in 1995, just one team has won
the World Series after having a losing record on the road -- the '97 Marlins.
So the Mets face tough odds. ” |
In the Mets, the Giants have a team that plays right into their
sourdough-filled hands. The Mets are the only one of the eight playoff teams
that had a losing record on the road (39-42). And in their only trip to Pac
Bell, they were swept in a four-game series in San Francisco for the first
time since 1962.
Since the wild-card format was implemented in 1995, just one team has won
the World Series after having a losing record on the road -- the '97 Marlins.
So the Mets face tough odds.
Of course, they were in exactly the same position last October, when they
upset an Arizona team that was 52-29 on the road. But remember, the Mets
were 14 games over .500 (48-34) on the road last year. So they're not quite
in a parallel situation.
5. Battle of the bullpens
While both teams have deep rotations, the strength of their pitching staffs
is relief pitching -- and particularly late relief.
If there are two better closers out there than Armando Benitez and Robb Nen,
let us know. We'd like to be their agent.
Nen is 28 for 28 since his last blown save, on July 2. Over his last 32
appearances, he's allowed exactly two earned runs (30 2/3 IP, 13 hits, 46
strikeouts). And he's given up one home run to a right-handed hitter all year
(to Jose Nieves on May 26).
But Benitez has been just as untouchable: 106 strikeouts versus only 39
hits, a .148 batting average allowed, a 1.62 ERA since the All-Star break,
22 for his last 23 in save conversions. And his last nine (straight) saves have included 1 2/3 final innings.
"Nen is probably the best reliever in the game right now," said one scout.
"But Benitez is almost as good. The key, to me, is the depth of the two
bullpens. And I like the Giants' depth. Felix Rodriguez has really improved.
(Alan) Embree has improved. The Mets are OK if they can get to Turk Wendell.
But they can be a little shaky if you get to their bullpen before Wendell
gets in there in the seventh or eighth."
This series easily could be decided by which team does a better job of
getting to its closer. So for future reference, Nen threw three shutout
innings against the Mets this year -- but Benitez had a 6.75 ERA against the
Giants, allowing a three-run homer to Kent on May 4.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com
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