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Mariners vs. Yankees |
Mets vs. Cardinals
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Tuesday, October 10
Five questions: Mariners vs. Yankees
By Tim Kurkjian
ESPN The Magazine
Yankees and Mariners. A-Rod against Jeter. Sweet Lou against his old team. Big bucks vs. Starbucks. The two-time defending champions, hanging on the ropes, against the fresh challengers.
|  | | Alex Rodriguez will play against his good friend, Derek Jeter, in the ALCS. |
Here are five questions about the American League Championship Series, which starts Tuesday night:
1. In what shape is the Yankee rotation?
Not great. Denny Neagle, who pitched so poorly in September that he didn't even get a start in the Division Series while Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte pitched on three days' rest, will start Game 1. He got pounded (10 hits, seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings) in his only start against Seattle this year. Neagle will be followed by Orlando Hernandez, who is becoming one of the best postseason pitchers of this era.
Pettitte moves ahead of Clemens in the rotation. Pettitte saved Clemens in Game 2 against Oakland, throwing 7 2/3 shutout innings, but he was hit hard in Game 5. Pettitte, however, allowed 14 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings (three starts) against Seattle this year. Clemens allowed seven runs, but only one earned in 12 innings, against the M's this year. At least he and Pettitte will be going on full rest.
Then comes Clemens for Game 4. He has made 14 postseason starts; he has won three, and his team has lost 10. This doesn't make sense. He is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time, yet in October, he is someone else. Forget previous October failings; this year alone, he lost a 2-0 lead and the game in the opener against Oakland. Then, in a clinch situation, Clemens got hammered and lost to 22-year-old Barry Zito in Game 4.
2. How good is Alex Rodriguez?
He is the best player in the game, and this is his chance to show it to the world. He is, above all, a shortstop, one who hit 41 homers and drove in 132 runs this season while playing in the best pitcher's park in the league. He made 10 errors, an obscenely low total for a guy with his range. He played well against Chicago in the Division Series, getting key hits and playing great defense. He is the leader of this team, one that's not supremely talented, but plays the game correctly, plays it hard and wins with pitching, defense, clutch hitting and intelligence.
And A-Rod loves the big stage. Against the Yankees this year, he went 14-for-36 with four home runs. Lifetime, he is a .342 hitter against them with 18 homers. He's going to finish second in the AL MVP race behind Oakland's great first baseman Jason Giambi, but we have a feeling that a few years from now, when Rodriguez has two MVP trophies, we're going to wonder why he didn't win one in 1996, and why he didn't win another in 2000.
3. How tired are the Yankees?
Exhausted, no doubt. They played deep into Saturday night, then flew across country to Oakland and played at 5 p.m. PT Sunday. Then they flew back to New York after the game and will have roughly 36 hours before opening the LCS against the Mariners, who last played Friday. And following Game 2 at Yankee Stadium, they have to fly to the West Coast for the third time in 10 days.
Yes, the Yankees are old and tired, but these are the playoffs. Did they look tired in the first inning of Game 5 when they torched Gil Heredia for six runs? Did Mariano Rivera, the most dominant postseason reliever of our time, if not any time, look tired as he tore through the A's in the eighth and ninth innings of Game 5? These are the Yankees, and these are the playoffs. No team knows how to play through fatigue, distractions and controversy better than they do.
Derek Jeter said the A's series was the toughest one he has ever been part of. Bernie Williams says he has never been in a game as intense as Game 5 against Oakland. And yet somehow the Yankees won. They aren't done -- and will never be done -- until we see Jeter, Rivera and Paul O'Neill walking off as losers. That is still a hard sight to imagine, tired or not.
4. In what shape is the Seattle rotation?
Like the Yankees rotation, not great. Jamie Moyer, who was scheduled to start Game 4, is out for the series with a hairline fracture of his right knee. Freddy Garcia will start Game 1. Garcia was 5-1 in September, but he got knocked around in his start against Chicago in the ALDS. John Halama will start Game 2. If nothing else, he will not beat himself. Aaron Sele, Seattle's best starter, will pitch Game 3, but he is 4-8 lifetime against the Yankees.
Paul Abbott, who was supposed to pitch out of the bullpen in this series, will start Game 4 instead of Moyer. He threw a gem against New York on Aug. 6, but lifetime he's allowed 21 earned runs in 27 innings against the Bombers. That Seattle bullpen was fabulous against Chicago, and it should be very good again, especially closer Kazuhiro Sasaki. The only concern might be the Mariners' two hard-throwing set-up guys -- Jose Paniagua, who has never pitched in games this big, and Jose Mesa, who, remarkably, still throws in the mid-90s, but has had problems in high-pressure games.
5. How will Chuck Knoblauch be used?
He should be the DH and leadoff hitter. Yankees manager Joe Torre lectured Knoblauch on the flight to Oakland, telling him it was unprofessional to not take ground balls during batting practice. Knoblauch shouldn't be playing second base in this series. His throwing problem cannot be trusted. Luis Sojo was terrific defensively and got some clutch hits against the A's.
But Knoblauch is a valuable offensive player, a quality leadoff man who can hit, work deep counts and steal a base. The Yankees are at their best when Knoblauch is hitting leadoff and Jeter, the best No. 2 hitter in the game, is hitting second. Knoblauch is a more versatile offensive player than either Glenallen Hill or Jose Canseco. Plus, they can come off the bench late in a game to face left-hander Arthur Rhodes.
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