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Thursday, September 7 Computers still crunching the numbers By Chris Fowler Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||
While you are devouring your turkey and fixin's this week, the eight computers used in the BCS formula hungrily await to be fed input from the long weekend's two most significant games: Nebraska at Colorado and Boston College at Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the research night owl of the ESPN research department has been chewing on the numbers himself. He finds them mighty tasty.
Pass the logarithms, please 1. Virginia Tech has a slim lead over Nebraska for second place. The margin is 0.63. Normally, that's not a big gap in the BCS formula. But, consider that a Tech win of any margin almost guarantees its continued lead over the Cornhuskers in the polls. Nebraska's "penalty point" for the loss at Texas (added to the numbers from the other three categories) will obviously not change, either. 2. A third component, schedule strength, won't change too much this weekend. Colorado and Boston College are similar opponents in the minds of the computers. The Huskers' rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game (which Nebraska would set up by beating the Buffs) will help, but not as much as you might think. The Longhorns are not rated in the top 10 of three of the power ratings. The computers remember that K-State soundly beat the Longhorns in Austin, even if the pollsters don't. 3. That leaves the eight computer ratings that together make up 25 percent of the formula as the key component. Tech has an overall computer average that is higher than Nebraska's. The Hokies rank second behind FSU in six of the eight computer ratings. Nebraska is first in the Dunkel index, but ranks behind Tech in those six. Bored, yet? OK, here's what it all means: the Huskers must jump over Tech in some of the six power ratings to gain the overall edge and head to New Orleans. Tech must hold its lead in a couple of them to stay on course. So, what will it take? You guessed it. Margins of victory matter. A great deal. More for the Hokies than the Huskers. Our best guess (and that's all you can get, even after Brad's wee hours canoodling with the calculator) is that Virginia Tech does in fact control its destiny. In two of the six ratings in question, a Nebraska move up seems likely if wins over CU and Texas are plugged in. In two others, the Hokies seem safe as long as they beat B.C. It's really close in the other two. That's where margin of victory weighs in. Tech's mission: not just win, but win with as much ease as the computers believe they should. A repeat of the narrow escape at West Virginia would spell trouble if Nebraska wins convincingly. How much is enough? Probably two or three touchdowns. Again, we're only projecting here. There's no way to give a definite margin needed. Most computers rate Tech about three to three-and-a-half TDs better than B.C. (not coincidentally, so does Vegas). So, to not disappoint the computers and justify their rating, the Hokies need to shoot for that margin. Really blowing out B.C. won't be that big of a help in most of the ratings, although it wouldn't hurt. Failing to win by 10 points or so could be very costly. For Nebraska, margin doesn't matter quite as much. Again, we believe that the Hokies would have to falter and win close to open the door for the Huskers to have a chance in a couple of these ratings. Again, though, a woodshed job over the Buffs (who, by the way, have given them plenty of trouble in tight losses each of the last three years) couldn't hurt. But it probably wouldn't be enough by itself.
Right or wrong And some androids do, too -- like the characters in the classic "Blade Runner." And maybe that Data guy in Star Trek, the Next Generation. I think in some episodes he's kind of empowered with human feelings, right? It always seems to spell trouble for them, too. Harrison Ford had to hunt down the "thinking/feeling" droids in Blade Runner.
OK, enough. BCS computers don't care that worrying about margin of victory can get you beat. They don't know about sportsmanship. They don't know that a B.C. team that just got a huge boost of confidence by rallying for a great win at Notre Dame is not a punching bag. If you play "coulda/shoulda" for a couple of seconds, you realize that B.C. might easily be unbeaten. The Eagles blew a 28-0 lead against Miami, and were lulled to sleep by the "spring scrimmage" atmosphere at the Vet (to steal Kirk Herbstreit's description) and lost to Temple -- two things they should not have done. Bottom line, B.C. is better than the computer thinks. And it is good enough to pull the uspet in Blacksburg, if Tech cooperates. Frank Beamer has been very low-key about all this BCS stuff so far. He's simply said that he has "faith in the system." My guess is that if the Hokies handle B.C. on Friday, he'll have to make some kind of statement laying out Tech's case. Not lobbying, just making the case for Tech: the Hokies at 11-0 deserve nothing less than the chance to prove their national title credentials on the field. If they are jumped by Nebraska -- and end up in the Orange Bowl -- they could still claim a share of the national title. For that to happen, they would have to win, then root for a Nebraska win in New Orleans and hope the AP pollsters elevated them to No. 1 as the only unbeaten. The coaches' poll title automatically goes to the winner of the Sugar Bowl.
Boulder battle Tom Osborne always saved something special for the Buffs: a new formation or some type of trick play. They usually succeeded. Often, Nebraska struck quickly -- in the first series -- with some wrinkle. It remains to be seen if Frank Solich can create the same kind of confusion with new looks. The Huskers certainly do not have the same kind of big-play threat with their I-backs as the vintage teams. That means if CU can stop the basic Nebraska stuff -- the fullback, the option keepers, etc. -- well, the defense is talented enough to make this an interesting battle. You have a chance against Nebraska if you force the Huskers to use their backup plan: trick plays using Bobby Newcombe. Texas made it work by stopping the Huskers' interior running game, but it still took a lot of help from the Big Red in the form of fumbles. There, I've spent almost my entire column on Thanksgiving week reflecting not on the heart-warming or uplifting or inspirational, but on the fine points of the computer formulas. But that's going to have to do it for this week because I am off to Madison Square Garden. Mighty Metallica is playing there tonight, accompanied by an entire orchestra. I have a really good ticket and a laminate. Fuel, Master of Puppets, For Whom the Bell Tolls, Wherever I Roam, Sad But True, One, and Enter Sandman live, with a whole bunch of violins and french horns -- well, I'm out of here. I hope you understand. Have a nice holiday. | ALSO SEE College football Top 25 overview Game of the Week: Boston College at Virginia Tech Herbstreit's viewer's guide Bowl Championship Series rankings |
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