Chris Fowler
 
Thursday, September 7
Computers still crunching the numbers




While you are devouring your turkey and fixin's this week, the eight computers used in the BCS formula hungrily await to be fed input from the long weekend's two most significant games: Nebraska at Colorado and Boston College at Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the research night owl of the ESPN research department has been chewing on the numbers himself. He finds them mighty tasty.

Frank Solich
Frank Solich and Nebraska were holding out hope for the No. 2 spot in the BCS.

His name is Brad Edwards, and he's not content to just wait until the games are played, plug in the scores, and see who gets to go to New Orleans for the big party. So Brad spends a lot of late nights in the office, calls the guys who run these various power ratings (and they always seem to be guys...women don't seem to dedicate large chunks of their lives to such things) and tries to figure out the exact same thing that the two Franks (Solich and Beamer), their teams and their fans want to know: what it's going take to earn a spot alongside Florida State in the Nokia Sugar Bowl. Specifically, can Nebraska leap over Virginia Tech by beating Colorado and Texas?

That's the question not even Regis or that IRS guy who just won a million bucks on Philbin's show can answer with certainty. Heck, not even Brad knows for sure. But between us, we make a couple educated guesses.

Pass the logarithms, please
So, are you smacking your lips for a Thanksgiving-sized portion of the BCS math? Didn't think so. But, here are a few byte-sized pieces of info that will help amaze whatever BCS-challenged folks you have over to the house to watch games with Friday.

1. Virginia Tech has a slim lead over Nebraska for second place. The margin is 0.63. Normally, that's not a big gap in the BCS formula. But, consider that a Tech win of any margin almost guarantees its continued lead over the Cornhuskers in the polls. Nebraska's "penalty point" for the loss at Texas (added to the numbers from the other three categories) will obviously not change, either.

2. A third component, schedule strength, won't change too much this weekend. Colorado and Boston College are similar opponents in the minds of the computers. The Huskers' rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game (which Nebraska would set up by beating the Buffs) will help, but not as much as you might think. The Longhorns are not rated in the top 10 of three of the power ratings. The computers remember that K-State soundly beat the Longhorns in Austin, even if the pollsters don't.

3. That leaves the eight computer ratings that together make up 25 percent of the formula as the key component. Tech has an overall computer average that is higher than Nebraska's. The Hokies rank second behind FSU in six of the eight computer ratings. Nebraska is first in the Dunkel index, but ranks behind Tech in those six. Bored, yet?

OK, here's what it all means: the Huskers must jump over Tech in some of the six power ratings to gain the overall edge and head to New Orleans. Tech must hold its lead in a couple of them to stay on course. So, what will it take? You guessed it. Margins of victory matter. A great deal. More for the Hokies than the Huskers.

Our best guess (and that's all you can get, even after Brad's wee hours canoodling with the calculator) is that Virginia Tech does in fact control its destiny. In two of the six ratings in question, a Nebraska move up seems likely if wins over CU and Texas are plugged in. In two others, the Hokies seem safe as long as they beat B.C. It's really close in the other two. That's where margin of victory weighs in.

Tech's mission: not just win, but win with as much ease as the computers believe they should. A repeat of the narrow escape at West Virginia would spell trouble if Nebraska wins convincingly.

How much is enough? Probably two or three touchdowns. Again, we're only projecting here. There's no way to give a definite margin needed. Most computers rate Tech about three to three-and-a-half TDs better than B.C. (not coincidentally, so does Vegas). So, to not disappoint the computers and justify their rating, the Hokies need to shoot for that margin. Really blowing out B.C. won't be that big of a help in most of the ratings, although it wouldn't hurt. Failing to win by 10 points or so could be very costly.

For Nebraska, margin doesn't matter quite as much. Again, we believe that the Hokies would have to falter and win close to open the door for the Huskers to have a chance in a couple of these ratings. Again, though, a woodshed job over the Buffs (who, by the way, have given them plenty of trouble in tight losses each of the last three years) couldn't hurt. But it probably wouldn't be enough by itself.

Right or wrong
Computers don't wrestle with philosophical questions and don't have consciences. OK, HAL did in 2001. But it got him in trouble.

And some androids do, too -- like the characters in the classic "Blade Runner." And maybe that Data guy in Star Trek, the Next Generation. I think in some episodes he's kind of empowered with human feelings, right? It always seems to spell trouble for them, too. Harrison Ford had to hunt down the "thinking/feeling" droids in Blade Runner.

FOWLER'S AP BALLOT
1. Florida State: The 'Noles finally justify their ranking and look like a No. 1 team. Still, the '92, '93 or '96 teams would have handled them. But in '99, this is the team that deserves to be at the top entering the bowls.

2. Virginia Tech: The Hokies must avoid playing tight Friday. When they relax and play with abandon, they can be devastating. If you think this team would be no match for FSU, think again. Vegas would make them a TD underdog, but they would have a good chance.

3. Nebraska: Can't rank the Huskers ahead of an unbeaten Tech team, but there's no doubting this team's defensive mettle. The Huskers are on a roll now, fueled by the loss at Texas.

4. Wisconsin: Interesting to see how they respond to having about 50 days off between their finale and the Rose Bowl.

5. Kansas State: Cats took out their frustration over being spanked in Lincoln on poor Mizzou, 66-0. This is a team more deserving of a BCS bid than Michigan or Michigan State, and no less qualified than Tennessee, but probably will get squeezed out.

OK, enough. BCS computers don't care that worrying about margin of victory can get you beat. They don't know about sportsmanship. They don't know that a B.C. team that just got a huge boost of confidence by rallying for a great win at Notre Dame is not a punching bag. If you play "coulda/shoulda" for a couple of seconds, you realize that B.C. might easily be unbeaten. The Eagles blew a 28-0 lead against Miami, and were lulled to sleep by the "spring scrimmage" atmosphere at the Vet (to steal Kirk Herbstreit's description) and lost to Temple -- two things they should not have done. Bottom line, B.C. is better than the computer thinks. And it is good enough to pull the uspet in Blacksburg, if Tech cooperates.

Frank Beamer has been very low-key about all this BCS stuff so far. He's simply said that he has "faith in the system." My guess is that if the Hokies handle B.C. on Friday, he'll have to make some kind of statement laying out Tech's case. Not lobbying, just making the case for Tech: the Hokies at 11-0 deserve nothing less than the chance to prove their national title credentials on the field. If they are jumped by Nebraska -- and end up in the Orange Bowl -- they could still claim a share of the national title. For that to happen, they would have to win, then root for a Nebraska win in New Orleans and hope the AP pollsters elevated them to No. 1 as the only unbeaten. The coaches' poll title automatically goes to the winner of the Sugar Bowl.

Boulder battle
Nebraska also has something to fear by worrying about the margin Friday. The Huskers should be able to handle Colorado if they do not do two things: 1) Allow the Buffs several long pass plays; and 2) Put the ball on the ground a few times. The Buffs will not be able to construct long drives against the defense led by CU grad Charlie McBride. They will have to rely on busting long gainers, as they did late in the K-State game. If the Blackshirts' secondary forces CU to march the field -- and the offense avoids mistakes that would give CU the short field -- then Nebraska will win comfortably.

Tom Osborne always saved something special for the Buffs: a new formation or some type of trick play. They usually succeeded. Often, Nebraska struck quickly -- in the first series -- with some wrinkle. It remains to be seen if Frank Solich can create the same kind of confusion with new looks. The Huskers certainly do not have the same kind of big-play threat with their I-backs as the vintage teams. That means if CU can stop the basic Nebraska stuff -- the fullback, the option keepers, etc. -- well, the defense is talented enough to make this an interesting battle. You have a chance against Nebraska if you force the Huskers to use their backup plan: trick plays using Bobby Newcombe. Texas made it work by stopping the Huskers' interior running game, but it still took a lot of help from the Big Red in the form of fumbles.

There, I've spent almost my entire column on Thanksgiving week reflecting not on the heart-warming or uplifting or inspirational, but on the fine points of the computer formulas. But that's going to have to do it for this week because I am off to Madison Square Garden. Mighty Metallica is playing there tonight, accompanied by an entire orchestra. I have a really good ticket and a laminate. Fuel, Master of Puppets, For Whom the Bell Tolls, Wherever I Roam, Sad But True, One, and Enter Sandman live, with a whole bunch of violins and french horns -- well, I'm out of here.

I hope you understand. Have a nice holiday.






ALSO SEE
College football Top 25 overview

Game of the Week: Boston College at Virginia Tech

Herbstreit's viewer's guide

Bowl Championship Series rankings















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