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 Thursday, October 7
A big difference by Favre
 
By Joe Theismann
Special to ESPN.com

 The Green Bay Packers are 2-1, but they could easily be 0-3. They are a young team, with little depth and several rookies backing up veterans, especially on defense.

Brett Favre
Brett Favre has already led the Packers to two comeback victories this season.
Having Brett Favre on their side has allowed the Packers to take some chances on defense. Green Bay's first three draft picks were defensive backs; the Packers felt like they needed them to compete with offensive teams like the Minnesota Vikings. The decision to play young talent has led to three consecutive close games in which Favre has been asked to save the Packers from defeat.

In this NFC Central matchup on Sunday night, I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a better overall football team than the Packers. The Bucs have the best defense in football. But can they stay that way without Warren Sapp? He is listed as probable, but with a broken wrist he won't be as effective. Sapp with two good hands is great, and maybe the best defensive player in football this year. Sapp with a bubble on his hand is just a good tackle.

The wild card in this game is Favre's exceptional ability to make plays. The Packers are a good offensive football team with Dorsey Levens back. But Green Bay is going to score and win football games on the arm of Favre.

Here are the keys for both teams in Sunday night's game:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Dilfer at his best: Trent Dilfer must have a better game than he has had all year. The Bucs can't go into the game expecting to win 13-10.

It's not difficult to figure out the Bucs' game plan. Tampa Bay is going to try to run the football with Mike Alstott. Warrick Dunn probably will be utilized more in the passing game than the running game. But the Bucs have pretty good receivers in Reidel Anthony and Bert Emanuel going against young cornerbacks.

That means the receivers and Dilfer will have to make plays. The Bucs should do more than just convert on third down. How long can you play games where your quarterback has to be content taking a sack? Dilfer will be called on to do more than that against the Packers. The Bucs haven't scored more than 19 points in four games. That won't be enough because Favre can easily make three big scoring plays.

2. Taking chances in the kicking game: The Bucs are willing to open things up on special teams. They will run fake field goals, put Dunn in the shotgun and split Dilfer out, which is what they did in their Week 3 victory over Denver. In order to create some big plays, Tampa Bay will gamble in its kicking game to supplement what the offense does. They might be conservative on offense, but not as much on special teams.

3. Middle pressure on Favre: Tampa Bay can take a lesson from what Detroit does against the Packers -- pressure up the middle on Favre. The middle has to contain him. They can't let Favre escape the pocket and run around -- if he does, then the defensive backs will have to stay with the fast Packer receivers. One of the differences between the approach of former coach Mike Holmgren and current offensive coordinator Sherm Lewis is that the Packers are more aggressive trying to throw the ball downfield.

Green Bay Packers
1. Score quickly: The Packers would love to get some quick scores and take Alstott out of the game. They need to make the big plays early and force the Bucs to play catch-up. Favre needs to get the ball right away to his receivers, who are a quicker group than he had before. With Bill Schroeder and Corey Bradford, Antonio Freeman -- their playmaker at receiver -- is probably their third- or fourth-fastest receiver now.

2. Use the tight end: John Lynch, the Bucs' strong safety who is more like a linebacker, will have to cover tight ends Tyrone Davis and Jeff Thomason. The Packers should take advantage of Lynch's aggressiveness and try to expose his coverage skills. Davis and Thomason should be able to win this matchup with Lynch. The tight end becomes a very big part of this game for Green Bay.

3. Make Dilfer beat you: Defensively, the Packers need to stop the run and force Dilfer to make plays. They can't allow Alstott to rush 25 times for 100 yards. Usually, when that happens, the Bucs will win because they will be in control. and they will have controlled everything.

The Packers defense, however, misses the presence of Reggie White. Nobody would run at him. White was sort of like the defensive line's answer to Deion Sanders. Teams would test him, but not make a living over there. Second-year man Vonnie Holliday is a good defensive end, but he is a kid who is still learning. With a young secondary and no White, the Packers are solid but unexceptional.

Former NFL quarterback Joe Theismann works as a game analyst for ESPN's Sunday Night Football. He breaks down the Sunday night matchup every week for ESPN.com.

 


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