French Grand Prix preview: Mercedes seeks momentum swing with upgraded engine in France

Ferrari's first win in Canada since 2004 has tightened up the drivers' world championship with Sebastian Vettel leading Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton by a solitary point heading into the French Grand Prix.

Focus on... Has Ferrari overtaken Mercedes on high-speed tracks?

Round eight of the Formula One championship sees the French Grand Prix make its highly-anticipated return to the calendar with Paul Ricard hosting a race for the first time since 1990.

In 1991 France's race location was switched to Magny-Cours before the nation lost its slot entirely at the conclusion of the 2008 season. This weekend's grand prix will end a 190 race drought between French GPs and with three French drivers as well as a French constructor in Renault on the grid, it's fair to say its addition in 2018 is much welcomed.

Of the current crop of drivers only Kimi Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have competed in an F1 race on French soil. Only Alonso (2005) and Raikkonen (2007) have claimed wins.

The high-speed nature of Paul Ricard is somewhat comparable to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve where Ferrari stormed to pole position and the race win through Vettel last time out. Mercedes' dominance at high-speed circuits in the V6 turbo era saw them installed as favourites in Montreal but Ferrari's blistering pace -- particularly in the final sector -- meant the Silver Arrows were fighting all weekend to be second best.

The introduction of Mercedes' upgraded power unit this weekend, which it was unable to bring to Montreal, may well tip the balance back in favour of the reigning world champions -- if it fails to, it will suggest a significant shift in momentum towards Ferrari.

Sebastian Vettel of Ferrari leads Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes by one point in the drivers' championship.
Sebastian Vettel of Ferrari leads Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes by one point in the drivers' championship.
Dan Istitene/Getty Images

In need of a win? Lewis Hamilton

After consecutive wins in Azerbaijan and Spain, we didn't think we'd be highlighting Hamilton as someone who needs a win anytime soon.

However, two rather poor outings -- by his standards, at least -- has seen Vettel leapfrog him in the drivers' championship. In fact, if teammate Valtteri Bottas didn't pick up a puncture on the penultimate lap in Baku, right now the championship standings would look like this: Vettel (119), Hamilton (113), Bottas (111).

In both Monaco and Canada the reigning world champion seemed a little too disheartened with Mercedes' lack of pace relative to Red Bull and Ferrari but a fresh engine for the French Grand Prix should give him an edge as he looks to respond and even up the ledger with Vettel at three wins apiece in season 2018. 

Read into this as you will but statistically round eight of a season is Hamilton's worst in terms of win percentage, having only scored one win from 11 races. 

In need of points? Haas

After such a promising start to the season which saw Haas billed as the new leader of Formula One's midfield, the American team has slipped down the pecking order to sit eighth in the championship, ahead of only Sauber and Williams.

Haas has not scored points since May's Spanish Grand Prix when Kevin Magnussen claimed an impressive sixth place behind the Mercedes and Red Bull quartet and Ferrari's Vettel. The VF-18 never looked well suited to the tight and twisty Monte Carlo Street Circuit and while they demonstrated some strong pace during practice in Canada they were yet again nowhere to be seen on race day.

Nevertheless, Hass was able to introduce a significant aerodynamic upgrade ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix and team boss Guenther Steiner is confident of seeing rapid improvement in the coming races.

With a third of the season gone, Magnussen owns the team's entire points haul of 19 with teammate Romain Grosjean still yet to score. Grosjean has actually gone 11 races without scoring points but if there was ever a time to snap that unwanted streak it's this weekend on home soil.

Tyre talk

Available compounds: Soft, Super-Soft and Ultra-Soft

Pirelli's pointers:

  • The track has been completely resurfaced in preparation for the French Grand Prix, resulting in smooth yet high-grip asphalt that is similar in character to Barcelona.
  • Weather conditions in the south of France at this time of year are expected to be very warm, which will likely increase wear and degradation rates.
  • To prepare for the French Grand Prix, Pirelli's engineers have taken recent asphalt samples to come up with an appropriate tyre nomination.

Minimum starting pressures: Front 22.5psi, rear 21psi

Weather forecast

As mention by Pirelli, temperatures in the south of France are quite high at this time of year.

The mercury is expected to soar to 31C for Friday practice before dropping to 26C on Saturday and Sunday. A forecast of scattered showers around the time of qualifying could mix the grid up nicely.

Sebastian Vettel of Ferrari won the Canadian Grand Prix ahead of Valtteri Bottas and Max Verstappen.
Sebastian Vettel of Ferrari won the Canadian Grand Prix ahead of Valtteri Bottas and Max Verstappen.
Mark Thompson/Getty Images

Betting

The bookmakers can't split Hamilton and Vettel this weekend with both drivers paying 6/4 to win France's first grand prix in a decade.

Once again the value is with Bottas who is the third favourite at 7/1. While the Finn is yet to break through with a win this season he has finished second on four occasions and should be in contention once again.

However, if you want some super value then perhaps you'll enjoy the odds on offer for a French driver to score a monumental home win. A Grosjean or Esteban Ocon victory is paying out 750/1 while a win for Toro Rosso's Pierre Gasly would pay a handsome 1,500/1.

ESPN's prediction

Since his dominant win in Spain, Hamilton has appeared a little off the boil so it only makes sense to pick the form man for the French Grand Prix.

Winner: Sebastian Vettel

Bonus prediction: Two French drivers to score points in France