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AFL W2W4, Finals Week 1: Can the Dees finally beat Geelong?

The bye weekend might have gone incredibly slowly (or maybe that's just us?), but the first week of the finals is rapidly approaching with Thursday night football again making a comeback in September.

Four fascinating contests are set to scratch that footy itch this weekend, with recent heavyweights Richmond taking on the stalwarts from Hawthorn, Sydney facing GWS in yet another Harbour City derby, Melbourne returning to the finals against experienced campaigners Geelong, and a massive first final at Perth's Optus Stadium.

Can Hawthorn produce an early upset? Will the Dees win their first final in 12 years? Can the Pies overcome travel, injuries, AND the odds to beat the Eagles?

This is What to Watch For, in Week 1 of the finals.

To tag or not to tag? Dimma's dilemma

If there's one team in the competition that can probably get away with not tagging Hawthorn's Tom Mitchell, it's Richmond.

The reigning premiers have been a class above everyone else this season en route to the minor premiership and a qualifying final win over the Hawks on Thursday night would have them as a short priced favourite to return to the AFL's big dance for the second straight year.

Richmond prevailed over Hawthorn earlier in the year by 11 points at the MCG a game where Mitchell could pick up the three Brownlow Medal votes for 42 possessions, 11 clearances and a goal. He was also the Hawks' best player when the sides met in Round 20 last year with a 35-disposal, nine-clearance and one-goal game.

Okay, we know what you're thinking - why tag Mitchell if the Tigers can win without doing so?

But in a final when scoring dries up and the game becomes ultra-contested, Mitchell -- the winner of the 2018 Leigh Matthews trophy -- could be the decisive factor.

In his last finals series (2016 with Sydney), Mitchell was just about the Swans' most consistent player. He averaged 27 possessions and 4.5 clearances per game (when he spent significantly less time in the midfield). Not to mention he was the favourite for the Norm Smith Medal at halftime in the 2016 grand final after picking up 15 possessions, laying eight tackles and booting two goals.

A Mitchell masterclass doesn't always equate to a Hawthorn win but in a final it just might. Don't say we didn't warn you, Dimma.

Will the Dees freeze in the spotlight?

The previous time Melbourne appeared in a finals match, Justin Timberlake's 'SexyBack' had just been replaced at the top of Australia's ARIA charts by 'I Wish I Was a Punk Rocker (With Flowers in My Hair)' by Sandi Thom. Who? Exactly. Needless to say, it has been a long wait for success-starved Melbourne fans.

After so much doom and gloom, the Demons have been patiently moulded -- firstly by Paul Roos and now Simon Goodwin -- into a hard-nosed, combative outfit that appears perfectly suited to the manic pressure of September.

Led by Max Gawn and a host of tough inside midfielders, the Dees finished the home and away season ranked No. 1 for contested possessions and centre clearances, not to mention scoring, inside 50s and marks inside 50.

But of course, the home and away season is over, and the vast majority of this Melbourne squad is entering uncharted territory: They are easily the lowest-ranked of the top-eight sides for finals experience, their total of only 44 games significantly boosted by ex-Hawk Jordan Lewis. Geelong, on the other hand, is ranked No. 3 with 209 finals among their players.

Those who have played in September regularly speak about it being a whole new ballgame. So how will the Demons cope under the finals spotlight? It's one of the great unknowns and it's probably an area the Cats will hope to exploit in front of an expected crowd of more than 90,000 at the MCG on Friday night.

This contest is shaping as a clash of contrasts: the experienced Cats vs. the upstarts from Melbourne; the dour defenders vs. the high-scorers (the Cats have conceded the fewest points this year while the Dees are the league's No. 1 for scoring); a side boasting an elite handful but with a weak bottom six (Geelong) against a team with fewer stars but a more even spread of contributors in the Demons.

As with the previous two games between these two this season, it's shaping up as a classic.

The Buddy barometer factor

A couple of months ago, the general consensus among footy pundits was that Sydney -- and Lance Franklin -- were cooked. Some said they'd miss the finals entirely after Swans coach John Longmire revealed Buddy had trained for just 20 minutes all year.

But a month (or so) is a long time in football and not long after the Swans were written off, they charged back into top four contention before a late loss to the Hawks consigned them to sixth and a home elimination final against the Giants.

We know what you're thinking -- they only played each other a couple of weeks ago and the Swans did it pretty easily, but there was a significant turning point in that match which swung the four points Sydney's way, and that was when Giants co-captain Phil Davis went down with a back injury. Franklin -- once free from Davis' shackles -- led Sydney to an important victory at Spotless Stadium.

So what does this have to do with this upcoming final? And what is the relevance of Sydney's (and Buddy's) poor form a few months ago? The Buddy barometer factor. When Davis was fit and firing and all over Buddy, the Giants were well on top. When he was off the ground, Lance ran riot.

The Buddy barometer factor is massive for Sydney, as it's been a common theme this year. When Sydney win with Buddy in the side, he averages 3.5 goals. In losses he only averages 2.5. A big day for Franklin should see the Swans home.

From a GWS perspective, the question will be whether or not Davis is back to full fitness and ready to tackle one of the game's best big-game players, as it could be the difference between progression and going home early.

Will the bye week help the Pies upset the Eagles?

Ask footy fans whether or not they like the idea of the pre-finals bye, and many will tell you it's rubbish. Pies fans, however, are counting their blessings this year as the bye week has allowed injured players Jeremy Howe and Adam Treloar to make a better case for selection.

Not only that, without the bye, the Pies would have been playing in Perth for the second straight week, after they beat Fremantle at Optus Stadium in Round 23.

So the bye has boosted the Magpies' chances to cause a boilover against the Eagles, but can they do it? We doubt it. With so much on the line, the prospect of staying in Perth until the last Saturday in September means Adam Simpson won't let this opportunity slip lightly.

With the Pies undermanned in defence -- as they have been all season -- West Coast's forwards in Kennedy, Darling, Cripps, Ryan and Rioli should all get their fair crack at the big sticks. Having averaged 101 points per game at home this season, it means Collingwood's patchwork defence will need to yet again put in a showing above and beyond what many believed was possible earlier in the season.

Where the Eagles will need to step up, however, is in the ruck. With Brodie Grundy securing a maiden All-Australian blazer last week, Scott Lycett will have his work cut out for him, and stopping the influential Grundy -- who is more agile and mobile than his West Coast counterpart -- will go a long way to winning what should be an entertaining encounter.