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AFL 2024: ESPN's way-too-early predictions - Lions' time coming? Blues tipped for success

Can the Magpies create a dynasty? Will the Lions finally break through after knocking on the door for years? How will surprise prelim teams Carlton and GWS fare? While so much can happen through the trade and draft periods, ESPN's AFL experts have nevertheless turned their attention to 2024 for their way-too-early predictions.

Below are their ladder predictions, expected grand finalists, biggest risers and biggest sliders, as well as Brownlow and Coleman Medal winners.


Jake Michaels

Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
GWS
Melbourne
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Sydney

Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Geelong
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Richmond
Essendon
North Melbourne
West Coast

Premier: Brisbane. The Lions took a gigantic leap forward in 2023 and will come back a better team next year after their heartbreaking loss to Collingwood in the Grand Final. Watch this space.

Runner up: If not for a horror eight game stretch who knows how the season could have unfolded for Carlton. That won't happen in 2024 and the Blues, led by Patrick Cripps, will make a run to the final game of the season.

Brownlow Medal: Tom Green. It's become somewhat of a trendy pick but I've been big on this one for four months now. Green was the best ball winner in the AFL this year and is the grunt of the Giants midfield. Expect him to take another significant leap in 2024 and be in contention for the league's best and fairest.

Coleman Medal: Why can't it be Nick Larkey? The Kangaroos spearhead booted 71 goals in a side that won just three games this season. And while I don't expect North Melbourne to make serious strides in the off-season, they should be more competitive and Larkey should have greater opportunity.

Biggest riser: I don't have a major riser for next season but I fully expect the Crows -- who showed plenty of promise in 2023 -- to jump into the top eight. I reckon they could even win a final.

Biggest slider: Technically it might be the Saints, but I reckon the major talking points will be the decline of the Tigers and Bombers. Both sides are far more likely to finish bottom four next year than play finals.

Biggest storyline: AFL great Patrick Dangerfield calls time on his Hall of Fame career and slots straight into the Channel 7 commentary box.

Rohan Connolly

Brisbane
Melbourne
Carlton
Collingwood
Adelaide
Hawthorn
GWS
Port Adelaide

Western Bulldogs
Sydney
Gold Coast
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
Essendon
Fremantle
North Melbourne
West Coast

Premier: Brisbane. It's an easy option to pick a beaten grand finalist to go one better, but this has been a very steady build by the Lions, they have great talent, a huge home advantage, and now important finals - and grand final experience. They needed to find one more goal to win in 2023. I'm confident they can do that in 2024.

Runner up: Melbourne. The Demons had no luck with their forward structure this year, but their defence and midfield were close to if not the best in the business, and they now have six months to get their preferred options when it comes to the scoreboard nailed down.

Brownlow Medal: Christian Petracca. This year's winner proved once a vote-winner, usually a vote-winner, and Petracca is brilliant and eye-catching week after week. His time is coming sooner than later.

Coleman Medal: Charlie Curnow. Carlton has clicked now in terms of turning it on week after week. I think that means a Coleman hat-trick for the brilliant Blue.

Biggest riser: Hawthorn. The Hawks' 16th place this year was incredibly misleading in terms of their capabilities. I'm confident they can not only improve on that substantially next year, but even make the final eight.

Biggest slider: St Kilda. I think the Saints did really well to finish sixth (pre-finals) given the overall talent on their list. They rely heavily on defence, and I think more sides might be able to pick them apart in 2024 whilst they supplement their stocks with more naturally-gifted players.

Biggest storyline: Massive political fall-out from opposition to proposed Hobart stadium puts whole concept of new Tasmanian AFL team at risk.

Matt Walsh

Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
Melbourne
GWS
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Gold Coast

Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Essendon
Geelong
Fremantle
Richmond
St Kilda
North Melbourne
West Coast

Premier: Carlton. The Blues were one of the form teams in the competition in the back half of the year, and having experienced three finals - two wins and a loss to a very good team in Brisbane, it'll hold them in good stead for a second straight campaign. A couple of offseason pieces and they should be better again.

Runner up: Collingwood - the Magpies will be there abouts again, and surely will find some more offseason forward firepower to round out what is a pretty complete team.

Brownlow Medal: Errol Gulden. He caught the umpires' eyes in 2023, and was almost a surprise winner. He's a lethal ball user and accumulated a lot of footy, and his ability to hit the scoreboard is so valuable.

Coleman Medal: Nick Larkey kicked 71 goals in a poor team last year, and hopefully with more opportunity and some class added to North's midfield, he can kick even more and win the Coleman in 2024.

Biggest riser: My ladder hasn't changed a heap from last year - there's a deep middle band of teams, so it's tough to pick. Perhaps the Gold Coast Suns, under Damien Hardwick, can surprise and sneak into the eight.

Biggest slider: St Kilda overachieved in 2023, and may find themselves back amongst the chasing pack in 2024.

Biggest storyline: 'Max Holmes qualifies for the Paris Olympics in 100m sprint'.

Jarryd Barca

Melbourne
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
GWS
Sydney
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs

Adelaide
Essendon
Gold Coast
Fremantle
Geelong
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Richmond
North Melbourne
West Coast

Premier: Melbourne will bounce back after two consecutive years that ended with a straight-sets exit. If Clayton Oliver can stay fit, they remain one of the best defences in the league, and they can sort out their forward line woes, then they'll again be difficult to beat and should feature at the pointy end.

Runner up: Carlton definitely has a top four-worthy talented list. They're only going in one direction and should be able to use the finals experience gained in 2023 to springboard them even further next season.

Brownlow Medal: It's a boring choice, but a full, uninterrupted season from Nick Daicos will make him difficult to surpass in the race for the AFL's most prestigious individual award. He polled three votes in seven games in 2023 and should again be prolific in Collingwood's wins.

Coleman Medal: His finals series was poor, but you can't ignore the 81 total goals Charlie Curnow booted this year, and the 64 in 2022. He's the best key forward in the game and, at his best, is in the discussion as one of the best players in the league.

Biggest riser: Strangely enough my ladder prediction, which is highly unlikely to be accurate, has Carlton rising by three positions which means they're my 'biggest' riser even though they made a prelim this year. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bombers shoot back up in a hurry, either.

Biggest slider: St Kilda. A lot will obviously depend on what happens in the offseason, but I just see more natural improvement in the other teams I have finishing ahead of them as of right now.

Biggest storyline: Harley Reid makes the All-Australian team in his first season in the AFL.