<
>

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl early look: Ohio State vs. Clemson

The stakes don't get much higher, and two programs that are plenty comfortable with the big stage are obviously well aware with what's on the line in the desert in the College Football Playoff. As the semifinal showdown draws closer, here's an early look at both the Clemson Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes ahead of the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.

How Clemson beats you: In the trenches. Sure, it’s the skill position guys who get all the hype. That makes sense with Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams & Co. putting up big numbers. But it’s the big guys at the line of scrimmage who make the difference. On offense, if the line can open up running lanes, Clemson’s offense is virtually unstoppable, and when Watson has time to look downfield, the big-play threats are numerous. On defense, the line is as good as any in football, led by Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence and Carlos Watkins. Ohio State’s ground game is its bread and butter, but the Tigers have a knack for blowing up plays in the backfield.

How Ohio State beats you: As cutting edge as his program might be, in many ways Urban Meyer uses a throwback approach to get the job done on the field. The Buckeyes have one of the nation’s most prolific rushing attacks and they lean on a suffocating defense, a vintage Big Ten approach if there ever was one. Of course, the power-spread playbook featuring Ohio State’s three-headed rushing attack and the way it unleashes a versatile, dynamic group of defenders to generate turnovers certainly provides an update to the old-school model. But establishing the run on offense and stuffing it on defense is a tried-and-true blueprint for the Buckeyes.

How to beat Clemson: Make the Tigers one-dimensional on offense. If Clemson’s offense had a weakness this season, it was the failures of the ground game to perform consistently. The Tigers had five games in which they averaged less than 4 yards per carry this season. They failed to win any of those by more than a touchdown. Watson is a dynamic player, but he can’t do it alone (as last year’s national title game proved). If Ohio State can stuff the run consistently, the job of stopping one of the nation’s best offenses becomes much easier. It’s worth noting, however, that Clemson averaged 229 yards rushing in its last three games.

How to beat Ohio State: Stopping Curtis Samuel, Mike Weber and J.T. Barrett in the backfield is obviously no small task, as Ohio State’s average of more than 250 rushing yards per game makes clear. But if opponents can limit the success of the Buckeyes on the ground and force Barrett and an inexperienced group of wide receivers to move the ball through the air, there’s a chance to avoid an uptempo shootout and potentially knock off Meyer’s club. Penn State was able to follow that formula and eventually capitalized with an upset victory after coming up with two critical plays on special teams, and Clemson will no doubt also by trying to copy some of what Michigan State and Michigan did defensively to cut down on Ohio State’s explosiveness.

X factor for the Tigers: Watson. This is no surprise, of course, but the bottom line for the Tigers is that Watson is arguably the biggest difference-maker in college football, and when he’s sharp, the Tigers are nearly impossible to beat. The two keys to watch for Watson will be turnovers (27 TDs, 13 interceptions his first 10 games, 10 TDs, two INTs the last three) and his willingness to run. Clemson largely used Watson as a pocket passer in 2016, but in its biggest games, he has run more. That’s a similar approach as last season, when he ran far more during the stretch run, and a dual-threat Watson is a scary proposition for any defense.

X factor for the Buckeyes: Samuel. Meyer has finally found a worthy heir to Percy Harvin in his vaunted H-back position, and there’s no doubt the Buckeyes will have spent their month of preparation trying to think of even more ways to get their do-it-all star involved offensively. The versatile junior has already proven how dangerous he can be as a rusher, receiver, special-teams threat and even a Wildcat quarterback, and he’s already turned that heavy workload into 15 touchdowns this season. Ohio State’s lone loss this season was also the game where Samuel was given a season-low total of just two carries. That’s not likely to happen again in the College Football Playoff.

Bold prediction (Clemson): Watson is nearly flawless. Ohio State has a terrific defense, but this is the moment Watson has been waiting for all season and he’s not going to let it slip through his grasp. He’s playing his best football over the past month, and after being snubbed for several postseason awards, he’s admittedly playing with a chip on his shoulder. The NFL awaits Watson, but he’s not leaving Clemson without a fight, which should translate into big numbers for the Tigers and a long day for the Buckeyes on D. -- David Hale

Bold prediction (Ohio State): The Buckeyes pick off Watson multiple times. If there’s a weakness for one of the nation’s most gifted passers, it’s a tendency to turn the football over. And if there’s a clear strength for Ohio State's secondary, it’s the ability to both force mistakes and capitalize on them. Watson has thrown 15 interceptions this season with a pair of three-pick games on his resume -- including the loss to Pittsburgh last month. Led by safety Malik Hooker, only three teams in the nation have nabbed more passes from opposing quarterbacks than the Buckeyes, and an aggressive defense will be hungry to add to its total of 19 picks during the regular season. -- Austin Ward