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Bills, still in quarterback purgatory, could save big changes for 2019

Will the Bills keep Tyrod Taylor around for another season and further delay their long-term quarterback decision? Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

In 2015, former Buffalo Bills general manager Doug Whaley notably used the term "quarterback purgatory" to describe his team's conundrum under center. The Bills were without a franchise signal-caller but rarely were bad enough to snag a top prospect near the top of the draft.

Three years later, has Buffalo's situation changed?

The Bills approach the start of the NFL's free-agent signing period next week and the draft next month having sent signals that they are comfortable keeping the status quo at quarterback and riding eighth-year veteran Tyrod Taylor and 2017 fifth-round pick Nathan Peterman into training camp.

If Taylor were a franchise quarterback, there would be discussion about extending his contract past this season. Instead, the Bills negotiated the final three seasons off his contract last year and seem more likely to dump his deal this offseason than add to it. Meanwhile, Peterman has miles to go before he would be in the conversation to be the Bills' long-term answer at the position.

Buffalo has less certainty going forward at quarterback than almost any other team in the league, yet the franchise's ability to defy the odds and snap a 17-year playoff drought last season has positioned the team closer to the bottom of the first round -- holding picks Nos. 21 (their own) and 22 (from Kansas City) -- than the top.

Whaley might no longer be in charge, having been fired hours after the NFL draft last April, but the case generally remains the same: The Bills are in quarterback purgatory, and there is no guarantee they pull out if it this season.

If signs from coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane the past week are any indication, Buffalo could punt its much-anticipated quarterback change to 2019. It would be the second consecutive offseason the Bills would have deferred major changes at quarterback, having kept Taylor last offseason and traded down in the draft from No. 10, instead of selecting Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.

Top available quarterback Kirk Cousins is headed elsewhere, with Case Keenum a likely consolation prize to a spurned Cousins suitor. The rest of the free-agent quarterback market, including AJ McCarron and Teddy Bridgewater, is intriguing but features more question marks than sure bets.

The Bills have long been considered candidates to trade up in April's draft to secure the services of one of the top quarterback prospects in Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. The Bills own extra picks in the first round and second round, which could give them an upper hand in trying to slide up the board.

Beane, however, isn't publicly entertaining that idea quite yet.

"I like the depth of the draft, especially early on in those rounds," he told the Bills' official radio program last week. "I'm excited to have five picks [in the first three rounds]. So I'm not going in, right now as I sit here, saying we got to move up or we got to move back.

"I'm excited at 21 and 22 because it showed we made the playoffs, and that was big for our city and our team and the culture that Sean and I are building. So I have no intent to move up or down. We're focused right now on who we think we could get at that value."

There is merit to the approach. The Bills had one of the NFL's older rosters last season, and they could turn the volume of their early-round picks into an impressive influx of youth. There are short-term and long-term needs at almost every position on the roster, some of which would be neglected if the Bills packaged their bounty of selections to move high in the first round to take a swing at a quarterback.

"I do like my picks," Beane said last week at the NFL combine in Indianapolis. "It's one of those things where if you're going to move up, especially in Round 1, it takes a lot. The higher you go, it exponentially increases. So you have to feel good about what you're doing. You can't just go up there, 'Hey, we need a quarterback. We're going to mortgage everything to go do it.'

"We have to feel good that we know this guy is the guy and is worth the ransom, or whatever you want to call it, that it would take to move wherever you have to move to get a guy that you think fits your long-term plan."

The Bills might not need to select near the top of the draft to find their long-term answer at quarterback. Among quarterbacks selected since 2007, there has not been much of a difference between the performance of those taken in the top five and those chosen in the remainder of the draft.

However, the Bills finding an eventual upgrade to Taylor would mean hitting on a late first-round pick (such as Baltimore's Joe Flacco) or a pick in a later round (such as Cincinnati's Andy Dalton, Dallas' Dak Prescott or Seattle's Russell Wilson).

At Nos. 21 and 22, the Bills' best -- and perhaps only logical -- options would be Louisville's Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph. Beyond the first few rounds, prospects such as Western Kentucky's Mike White or Richmond's Kyle Lauletta would enter the conversation.

Beane has not been shy to reveal how much focus he put at the combine on quarterbacks, and the chances of Buffalo drafting one in April remain high. Only now, it appears the odds are swinging in favor of adding a developmental quarterback alongside Peterman, instead of a blue-chip prospect who could supplant Taylor immediately. Similarly, it is apparent the Bills will be picky about any veteran quarterback they would acquire to replace Taylor.

Will not disturbing the status quo at quarterback be good enough for the Bills to contend in 2018? Maybe not. But would it make sense to shake things up and go for broke in the draft? Maybe not, either.

Welcome to quarterback purgatory.