When the 2024 FIDE Candidates began two weeks ago, the Indians weren't exactly seen as front-runners for the title. Five Indians qualifying for the toughest tournament in world chess was historic, but the idea of them winning the whole thing didn't seem likely. In fact, a stats-backed piece on Chess.com gave all three Indians a combined chance of 18.5%...while Caruana and Nakamura had a 36% and 25% chance of winning.
Fast forward to April 16 and with just four rounds of action left - it's an Indian [and the youngest player in the field] D Gukesh and two-time reigning champion Ian Nepomniachtchi who lead the Open category. Trailing the duo are the Americans, Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura, as well as R Praggnanandhaa. Just 0.5 points separate these three from the leaders, which tells you just how close this contest is.
The two Indian teenagers - Gukesh and Praggnanandhaa - have played some scintillating chess to get into such a strong position with the finish line on the horizon. Gukesh has lost just one in 10, while Praggnanandhaa has gone toe to toe with the best in the business. He even took a little nap in one of the games, prompting comparisons to a young Magnus Carlsen.
And then there's Vidit Gujrathi, the third Indian in the fray, in sixth spot with five points so far. Vidit is behind the two, but has posted two remarkable wins over one of the title favourites in Nakamura and still has a fighting chance. Something that seemed highly improbable a fortnight ago.
India's chances in the women's section aren't as promising as Koneru Humpy is ranked fifth and will have to hope against hope that the leading Chinese duo of Lei Tingjie and Zhongyi Tan slip up. R Vaishali's chances of making it to the top are all but over: she's at the bottom of the standings with just two wins in 10 games.
Focussing on the Open category, let's look at the possible outcomes and the chances of winning:
D Gukesh
Predicted score: 9 (Current score: 6)
Seventeen-year-old, youngest in the field, best Indian player at the 2024 FIDE Candidates. Has exceeded expectations throughout and remained a constant picture of calm in what is, undoubtedly, the biggest tournament of his career. Oh, and did we mention he's the third-youngest in the Candidates since the legends Bobby Fischer and Magnus Carlsen?
Gukesh began with a draw against Vidit and beat Praggnanandhaa before earning creditable draws against title favourites Caruana and Nepomniachtchi. He got going after beating Nijat Abasov in Round 5 and then held Nakamura to a solid draw to climb to the top of the standings. He had his only loss against Alireza Firouzja but has remained unbeaten since to be in prime position for the big W.
Gukesh will have the advantage when he plays White pieces against Caruana in Round 11, with the American having just one win in six games. Should Gukesh get past Caruana, his chances of solely topping the charts increase steeply as he should close in on a win against Nijat Abasov.
The game against Firouzja will be tricky, but considering Firouzja's recent troubles with the tournament organizers that made him say he may quit the sport, Gukesh might be in with a chance. His final contest is against Nakamura and a draw here will put him in good stead.
Round 11: Playing White pieces vs Fabiano Caruana
Round 12: Playing Black pieces vs Nijat Abasov
Round 13: Playing White pieces vs Alireza Firouzja
Round 14: Playing Black pieces vs Hikaru Nakamura
R Praggnanandhaa
Predicted score: 8 (Current score: 5.5)
Considering he is the highest-ranked Indian at 2747, the expectations from Praggnanandhaa were fairly high and he was expected to lead India's charge. He has lived up to it, almost. He's done well on his part to draw with each of the contenders and his only loss was against Gukesh in Round 2.
He has three tricky matches coming up against Nakamura [playing White, Black pieces against Nepomniachtchi and Caruana - each of them eager to scale the ladder. It's going to be a tough sequence, but this is where champions are made. And Praggnanandhaa, who was once the second-youngest GM in the world, has the mettle to see this through.
Round 11: Playing White pieces vs Hikaru Nakamura
Round 12: Playing Black pieces vs Ian Nepomniachtchi
Round 13: Playing White pieces vs Fabiano Caruana
Round 14: Playing Black pieces vs Alireza Firouzja
Vidit Gujrathi
Predicted score: 7.5 (Current score: 5)
Vidit is the oldest among the three men and also the lowest-rated Indian at 2727. A late bloomer in Indian chess, he qualified by winning the 2023 Grand Swiss.
Making his debut alongside two teenagers always meant the pressure was on him, but it fuelled him to a wonderful start as he stunned Nakamura in Round 2 [and again in Round 9!]. However, a couple of losses thereafter saw him lose steam before a win over Firouzja in Round 6 changed his fortunes.
Among his next four opponents, he has lost only to Nepomniachtchi. Should be able to reproduce the results from the first round of fixtures, Vidit could very well find himself in a promising position.
Round 11: Playing White pieces vs Ian Nepomniachtchi
Round 12: Playing Black pieces vs Fabiano Caruana
Round 13: Playing White pieces vs Nijat Abasov
Round 14: Playing Black pieces vs Alireza Firouzja
Though the Indian women's chances look tough, but here's how they could likely finish at the 2024 FIDE Candidates -
Koneru Humpy
Predicted score: 6 (Current score: 4.5)
Humpy is the only Indian among the five to have played at the Candidates before. The 37-year-old came into the tournament with a world ranking of #5 and an ELO rating of 2546 - the third-best in the field. However, she did not begin well as she had five draws and two losses before her first win, which came in Round 8 against Vaishali.
The veteran, who won the FIDE Women's rapid chess championship in 2019, has an uphill task ahead if she's to make it to the top. For starters, she will need to win all of her four matches to remain in contention. Even that may not be enough as co-leaders Tingjie and Zhongyi have two points ahead of her [6.5] and are expected to battle it out for the big prize. However, she may play a role in the title-winner as she faces Tingjie in her final match.
Round 11: Playing White pieces vs Nurgyul Salimova
Round 12: Playing Black pieces vs Aleksandra Goryachkina
Round 13: Playing White pieces vs Anna Muzychuk
Round14: Playing Black pieces vs Lei Tingjie
R Vaishali
Predicted score: 4.5 (Current score: 3.5)
Vaishali made it to the Candidates by winning the 2023 Women's Grand Swiss and in the process, also became India's third woman GM. She began well by drawing with Humpy and then beating Salimova in Round 3, but five losses on the trot saw her plummet to the bottom of the standings.
While she all but out of contention for a first-place finish, the next four matches will serve as great match practice against some of the best players in the business. Vaishali has nothing to lose now and that could ease the pressure off her as she bids to end her campaign on a positive note.
Round 11: Playing White pieces vs Aleksandra Goryachkina
Round 12: Playing Black pieces vs Anna Muzychuk
Round 13: Playing White pieces vs Lei Tingjie
Round14: Playing Black pieces vs Kateryna Lagno