As it pertains to national titles, the theme for 2023 has been "succession." Freshness. At the FBS level, on Monday night, either Michigan or Washington will win its first national title since the 1990s. At the smaller-school level, we got a run of first-timers: Harding, SUNY Cortland and Keiser University all won their first national titles at the Divisions II and III and NAIA levels.
If that theme holds in Sunday's FCS championship game in Frisco, Texas (ABC, 2 p.m. ET), then congratulations in advance to Bobby Hauck's Montana Grizzlies. Montana is one of the power programs of college football's second subdivision, a physical team with a passionate fanbase, but the Griz haven't won a ring since 2001. And they've got one of the best FCS teams ever standing in their way.
South Dakota State, the 2022 national champ, has won 28 straight games and took its first three playoff games by a combined score of 123-12. At worst, the Jackrabbits are as good as any of the North Dakota State teams that won titles in the 2010s. But they might top even the all-time FCS gold standard, 1995 Marshall. They are an absolute wrecking ball, and they are playing for history. Montana's task is a tall one.
How they got here
In 14 games, South Dakota State has suffered only two even remotely close calls: a 20-16 win over Montana State in Week 2 and a 17-10 win over Southern Illinois in Week 8. The Jacks have outscored 12 other opponents, including seven playoff teams, by an average of 42-9. The transition from legendary coach John Stiegelmeier, who retired after securing a long-sought title last year, to first-year leader and longtime former Stiegelmeier assistant Jimmy Rogers, has been remarkably seamless. (Having a roster with 34 seniors has helped.)
SDSU in the playoffs:
def. Mercer 41-0
def. Villanova 23-12
def. UAlbany 59-0
Montana got here with some dramatics and a midseason plot twist. After a frustrating 28-14 loss to Northern Arizona in Week 4, Hauck made a starting quarterback change, installing former Louisiana, Kilgore Community College and Central Arkansas signal-caller Clifton McDowell. After a wobbly win over Idaho State, the Grizzlies shifted into gear. They pummeled playoff teams Sacramento State (34-7) and Montana State (37-7) late in the regular seasons, and once in the playoffs, they dominated Delaware in the round of 16. Montana then won overtime thrillers over both Furman and North Dakota State.
Montana in the playoffs:
def. Delaware 49-19
def. Furman 35-28 (OT)
def. North Dakota State 31-29 (2OT)
SDSU is the favorite for a reason, but the longer this one stays close, the more it might favor the battle-tested Griz.
Royalty vs. nouveau riche
While many of FCS' onetime powers -- Marshall, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, James Madison -- have moved on to FBS through the years, Montana has been a second-subdivision stalwart. In the 15 years from 1995 to 2009, the Grizzlies reached the national title game seven times. They knocked off mighty Marshall on the road 22-20 to win their first title in 1995, they ground Furman into dust in a 13-6 rock fight in 2001, and they came achingly close to wins in 2000 (two-point loss to Georgia Southern), 2004 (led JMU in the third quarter) and 2009 too (two-point loss to Villanova).
They have been a mostly steady playoff presence since then, but between 2012 and 2022 they reached the quarterfinals only twice and never advanced further as the national balance of power clearly shifted a few hundred miles east: North Dakota State won nine of 11 titles from 2011 to 2021, with SDSU preparing to seize the mantle.
SDSU had to bide its time during NDSU's dynastic run -- the Jackrabbits fell to NDSU in the 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018 playoffs -- and when they finally reached the national title game during the spring 2021 season, quarterback Mark Gronowski got hurt early and the Jacks fell in the final seconds to Sam Houston.
Last winter, with Gronowski throwing for 223 yards and backs Amar Johnson and Isaiah Davis rushing for 229 yards, the Jacks demolished NDSU 45-21 in a cathartic title win. And with the form they've maintained through most of 2023, it's clear that they're thinking dynasty thoughts as well.
Montana is 8-0 all time against SDSU, but the Griz haven't yet played this SDSU.
Why is SDSU so good? (And what's Montana's upset script?)
Stiegelmeier, Rogers and company have built a powerhouse in Brookings through an incredible run of talent development. The Jacks don't deploy anything ridiculously creative on offense or defense -- they just rely on being bigger, more talented and more experienced than their opponent at just about every position. And despite the increasing allure of the transfer portal to any number of FCS stars, they've kept this roster virtually intact through the years.
Gronowski, a 6-foot-3, 225-pounder, has thrown for 7,415 career yards, with 1,334 rushing yards and 95 combined touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly, in 830 career passes, Gronowski has thrown just 12 interceptions. He plays mistake-free ball and lets the potential NFL-level talent around him shine. Both guard Mason McCormick and tackle Garret Greenfield are destined for the next level, and somehow the run game didn't miss a beat when current Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. left for the pros after 2021. Isaiah Davis has enjoyed back-to-back 1,400-yard seasons, while receivers Jadon and Jaxon Janke, four-year stars, have combined for 6,356 career receiving yards and 58 touchdowns. Towering tight end Zach Heins (6-7, 260 pounds) will have a shot at the next level, too.
SDSU ranks first in offensive SP+ ... and first in defensive SP+. The Jacks have the requisite tackling-machine linebackers in Jason Freeman (96 tackles, five TFLs, two interceptions, three fumble recoveries) and Adam Bock, they've got a solid pass-rusher in Cade Terveer (six sacks), and while the secondary allows a 65% completion rate, (A) those completions average only 8.9 yards, and (B) every time you pass you're risking disaster. Corners Dalys Beanum and DyShawn Gales have combined for six INTs and 10 breakups, and Tucker Large has added four and seven, respectively.
This is simply the deepest, most imposing team in FCS. How can Montana compete? Here are three keys:
1. Avoid three-and-outs. McDowell's been both a revelation and a fascinating contradiction this year. The 6-4 224-pounder has rushed for 751 yards and nine touchdowns this year, and his 118 yards were vital in the win over Furman. At first glance, he appears to be an all-or-nothing passer -- 57% completion rate, 13.5 yards per completion -- but he's also been ridiculously safe with the ball, throwing just three picks in 235 attempts. Against NDSU in the semis, he nibbled, averaging just 10 yards per completion with star receivers Junior Bergen and Keelan White caught nine balls for 99 yards.
The Griz weren't explosive, but they were controlled. They never went three-and-out, and they finished four drives in Bison territory, which allowed them to win the field position game by more than 5 yards per drive. The quick passing was vital, and it will be even more so against an SDSU defense that stonewalls run games but does allow short completions.
2. Get home on the blitz. Montana uses its linebackers as aggressively as anyone you'll see. Braxton Hill (116 tackles, 6.5 TFLs) is a tackling machine, but Levi Janacaro and Riley Wilson (combined: 105 tackles, 24 TFLs, 10.5 sacks, 9 hurries) are the stars on defense. The Griz fill every run gap, are terrific in pursuit and were decent in containing the vaunted NDSU run game. When the Bison were behind schedule, Montana feasted, sacking Cam Miller three times with three hurries.
Montana defines the game by forcing you to field wave after wave of blitzes and stunts, and coordinator Ronnie Bradford trusts a dynamite secondary -- corners Tevin Gradney and Corbin Walker (combined: seven picks, 15 breakups) and safeties Ryder Meyer and Nash Fouch (eight TFLs, 2 INTs, nine breakups) -- to pounce on any mistakes. This is high risk against an offense like SDSU's. It must be high reward, too.
3. Junior Damn Bergen. We've certainly learned a lot about the impact of special teams in this postseason. At the FBS level, Michigan almost blew its Rose Bowl semifinal against Alabama thanks to a cavalcade of special teams calamities, from muffed punts (plural) to missed field goals. And at the FCS level, we've seen Montana's Junior Bergen pull off two of the most clutch punt returns you'll ever see.
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT! 🤯@bergen_junior with ANOTHER HOUSE CALL!#GoGriz pic.twitter.com/JfoRrewf4p
— Montana Griz Football (@MontanaGrizFB) December 9, 2023
🤯 @bergen_junior DOES IT AGAIN!!#GoGriz pic.twitter.com/xoLDUyIzwi
— Montana Griz Football (@MontanaGrizFB) December 16, 2023
Bergen also returned a kickoff for a score against Furman and both scored a touchdown and threw a 2-point-conversion pass in overtime against NDSU. He's been one of the most dangerous players in FCS for a while, but he reached an entirely different plane of existence over the past two games. If he's the best player in the title game, Montana's got a shot.
The 10 best FCS champions (and where SDSU would fit)
Let's pause and look at what South Dakota State is chasing. I'm sure it will be more than satisfied with winning a second ring, whether it's via a one-point win or a 49-pointer, but with one more dominant performance, it could stake its claim as, at worst, one of the three best FCS teams in the subdivision's 45-year history.
1. 1996 Marshall Thundering Herd (15-0). With a redshirt freshman receiver by the name of Randy Moss leading the way, the Herd outscored opponents by 29.8 points per game and won four playoff games by an average of 48-14. Moss had nine catches for 220 yards and four scores against Montana in a 49-29 title game win. His final score gave Marshall a 46-6 lead early in the fourth quarter before the Griz made it respectable late.
(Any excuse to watch Randy Moss highlights is a good one. Sorry, Griz fans.)
2. 2018 North Dakota State Bison (15-0). If Marshall isn't the best ever, this particular NDSU team -- the last one led by current Kansas State coach Chris Klieman -- is. With Easton Stick at quarterback and the typically absurd offensive line, the Bison outscored opponents by an average of 28.9 points. Eastern Washington played out of its mind in the 2018 title game and still lost by 14.
Right now, the current SDSU team would slide in right here. The Jacks have outscored opponents by 28.6 points per game; I have FCS SP+ ratings going back to 2013, and SDSU currently grades out behind only 2018 NDSU. If they beat Montana by 25 or more, they'll match or exceed Marshall's playoff scoring margin, and they'll have a pretty good best ever claim.
3. 2013 North Dakota State Bison (15-0). The best team of NDSU's early run, this Bison team might have had the school's best-ever offensive line, which is saying something. They were merciless in the playoffs, outsourcing four opponents by a combined 173-42. Only Marshall can top that.
4. 2019 North Dakota State Bison (16-0). With Trey Lance throwing for 2,786 yards and rushing for 1,100, the Bison had a particular amount of offensive upside but had to survive a couple of close calls in the playoffs: a 9-3 slog against Illinois State and, thanks to a last-second goal-line stop, a 28-20 win over JMU in the finals.
5. 1989 Georgia Southern Eagles (15-0). Erk Russell's final Georgia Southern team leaned on defense early (the Eagles' first eight opponents averaged 8.5 points) and offense late (45.5 points per game over their final eight) to soar to a third national title in five years. They scored twice in the final six minutes of the title game to survive Stephen F. Austin 37-34.
6. 2017 North Dakota State Bison (14-1). Stick, linebacker Jabril Cox & Co. slipped up against SDSU in the regular season but still managed to outscore opponents by 27.1 points on average and won their first three playoff games by a combined 135-26 before surviving a 17-13 rock fight against defending champ JMU in the finals.
7. 1995 Montana Grizzlies (13-2). The Griz fell early to Washington State, but a midseason loss to Idaho was quite the wake-up call (hibernation call?). They won their next six games by an average of 51-13, then took down an incredible Marshall team in the title game.
8. 1981 Idaho State Bengals (12-1). The Throwin' Idahoans! Just two years after an 0-11 season, Dave Kragthorpe's Bengals rolled to the title behind a passing attack Division I-AA was not ready for. Their only loss came when quarterback Mike Machurek was out with mono -- his backup, future NFL coach Dirk Koetter nearly led ISU to a win over Montana in his absence -- but in 12 other games Machurek threw for 3,669 yards and 28 touchdowns. Not even mighty Eastern Kentucky, the power of the day, could contain ISU in a 34-23 title game.
9. 2003 Delaware Blue Hens (15-1). Led by coach K.C. Keeler, the Blue Hens were a ridiculously complete team. The offense scored at least 37 points nine times, and the defense held nine opponents -- including each of four playoff opponents -- to 14 or fewer. They staggered in November, with a loss to Northeastern and three tight wins, but they unleashed an all-time playoff run with wins of 48-7, 37-7, 24-9 and, against Colgate in the title game, 40-0.
10. 1999 Georgia Southern Eagles (13-2). Paul Johnson's best Eagles team lost a 48-41 track meet at Oregon State and fell by a single point at Appalachian State. In 13 wins, they were unreal, averaging 52.2 points and allowing 16.2. With Johnson's patented option attack, they rushed for 638 yards -- Eagles great Adrian Peterson had 247 yards -- in a 59-24 title game romp over Youngstown State.
Projections
ESPN BET: SDSU 31.0, Montana 18.5 (SDSU -12.5, 49.5-point over/under) | SP+: South Dakota State 33.6, Montana 14.7
You can use the transitive property to talk yourself into Montana having a shot -- in November, after all, the Grizzlies faced a Montana State that had hung well with SDSU in September and beat the Bobcats by 30. An upset is within the realm of possibility, especially if Bergen continues with his recent heroics.
SDSU really is at a different level, however. The Jackrabbits would be a borderline top-25 FBS team; I'm serious when I say that they would have quite possibly won the Big Ten West this year. They boast more potential pro talent than is conceivable for an FCS team.
As viewers, we win regardless -- either the Griz give us a great game and threaten a massive upset, or we get to witness SDSU's greatness one last time before 30-something seniors depart. Either way, this one's worth watching.