As was discussed last week, there's a flaw in conventional rankings allowing players to be drafted later than their true talent level dictates. These players are expected to miss large chunks of the season for various reasons including injury, beginning the season in the minors or matchup purposes.
Especially in leagues with daily moves, you can add extra stats to your roster when these players are inactive. Several hitters available at a discount were reviewed previously. Now it's time to focus on starting pitchers drafted later than their projections portend.
The following hurlers would all project to be top-100 overall players if they pitched 200 innings. Admittedly, it might be difficult to carry them on your roster when they're not a regular rotation fixture if you have limited reserve spots, so this might be a matter of tucking these names away as opposed to drafting them. However, when it's evident they'll be in the rotation for an extended stretch, it's worth figuring out a way to get them on your roster.
While things can quickly change, the current plan is for McHugh to return to the Astros' starting rotation after being one of the game's top relievers last season. Considering the 31-year old right-hander threw only 72 1/3 innings last season and 63 1/3 the previous year, the Astros will find ways to control McHugh's workload, hence the opportunity to supplement with other hurlers.
On average, a pitcher's baseline skills improve around 17 percent when they're converted from starting to the bullpen. While the exact effect on McHugh isn't clear, it's fair to expect a decline in skills from last season, especially his 33 percent strikeout rate which is 10 percent greater than that displayed as a starter in 2017. McHugh might not give it all back as he has also matured as a pitcher, but expecting a repeat of last season's 11.7 K/9 rate is obviously too optimistic.
As is usually the case, McHugh's velocity as a reliever increased a couple ticks and will likely fall back. However, the added mph could also be a result of better health, so he might not give back all the gain. In addition, while most former starters consolidate their arsenal as a reliever, McHugh continued to feature his four-pitch mix so he doesn't have to dust off an offering placed on the back-burner now that he'll be asked to go through the lineup more than once.
It has been recently reported McHugh is suffering from back discomfort. There's no indication how this affects the Astros' plans, but it's worth monitoring. In the event it turns out to be serious, Brad Peacock stands to benefit and would be a candidate for this strategy.
Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros
It's more than just talent propelling two Astros to the top of this list, as minute Maid Park is stealthily one of the game's best pitching venues and the Houston lineup profiles to provide generous run support. That said, Whitley is the top-ranked pitcher and fourth overall on Keith Law's 2019 top prospects. Most feel the question isn't if, but when Houston will hand Whitley a key to their rotation.
Houston is obviously looking to return to the World Series, so the Astros will carefully balance having Whitley be a stretch drive and postseason contributor with his long-term future. Due to a suspension and an oblique injury, Whitley totaled only 55 innings last season, which included minor league playoffs and the Arizona Fall League.
It's up in the air how the Astros intend to limit Whitley's workload. He could begin the season as a reliever in the majors then get stretched out or he can be start the season in the Triple-A Fresno rotation, especially since Whitley has yet to pitch above the Double-A level. Regardless, when it's obvious Whitley is in the Astros rotation, you want him in yours.
Ross Stripling, Los Angeles Dodgers
There was a significant stretch last summer when Stripling was the Dodgers' most effective starter and Clayton Kershaw was healthy at the time. Yet, at least to begin the 2019 campaign, Stripling appears to be on the outside looking in with respect to a rotation berth. However, with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, not to mention Kershaw ahead of him, there's a good chance Stripling will be in the mix with Julio Urias for a starting spot.
As opposed to most starters coming out of the bullpen, Stripling improved his peripherals. However, he benefited from a bloated 86 percent strand rate. On the other hand, his .322 batting average on balls in play was a bit unlucky, as was a 16 percent home run per fly ball mark. This is where the ERA estimators help, translating skills while accounting for regression. Stripling's 2.99 xFIP and 3.13 SIERA illustrate why he'd be a top-100 fantasy player if afforded a full season's worth of starts.
In deeper leagues, the 29-year-old right-hander is worthy of a roster spot regardless of role. Those in shallower formats should jump on the chance to add Stripling as soon as he's added to the Dodgers' rotation.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
It's a bit cliché, but in this case, it's apropos: Ryu pitches very well between injury stints. The 31-year old southpaw boasts a career 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP but hasn't tallied 30 starts since his freshman year in 2013. Last season, Ryu started 15 contests, missing half the season with a groin injury. In 2017, Ryu worked in 24 contests, spending time on the then-disabled list with hip and foot woes. However, Ryu missed all of 2015 and made just one appearance the following season with elbow and shoulder issues, both requiring surgeries.
The good news is Ryu hasn't incurred any arm injuries the past couple of seasons. Still, there's residual risk along with the likelihood the Dodgers creatively find ways to keep Ryu healthy, availing an opportunity to acquire Ryu at a discount and backfill when he's unavailable.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox
One of the benefits of accepting an injury discount is if the player avoids health issues, the replacement for the lost time is the player himself. That's the hope with Rodriguez, as last summer, the southpaw had surgery to take care of the recurring left knee woes plaguing him for the last couple of seasons. To be fair, Rodriguez has had other ailments, but none are arm-related, so there's plausible reason for optimism.
It's more narrative than numbers-based, but there's optimism surrounding Rodriguez in Red Sox camp, as he has enjoyed a healthy offseason for the first time in a while. That, combined with having a pair of experienced fellow left-handers in Chris Sale and David Price for tutelage and guidance have Rodriguez primed for the long-awaited breakout season.
Logan Allen and Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres
Allen, along with early Grapefruit League standout Paddack are two of the reasons the Padres committed substantial resources to sign Manny Machado. Paddack is the current talk of camp and has a higher ceiling than Allen, though that might also lead to Paddack's workload being tempered more, especially since he recently returned from Tommy John surgery.
The Padres reportedly considering breaking camp with Paddack in their rotation, but their recent history is to be more conservative with their top prospects and more aggressive with the next tier, like Allen. Accelerating Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer last season are examples of the Padres fast-tracking good but not top-of-the-rotation arms. While everyone in your league is chasing the shiny new toy in Paddack, don't sleep on Allen, as he might not be brought along as cautiously as Paddack, a potential ace.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
In 2018, there were just 32 pitchers tossing at least 180 innings. Checking in at the 32nd spot with exactly that number is Heaney. Yet, since he made only one start in 2016 then five in 2017 due to assorted arm woes, most are reticent to consider Heaney in the workhorse class. As such, like Rodriguez above, we could be looking at a discounted pitcher serving as his own playing-time proxy.
Heaney's 24.0 percent strikeout rate and 6.0 percent walk rate last season were both well better than league average. There was nothing fluky either, as those stellar numbers are supported by a healthy 65 percent first-pitch strike mark and an 11.8 percent swinging-strike rate.
Further aiding Heaney is playing in Angel Stadium, one of the better pitching venues in the league. Plus, especially with Zack Cozart back, Heaney will be graced with solid infield and outfield defense.
Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics
Luzardo shares traits with a few other young arms on this list. Like Whitley, he's one of the game's top pitching prospects, ranking No. 31 among Keith Law's 2019 top prospects. Similar to Paddack, he has undergone Tommy John surgery. Distinguishing Luzardo from the others is he has the potential to be a front-end contributor to a team with playoff aspirations this season. Obviously, the Astros do as well, but with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and even McHugh in tow, Whitley is more of a luxury item than necessity.
With the Athletics barely sneaking into the playoffs last season, they don't have the breathing room of a team like Houston, as a win or two could cost Oakland a return trip to the postseason. This isn't to say Luzardo will throw 200 innings, not even close. However, he has the best chance of all the rookies (Whitley, Allen and Paddack) to break camp with the big club or receive an early promotion.
Trevor Cahill, Los Angeles Angels
The Giants' Derek Holland is in a similar situation, as both injury-prone veterans showed improved skills last season, toiling in favorable pitching venues. While they have top-100 skills if prorated for a full season, the duo barely makes it, so they're really not viable candidates in standard 10-team ESPN leagues but are in play for deeper formats. Expect each to be a frequent visitor to the in-season Daily Notes column, where players available in over half of all ESPN leagues are highlighted on slates in which they have a favorable matchup.