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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games

          Eury Perez has helped pitch the Miami Marlins into playoff contention and himself into Rookie of the Year consideration. He faces the Pirates at home on Sunday. Steph Chambers/Getty Images
          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jun 25, 2023, 02:10 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

          By Todd Zola

          • The Sunday slate gets started extra early with the finale of the London Series beginning at 10 AM ET. The opener went to the Chicago Cubs as they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 9-1. The Cubs hitters did their part, but the total fell well short of the 13.5 over/under run line. The venue is likely as hitter friendly as most speculated, but the adage, "Good pitching beats good hitting" remains true, even across the pond. Cubs starter Justin Steele was sharp, relying more on his four-seam fastball than usual. One of the takeaways from the 2019 London Series was the venue was built to reduce wind resistance for Olympic track and field, which means no external forces to help on the movement of off speed and breaking pitches. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright did not adjust as he threw his usual complement of cutters, sliders and curves, resulting in seven earned runs in three frames. It will be interesting to see whether Cubs starter Marcus Stroman makes an adjustment as he throws a sinker almost half the time, followed by a slurve, splitter and finally four-seamer. He'll seemingly need to alter his pitch mix to avoid the same fate as Wainwright.

          • Eury Perez (52.0% rostered) is pitching like he doesn't want to ride a bus to a minor league game ever again. We'll see what happens when Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers return, but for now Perez remains entrenched in the Miami Marlins rotation. The exciting rookie has a favorable home date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even with the addition of Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales to the Pirates lineup, Perez will face a group with a below average wOBA versus right-handers. The 20-year-old freshman has fanned 45 in 41 innings, while yielding just four homers. Perez will be opposed by Johan Oviedo (11.4%). The Pirates right-hander has been inconsistent, but he's been solid in four June starts with a 3.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, fanning 21 in 23 2/3 frames. The Marlins remain in the wild card hunt because of their pitching. Miami's offense is below average with a righty on the hill. Perez is the preferred option, but Oviedo is in play for those needing to make up ground on the final day of the fantasy week.

          • Bailey Ober (37.8%) is in a great spot to help fantasy teams on Sunday with a road date in the Motor City. Please note this game has been moved up to 12:10 p.m. ET in an effort to get it in before heavy rains surround Comerica Park. The Minnesota Twins righty has posted two straight quality starts and three in his past four outings. His only fault is yielding a pair of homers in each of his last two efforts. However, the Detroit Tigers sport the third lowest home run rate in the league. They fan at an above-average pace while Ober has a palatable 58 punchouts in 62 2/3 stanzas.

          • Ober's mound foe will be Michael Lorenzen (7.8%). Lorenzen isn't especially dominant with 54 strikeouts in 72 innings, but he's coming off a seven-strikeout outing in a six-inning effort against the Kansas City Royals. Lorenzen typically fans more hitters against teams with high strikeout rates (as do most hurlers) so he's in a good spot against a Twins team fanning at the highest clip in MLB.

          • Chicago Cubs right-handed hitters are in a great spot with southpaw Matthew Liberatore on the hill in the finale of the London Series. Switch-hitting Ian Happ (53.7%) had a multiple homer game Saturday. Seiya Suzuki (48.4%) and Christopher Morel (40.6%) will also enjoy the platoon edge.

          • The Boston Red Sox offer a pair of hitters with a strong chance of swiping a bag or two. Jarren Duran (5.8%) and David Hamilton (.6%) match up against a Chicago White Sox defense allowing the second most steals in the league.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Bullpen usage watch for Sunday

          By Todd Zola

          • David Bednar was tasked with preserving a 3-3 tie after the Pittsburgh Pirates scored the tying run against the Miami Marlins in the top of the ninth. Bednar threw two scoreless frames, but it went for naught after Miami walked it off in the bottom of the 11th. Bednar threw 29 pitches, leaving him with 49 over the past three days. Even with an impending off day on Monday, Bednar will likely be unavailable for Sunday's series finale in Miami. The Pirates' bullpen is already thin, and not especially reliable, so it's best to look elsewhere for relief help on this all-important final day of the fantasy week.

          • As suggested yesterday, even with a heavy recent workload, Camilo Doval would probably still be available if needed on Saturday. Sure enough, Gabe Kapler called Doval's number, and Doval responded with his 22nd save. However, he needed 23 pitches, bringing his count to 34 over the past two days and 51 over the past four. The San Francisco Giants also have an off day tomorrow, but Doval will almost assuredly not work on three straight days. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers have also pitched a lot, but they should be able to appear Sunday in the series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

          • Raisel Iglesias entered the ninth on Saturday with a three-run lead, and it's a good thing since the Atlanta Braves closer surrendered a pair of solo shots to the Cincinnati Reds, escaping with his 11th save. Iglesias has accumulated 32 pitches over the past three days, putting Sunday's availability in jeopardy. A.J. Minter and Nick Anderson are well rested and available if needed for the rubber game between the two first-place clubs. Both have proved capable in late-inning scenarios.

          • A day after corralling his 16th save, Kenley Jansen was brought into 4-4 game after the Boston Red Sox tied the Chicago White Sox in the top of the ninth. Jansen retired the first two hitters, but the White Sox pushed across the game-winner on an Elvis Andrus' single. There is no precedent for Jansen pitching on three consecutive days, but he needed only 23 pitches in the first two, and the club isn't on the Monday schedule. Chris Martin did not pitch yesterday, so he's a solid pickup for a chance at a hold, or maybe even a Sunday save.

          • Emmanuel Clase recorded his 23rd save on Saturday, using 17 pitches in the process. He was working on two days of rest, and the Cleveland Guardians don't play tomorrow, so manager Terry Francona won't hesitate to put Clase in session again today.

          • Jordan Romano has not pitched on three straight days yet this season, but it's not out of the question today. The Toronto Blue Jays closer rebounded from being tagged with a loss on Friday by collecting his 23rd save yesterday. He only needed to record one out, which he did with just five pitches. With only 17 pitches in back-to-back affairs, Romano is probably in play today, especially with the Blue Jays resting on Monday.

          • Felix Bautista was charged with his fifth blown save last night after allowing the Seattle Mariners to draw even with the Baltimore Orioles in the ninth inning. The Orioles scored a pair in the 10th to win 6-4, but Bautista burned 16 pitches. However, since he was working on three days of rest, Bautista will be ready for retribution if the scenario warrants today. That said, it is never a bad idea to pick up Yennier Cano for a chance at a hold, not to mention Baltimore is only one of a dozen teams in action on Monday.

          • Paul Sewald worked a scoreless ninth against the Orioles yesterday, sending the game into extras. The Mariners closer was working with a full week's rest, and accrued only 15 pitches, so he'll be good to go today.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

          Prop of the Day

          Hunter Brown, Astros, pitching outs prop set at 17.5 (-125/-104)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT sees Brown putting up 15.3 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 31.3% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $36.11.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The weather report predicts the fifth-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

          • Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.9% GB% according to THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium -- the No. 5 HR venue in the league -- in today's game.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The Los Angeles Dodgers' projected offense projects as the third strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

          • The Dodgers have been the eighth-unluckiest offense in the league this season, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to positively regress going forward.

          • Dodger Stadium profiles as the No. 5 ballpark in the game for home runs, via THE BAT projection system.

          • The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10 mph in this matchup, the second-most-favorable of the day for bats.