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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for the Fourth of July

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Jul 4, 2023, 02:30 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • Tuesday is a great day for streaming multiple pitchers, if you have the roster room to do it. Four of the top five pitchers on the slate are all under 20% rostered in ESPN leagues and all project above the likes Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove and Shane Bieber, which should tell you something about how well they project. That list starts with J.P. France (11% rostered), who gets to face a terrible (and often strikeout-heavy) Rockies lineup away from Coors Field. Emmet Sheehan (20%) gets a below-average Pirates squad at home and has some of the best pitching weather of the day.

          • Tarik Skubal (9%) is working back from injury and will be limited to around 90 pitches, but that should be plenty in a matchup against the lowly A's. Kenta Maeda (5%) is also recently recovered from injury but should be capable of throwing close to 100 pitches, and he gets a great matchup himself against the Royals.

          • If you have Bieber (100%) or Lucas Giolito (91%) on your squad, you should think long and hard about actually starting them Tuesday. Bieber faces the Braves and Giolito gets Toronto, both among the best offenses in baseball. THE BAT X projects them for a 4.90 and 5.38 ERA, respectively, so even though they have the name value, in these matchups they're pretty useless in fantasy.

          • Among THE BAT X's top projected offenses of the day are the usual suspects like the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers and Jays, but the Twins and Tigers are also very much in the mix, especially if you're hunting for home runs. The Twins face contact-heavy Zack Greinke and the Tigers get flyball-heavy JP Sears. Somehow Byron Buxton is rostered on just 56% of teams, so if he's available, go pick him up for keeps. In terms of streaming, Max Kepler (2%), Alex Kirilloff (3%), Jose Miranda (36%), Joey Gallo (5%) and Edouard Julien (1%) are strong options for Minnesota, while Spencer Torkelson (9%), Matt Vierling (1%), Javier Baez (14%), Andy Ibanez (1%) and Jake Rogers (0%) are good from Detroit.

          • If you're looking for speed, those same Tigers are in a great matchup. But perhaps the best and most accessible speedsters of the day will come from Cincinnati. The Reds face one of the game's weakest starting pitchers in Patrick Corbin, and it's a terrific matchup for steals. Elly De La Cruz (87%) is likely gone in your league, but keep an eye on his stolen base prop in the betting market. Matt McLain (31%), Jake Fraley (30%), TJ Friedl (20%), Kevin Newman (1%) and Nick Senzel (2%) will likely be good options in both fantasy and betting in this spot.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen update for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • The Seattle Mariners went to the well for a third straight day, but it did not pay off as Paul Sewald allowed three runs to the San Francisco Giants. The 51 pitches he's accumulated since Saturday will give him a day, perhaps two on the sidelines. Andres Munoz would normally be the target, but he pitched two days in a row, leaving Matt Brash as the likely fill-in, though Munoz should be in play tomorrow.

          • Alexis Diaz has appeared each of the past two days, throwing 37 total pitches. His availability is very much in question, with Buck Farmer and Luca Sime the likely substitutes.

          • Camilo Doval was just getting some work since he hadn't pitched since last Friday, and as is often the case with closers appearing in non-save scenarios, Doval was hit hard, allowing four runs on 25 tosses. Even so, manager Gable Kapler will probably give Doval a chance to rebound if the situation presents itself.

          • Yesterday, Devin Williams garnered a save for the second straight day, giving him 18 on the season. Pitching in back-to-back fashion likely precluded him from pitching on Tuesday. Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero are the best candidates to fill in.

          • Count Raisel Iglesias as another closer to have pitched on both Sunday and Monday. Iglesias used a rather efficient 11 tosses each time, so there's a chance for a threepeat. A.J. Minter has also appeared the last two days, leaving Nick Anderson as the best hedge.

          • Continuing a theme, Ryan Pressly took the hill for a second straight day on Monday, so his availability is in jeopardy. He only threw a combined 20 pitches, so it's not a foregone conclusion he'll take Tuesday off, especially since Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris have also appeared on consecutive days, and both compiled more pitches than Pressly.

          • Josh Hader, on the other hand, last pitched on Friday before throwing 19 pitches in a non-save situation yesterday. He'll be fine if needed.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

          Prop of the Day

          JP Sears 17.5 pitching outs (-135/+105)

          PREDICTION

          THE BAT sees Sears putting up 14.9 Pitching Outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 27.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the under with an expected value of $47.72.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • The Detroit Tigers projected offense projects as the second weakest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

          • Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the No. 22 HR venue among all major league parks.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • It may be best to expect positive regression for the Tigers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as them as the seventh-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

          • Comerica Park projects as the No. 3 venue in the game for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

          • High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the third-hottest temperature of all games on Tuesday's slate at 86°.

          • Due to his huge platoon split, Sears meets a tough challenge being matched up with nine hitters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in Tuesday's game.