Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 15, 2023, 04:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

By Derek Carty

With the season 75% over, there isn't much time to make up ground in the standings. If you're still hunting for pitching volume, Tuesday's slate offers a great opportunity to stream multiple pitchers. The third-best pitcher of the day, according to THE BAT X, is David Peterson (3% rostered). His 5.61 ERA may be scary to roster, but his 9.7 K/9 and 3.60 xFIP show that he's simply been unlucky. Since being recalled from the minors at the end of June, his ERA is much improved at 2.40 with great peripherals. Although most of that work has come in relief, he's done well in two starts since joining the rotation after the trade deadline. He's been building up his slowly (just 52 and 62 pitches in those starts), but the matchup against Pittsburgh is a strong one and he's available in nearly every league.
James Paxton (41%), Yusei Kikuchi (44%), and Bailey Ober (45%) all are worth streaming as well. Paxton faces the Nationals and Ober gets the Tigers, marking especially promising matchups. Dakota Hudson (1%), however, is another guy like Peterson that is almost universally available and is in a fantastic matchup, facing the weak A's offense with some of the better pitching weather of the day.
If you're streaming hitters on Tuesday, the Diamondbacks have to be your first stop. They go into 86-degree Coors Field to face Ty Blach, the worst pitcher in the majors according to THE BAT X. They project a full run above the next best offense (the Rockies on the other side of this game) and 1.5 runs above the best non-Coors offense.
Tommy Pham (3% rostered) is the seventh-best hitter on the entire slate, sandwiched between Rafael Devers and Aaron Judge, whose names you may have heard called in the first or second round of your drafts this year. He's been nothing short of great in his part-time action this season, and now that he's found full-time at-bats in the middle of Arizona's lineup, it's shocking he's been picked up in as few leagues as he has been. Make sure you get him today and keep him for the whole Coors series at the very least. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (54%), Jake McCarthy (17%), Gabriel Moreno (5%), Buddy Kennedy (sub-1%), and Nick Ahmed (sub-1%) are also excellent choices from the Dbacks.
The top team to target for stolen bases today is the Miami Marlins. They face a talented pitcher in Cristian Javier, but he's been a complete mess since the beginning of June: 7.54 ERA and 6.45 xFIP. He's also the easiest pitcher on the slate to steal against, and the Marlins aren't afraid to run. Jazz Chisholm (72%) has the highest chance of anybody on the slate. If he's rostered in your league, take a look at his stolen base props to potentially get some action. Jon Berti (4%) and Joey Wendle (1%) also have strong chances of swiping a bag if they are in the lineup.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.6	Zack Wheeler	R	@TOR	99.3%	-110	8	57%	6.1	2.4	6.6
13.4	Cristian Javier	R	@MIA	91.2%	-130	9	57%	5.7	1.9	6.2
10.6	Bailey Falter	L	@NYM	0.5%	118	8.5	54%	5.1	1.8	4.2
10.5	Bobby Miller	R	MIL	34.4%	-220	9	56%	5.3	2.2	5.1
9.9	Johnny Cueto	R	HOU	2.0%	110	9	43%	5.8	2.5	4.7
9.7	Logan Allen	L	@CIN	12.0%	-105	9.5	53%	5.6	2.8	5.8
9.5	David Peterson	L	PIT	3.3%	-140	8.5	46%	5.0	2.1	5.4
9.4	Bailey Ober	R	DET	47.4%	-190	8.5	50%	5.3	2.7	5.3
9.2	Emerson Hancock	R	@KC	8.0%	-155	9.5	64%	5.0	2.2	4.2
9.1	Bryce Elder	R	NYY	68.0%	-210	10.5	52%	5.5	2.6	5.1
9.0	Michael Wacha	R	BAL	50.9%	-140	8.5	54%	4.7	1.9	4.4
9.0	Touki Toussaint	R	@CHC	0.8%	150	8.5	50%	5.1	2.3	5.1
8.5	Jack Flaherty	R	@SD	29.3%	118	8.5	46%	5.3	2.6	5.5
8.1	Kyle Hendricks	R	CWS	11.0%	-178	8.5	50%	5.5	2.8	4.2
8.1	Yusei Kikuchi	L	PHI	50.1%	-110	8	43%	5.0	2.6	4.9
7.9	Nick Pivetta	R	@WSH	26.6%	-170	9	55%	5.4	3.2	5.4
7.7	Jordan Montgomery	L	LAA	80.9%	-170	8.5	54%	5.4	3.3	5.2
7.6	Adrian Houser	R	@LAD	2.1%	180	9	44%	5.3	2.5	4.3
7.4	Graham Ashcraft	R	CLE	26.1%	-115	9.5	47%	5.3	2.8	4.6
7.4	Dakota Hudson	R	OAK	3.1%	--	--	55%	5.1	2.4	3.7
7.1	Luis Severino	R	@ATL	37.6%	175	10.5	48%	5.2	3.1	5.1
6.7	Josiah Gray	R	BOS	14.2%	143	9	45%	5.4	3.3	5.1
6.6	Jordan Lyles	R	SEA	1.2%	130	9.5	36%	5.6	3.4	4.8
6.4	Alex Faedo	R	@MIN	0.6%	158	8.5	50%	4.7	2.7	4.5
6.2	Jakob Junis	R	TB	0.2%	-105	8.5	50%	4.6	2.6	4.4
6.2	Zack Littell	R	@SF	3.8%	-115	8.5	50%	4.1	2.0	3.8
5.8	Lucas Giolito	R	@TEX	86.3%	143	8.5	46%	5.2	3.8	5.7
5.3	Spenser Watkins	R	@STL	0.0%	--	--	45%	4.6	2.5	3.3
4.5	Joe Mantiply	L	@COL	0.1%	-130	12	46%	4.8	3.8	4.9
3.2	Ty Blach	L	ARI	0.2%	110	12	54%	5.1	3.9	3.5

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

Felix Bautista has been appearing on an every other day basis since August 6. After a 21-pitch save last night, the pattern is likely to continue. Bautista was brought in with the Baltimore Orioles leading the San Diego Padres 4-1. That's how it ended, but not before Manny Machado was the tying run at the plate. Bautista tossed 28 pitches on Saturday, so the combined 49 likely has him on the bullpen bench tonight. Yennier Cano didn't appear yesterday, so he's ready to step in if needed. He already has four saves, along with 27 holds.
David Robertson locked down the Miami Marlins 5-1 win over the Houston Astros. It wasn't a save situation after the Marlins tallied three times in the bottom of the eighth. Since Robertson had already begun to warm up, and he hadn't appeared since the previous Wednesday, it made sense for Skip Schumaker to bring in Robertson and secure Game 1 of a series with the defending World Series champions. Robertson only hurled 14 pitches, so he'll be fine if needed in Game 2.
There are only six games on Thursday, so while the primary focus is on today's slate, there are a couple of bullpens with available closers in a favorable spot for the next three days. Topping the list is the Seattle Mariners for the last three games of their four-game set with the Kansas City Royals. WIth Andres Munoz (48.2% rostered) unavailable last night, the Royals staged a ninth-inning comeback against Matt Brash to take the opener. Munoz should be available tonight, and even though he struggled yesterday, Brash has been solid in the setup role with 17 holds and a pair of saves. Justin Topa and his 17 holds are also in the late game mix.
The Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game set at home against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. It remains odd that the team with the third best record in MLB doesn't have a set closer, but Evan Phillips (26.6%) and Brusday Graterol (4.1%) continue to share ninth-inning duties, though Phillips garners the majority of the chances. Still, with holds incorporated in ESPN scoring, Graterol has been useful with 15 holds to go along with five saves and four wins.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	8/14	P3	Rest	Strk
Felix Bautista	BAL	97.7%	21	49	0	1
David Robertson	MIA	55.5%	14	14	0	1

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Tommy Pham (ARI, LF -- 4%) at Ty Blach
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 14%) vs. Slade Cecconi
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 10%) vs. Slade Cecconi
Kyle Lewis (ARI, DH -- 0%) at Ty Blach
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 39%) vs. Slade Cecconi
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 10%) vs. Slade Cecconi
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 29%) vs. Slade Cecconi
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF -- 40%) vs. Spenser Watkins
Tyler O'Neill (STL, LF -- 18%) vs. Spenser Watkins
Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 5%) at Ty Blach

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B -- 80%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 54%) at Sean Manaea
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 76%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B -- 67%) vs. Zack Wheeler
George Springer (TOR, CF -- 95%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS -- 75%) vs. Jack Flaherty
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 56%) at Jordan Montgomery
C.J. Cron (LAA, 1B -- 52%) at Jordan Montgomery
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 66%) vs. Bailey Falter
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 90%) vs. Logan Allen

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Prop of the Day

David Peterson O/U 1.5 earned runs (-115/-115)

PROJECTION

THE BAT sees Peterson putting up 2.63 earned runs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.7% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.11.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
Citi Field ranks as the No. 2 field in the league for walks, per THE BAT.
This game is forecasted to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
With eight hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, David Peterson will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The fifth-weakest projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Given the 1.01 disparity between David Peterson's 5.61 ERA and his 4.60 estimated true talent ERA per THE BAT, he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and should perform better going forward.