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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

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          Mets lefty Joey Lucchesi has pitched well over his seven starts and (0:41)

          Mets lefty Joey Lucchesi has pitched well over his seven starts and makes for a realistic streamer against the Marlins. Video by Eric Karabell (0:41)

          • ESPN Fantasy
          Sep 19, 2023, 05:59 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

          By Derek Carty

          • The top pitching streamer on Tuesday's slate is Ryan Pepiot (28% rostered in ESPN leagues). THE BAT X projects Pepiot as the fifth-best option overall on this slate. His low roster percentage can be attributed more to circumstances than talent, as the Los Angeles Dodgers have always had a deep rotation. With injuries and off-the-field issues now piling up, Pepiot has finally gotten a consistent slot and has made the most of it, posting a 2.00 ERA and a 3.92 xFIP across five appearances (three starts) in the bigs this year. He gets a terrific matchup against a weak and strikeout-prone Detroit Tigers offense and is worth streaming if he's available in your league.

          • If Pepiot is not available (or you want a second option), take a look at Taj Bradley (9%) of the Tampa Bay Rays. It's been a bumpy rookie campaign for Bradley, but the stuff and talent are there. Plus, the 3.75 xFIP portends much better things in store than his 5.56 ERA does. Squaring off against an emaciated Los Angeles Angels lineup at home in Tropicana, matchups don't get a lot better than this.

          • In fact, if you're looking to polish your ratios, you can look into streaming Rays relievers in this matchup as well. Closer Pete Fairbanks is just 42% rostered, while Colin Poche (4%), Shawn Armstrong (2%), and Robert Stephenson (4%) are all strong choices if Fairbanks is gone. Seattle Mariners relievers fit the bill today as well, also going into an elite pitchers' park to face a hapless Oakland Athletics offense. Closer Andres Munoz (48%) is the top choice, followed by Matt Brash (10%) Isaiah Campbell (sub-1%), and Gabe Speier (sub-1%).

          • The Minnesota Twins project as both the top offense for both runs and for homers on Tuesday's slate. They go into the elite Great American Ball Park to face off against Ben Lively. Max Kepler (8%), Jorge Polanco (48%), Royce Lewis (48%), Carlos Correa (70%), Edouard Julien (4%), Alex Kirilloff (3%), Willi Castro (6%), Matt Wallner (1%), and Christian Vazquez (2%) are all worth considering in your leagues.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Ryan Helsley has pitched 8 1/3 innings scoreless innings since returning to the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen on September 1. He's recorded a save in each of his last five appearances, including both Sunday and Monday. After throwing 18 pitches on consecutive days, Helsley will likely be unavailable for Tuesday. Drew VerHagen and Andre Pallante are both well rested, thus are the likeliest options to handle late-inning duties.

          • Ryan Pressly was asked to lock down a 7-5 lead, but the Houston Astros closer surrendered three runs to the Baltimore Orioles and the Astros could not respond in the bottom of the frame, saddling Pressly with his sixth blown save and fifth loss. Pressly used 31 pitches, so even though he was appearing on four days of rest, his availability for tonight is in jeopardy. Bryan Abreu is next in line, but he's also questionable after being hit in the arm with a line drive on Sunday. Kendall Graveman is also in play.

          Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

          Prop of the Day

          Hunter Brown, Astros, 14.5 pitching outs (-162/+125)

          PROJECTION

          THE BAT X sees Brown putting up 17.7 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 81.2% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $50.80.

          Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

          • It may be best to expect worse results for the Orioles offense in the future, given that THE BAT X views them as the ninth-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

          • Phil Cuzzi -- a huge pitcher's umpire -- is scheduled to call pitches in today's game.

          • The No. 10 park in the league for suppressing home runs, according to THE BAT X, is Minute Maid Park.

          • Brown has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing eight opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.

          FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

          • The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.

          • This contest is projected to have the 11th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all of today's scheduled games.