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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

          Shota Imanaga's hot start has him climbing up the Rookie of the Years ranks. Chris Coduto/Getty Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasyMay 13, 2024, 03:11 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          What are the odds?

          That didn't take long. With just 25% of the season in the books, there is already a huge shift in the betting odds for National League Rookie of the Year. Heading into the season, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto was the overwhelming choice. Just six weeks later, his countryman Shota Imanaga has taken over as the betting favorite. Given that the odds are set in part to generate the most action, Imanaga's ascent and overtaking of Yamamoto is remarkable.

          The current NL Rookie of the Year odds on ESPN BET are Imanaga +175 and Yamamoto +375. Imanaga (+700) has the third-highest odds for NL Cy Young and Yamamoto checks in seventh (+1300).

          Turning the discussion to fantasy baseball, who do you prefer for the rest of the season, Imanaga or Yamamoto? Yamamoto has made one more start than Imanaga, but they've logged nearly the same number of innings with Yamamoto at 42 and Imanaga at 41 2/3. Yamamoto's ERA is 2.79, supported with a 2.94 xFIP and 2.98 SIERA. Imanaga's ERA is 1.08, but with a 3.28 xFIP and 3.08 SIERA. It's close, but Yamamoto's ERA estimators are a smidge better.

          Imanaga has benefited from a .239 BABIP and 90.6% left on base mark. Meanwhile, Yamamoto has also been a bit fortunate with a .269 BABIP and 80.6% left on base. Yamamoto has recorded a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 4.7% walk rate, for a 23.1% K-BB%. Imanaga's strikeout rate is 26.9% with a 3.1% walk rate, resulting in a 23.8% K-BB%. To date, Imanaga has the slight edge. However, he'll be hard-pressed to maintain such a low walk rate.

          Heading into the season, home runs were a big concern for Imanaga. So far, he's yielded only three long balls, compared to five for Yamamoto. This accounts for some of the discrepancies in actual ERA.

          Both hurlers are benefiting from the league being unfamiliar with them as they traverse lineups for the first time. Imanaga has stated it's too early to credit his success; the real test will come when teams face him for a second and third time.

          The Cubs worked with Imanaga in the spring. They set up an apparatus to train him to throw more four-seamers up in the zone. So far, the results are positive, though the dead ball is helping matters. Not to mention, Wrigley Field plays bigger in the spring with cooler temperatures. It tends to shrink over the summer when the mercury rises and the wind blows towards the ivy.

          While my expectations for Imanaga have improved from draft season, I still expect Yamamoto to post the superior season. To be honest, I'm a bit shocked at the odds paradigm.

          Both hurlers are in action on Monday, with Yamamoto on the road against the San Francisco Giants and Imanaga with his biggest challenge so far with a date in Truist Park against the Atlanta Braves. Imanaga is ranked in the lower half of the Starting pitcher rankings. This indicates Imanaga is a risky start. I'm generally aggressive, and Atlanta hasn't faced Imanaga yet, so my lean is having him active. That said, with Monday being just the first day of the head-to-head scoring period, playing it safe is a defensible approach.

          Fantasy managers have almost all day to ponder lineups with all 14 games played under the lights, beginning at 6:35 p.m. ET with the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Baltimore Orioles.

          What you may have missed on Sunday

          • Jung Hoo Lee has been diagnosed with a left shoulder strain after crashing into the outfield wall in the first inning of yesterday's 6-5 extra-inning win by the San Francisco Giants over the Cincinnati Reds. Lee was replaced by Tyler Fitzgerald, who along with Luis Matos could see more action if Lee is out for an extended period.

          • Giants C Patrick Bailey was scratched due to a viral illness with Blake Sabol taking over behind the plate. The club was already down a man with Michael Conforto having been placed on the IL prior to the game. The Reds also played shorthanded when OF TJ Friedl was hit on the hand by a pitch in the first inning. He left the contest early and is considered day-to-day.

          • Shohei Ohtani was held out of yesterday's series finale in Petco Park as the Los Angeles Dodgers dropped the rubber game of a weekend set to the San Diego Padres. Ohtani's back tightened up on Saturday, so manager Dave Roberts elected to give him the day off, with the expectation he'll return to the lineup tonight as the Dodgers begin a three-game road series with the Giants.

          • Miami Marlins SS Tim Anderson missed his second straight game due to back tightness. Vidal Brujan moved over to shortstop with Otto Lopez covering the keystone. Anderson's availability for tonight's road date with the Detroit Tigers is unclear.

          • Catchers often sit on Sunday, so it's relevant to note that J.T. Realmuto missed yesterday's game due to a sore knee. Philadelphia Phillies skipper Rob Thomson had intended to play Realmuto, but ended up letting his backstop take a breather. The Marlins avoided being swept with a 7-6 win in 10 innings. Braxton Garrett made his 2024 debut for the Marlins, allowing five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, though he fanned eight.

          • On the Phillies side, Zack Wheeler posted a rare stinker when he surrendered six earned runs in just four frames, fanning only one. Spencer Turnbull pitched an inning in relief for the Phillies, which is significant because he's no longer an option to piggyback with tonight's starter Cristopher Sanchez. That suggests that Sanchez won't be lifted early in tonight's road tilt against the New York Mets.

          • As can be viewed on the Closer Chart, Boston reliever Kenley Jansen is given the "tired" tag as he has now appeared on three straight days, logging a save on both Saturday and Sunday. Primary setup man Chris Martin notched the win on Saturday and a hold yesterday, but isn't "tired" because he only needed a combined 21 pitches over the weekend. Even so, the club will likely look elsewhere with Jensen unavailable tonight. Greg Weissert and Justin Slaten are the prime candidates.

          Everything else you need to know for Monday

          • It's rare that the top streamer is also the top overall pitcher, but that's the case with Cristopher Sanchez (9.9% rostered in ESPN leagues) getting the nod for the Philadelphia Phillies on the road against the New York Mets. There was some speculation that Sanchez would be used in piggyback fashion with Spencer Turnbull, but in the first opportunity to do so last Tuesday, Sanchez hurled seven frames, so at least for now, Sanchez's innings won't be tempered. Sanchez has fanned a palatable 34 in 36 1/3 innings, though 15 walks is high. Sanchez has benefited from surrendering just one homer. That'll clearly rise, but not likely in Citi Field facing a lineup devoid of worrisome power, save Pete Alonso.

          • Monday is not the ideal slate for streaming pitchers, though Matt Manning's promotion avails another option. The Detroit Tigers placed Kenta Maeda on the 15-day IL with a viral illness, with Manning taking the open spot in the rotation. The righty draws a Miami Marlins lineup with the second-lowest wOBA in the league, though they got to Zack Wheeler on Sunday. Even so, on a ledger with limited options, Manning is worth a look.

          • The Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees are the only teams with an off day, but there are several fantasy assets in those lineups, leaving holes on some fantasy squads. A surprising place to look is on the Oakland Athletics, as they visit Minute Maid Park with Spencer Arrighetti on the hill for the Houston Astros. Arrighetti has a bloated 8.02 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over five outings. He has fanned 25 in 21 1/3 innings but has also issued 13 walks while surrendering four homers. Brent Rooker (36.3%), Abraham Toro (14.9%), JJ Bleday (2.8%), Seth Brown (0.8%) and Brett Harris (0.5%) are the primary targets. Harris is especially intriguing in points leagues with a 19.4% walk rate.

          • Betting tip of the day: It's finally starting to warm up in New England, with game time temperatures in Fenway Park expected to be in the low 60s, which still teeters towards pitching. Look for a low-scoring affair when the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays renew acquaintances for the first time this season. I'll take under 8.5 runs (-110).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Monday