With access to play-by-play data from the NHL, it's possible to adapt some of the traditional NHL analytics to our little corner of the hockey realm here in fantasy. This has taken a while to develop, but I'd like to introduce you this week to what I will call fantasy Corsi.
For those who need a quick refresher, Corsi is an analytics metric that essentially counts the shot attempts (on net, missing the net or blocked) that occur while a player is on the ice. It doesn't have to be a shot attempt by the player; it just has to occur while the player is on the ice. By combining Corsi for and Corsi against, it gives a decent proxy for puck possession that is widely accepted and used. The NHL even adopted it -- not by the Corsi moniker, but as "shot attempts" -- on it's official stat page in 2015.
So why not make our own fantasy version? Essentially, by using the NHL's data we can figure out how many fantasy points were scored while a player is on the ice.
We have to make a few adjustments here, because for fantasy purposes a goal, assist, and the special teams bonus for them, all occur within the same moment. But here's where I landed on the stats for fantasy Corsi:
Assist = Will be included in the goals total as 1.7 points, as there are 1.7 assists per goal so far this season.
Goal = 3.7 points (this is the standard two points for a goal, plus the 1.7 for assists).
Special-teams goal = 4.2 points (same as above, plus the 0.5 bonus).
Hit = 0.1 points (same as standard fantasy game).
Shot = 0.1 points (same as standard fantasy game).
Blocked shot = 0.5 points (same as standard fantasy game).
Applying these stats to each player for when that player is on the ice gives us a fantasy Corsi number for each player in the NHL. What it is, basically, is the total value of fantasy points scored while that skater was on the ice.
There are a few things we can do with this, but one of the first that I wanted to share was a look at each player's own actual fantasy points as a percentage of their fantasy Corsi. This shows how many of the total fantasy points that have occurred while they are on the ice each player manages to earn for themselves.
We'll look at some individual players but, since this is a new metric, I'll offer some contextual stats. This particular dataset runs through all games played until this past Saturday, Dec. 16.
Noah Dobson leads the league in fantasy Corsi for, with 382.2 fantasy points scored while he was on the ice.
Quinn Hughes is next (372.2), then Nikita Kucherov (369.5) and Nathan MacKinnon (359.8).
The highest fantasy Corsi per 60 (so fantasy Corsi relative to ice time) belongs to Zach Hyman (35.9).
The average fantasy Corsi for all skaters with at least 25 games played is 192.4.
The average fantasy Corsi for the top 300 skaters in fantasy points is 222.4.
The average fantasy Corsi percentage (a player's actual fantasy points as a percentage of their fantasy Corsi) is 22.5%
I could probably go on for ages with tidbits, but I think that's enough to at least get a sense of how some of the stats below sit compared to the league.
Just a bystander while good things happen
These are some of the skaters collecting the lowest percentage of fantasy points that have occurred while they are on the ice. Maybe that means that are due for a hot streak? But it could also mean they are simply a bystander this season.
Hampus Lindholm, D, Boston Bruins (45.9% available)
31.3 fantasy points; 235.0 fantasy Corsi = 13.3%
The side we saw of Lindholm last season, when he became a No. 1 defender and power-play quarterback, isn't around this campaign. And that's OK. But this should be further evidence that he shouldn't be rostered. Even this week, with Charlie McAvoy out, it's Kevin Shattenkirk on the point for the advantage.
Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets (33.9% available)
37.4 fantasy points; 249.0 fantasy Corsi = 15.0%
The problem with new statistics, is that I don't know what to do with them yet. Here we have a troubled fantasy player -- a superstar two seasons ago that has bottomed out for production despite still being close to his prime. Does the low fantasy Corsi percentage indicate he's just getting bad luck? Or does it mean he's getting tons of ice time with effective players and still managing to not collect points? I'll need to do some work with fantasy Corsi on previous seasons to see if we can glean more. My gut here? It says we don't have a sudden Gaudreau hot streak on the horizon.
Luke Hughes, D, New Jersey Devils (20.3% available)
35.8 fantasy points; 237.9 fantasy Corsi = 15.0%
Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, Vancouver Canucks (31.2% available)
33.3 fantasy points; 212.7 fantasy Corsi = 15.7%
Like Gaudreau, Kuzmenko was getting a ton of ice time with elite linemates and not getting the points. Unlike in Columbus, however, the Canucks can and did demote Kuzmenko to the fourth line in recent games (the Blue Jackets can't just do that with their highest-paid player). Maybe Kuzmenko gets another shot later, but for now he's buried and weathering healthy scratches.
Alex Wennberg, C, Seattle Kraken (98.9% available)
37.2 fantasy points; 234.3 fantasy Corsi = 15.9%
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes (22.5% available)
42.6 fantasy points; 254.2 fantasy Corsi = 16.8%
Calle Jarnkrok, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (98.0% available)
36.1 fantasy points; 215.2 fantasy Corsi = 16.8%
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edmonton Oilers (5.9% available)
54.0 fantasy points; 318.2 fantasy Corsi = 17.0%
This is such a high total for fantasy Corsi and such a low percentage, this is one of the cases that feels due for a hot streak to catch back up. Nugent-Hopkins has been on the ice for so many fantasy points thanks to his role on the Oilers advantage and recent run with Connor McDavid as a linemate. But his 54.0 fantasy points don't reflect that much quality ice time. In fact, Nugent-Hopkins sits second to teammate Zach Hyman for the highest fantasy Corsi for per 60 (34.4) in the league. He may be a good trade target.
Nicholas Paul, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (76.0% available)
43.8 fantasy points; 254.6 fantasy Corsi = 17.2%
Logan Cooley, C, Arizona Coyotes (43.1% available)
35.1 fantasy points; 198.8 fantasy Corsi = 17.7%
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Calgary Flames (47.9% available)
33.4 fantasy points; 186.3 fantasy Corsi = 17.9%
Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (9.1% available)
58.2 fantasy points; 323.5 fantasy Corsi = 18.0%
Given the sheer volume of fantasy points being collected while Werenski is on the ice, he also feels like a potential candidate for better returns as the season continues. He has everything going for him, including the monstrous ice time. Werenski just needs improvement from the Jackets power play to get this thing really popping off.
Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia Flyers (29.8% available)
48.7 fantasy points; 269.4 fantasy Corsi = 18.1%
Jake DeBrusk, RW, Boston Bruins (48.5% available)
31.4 fantasy points; 169.6 fantasy Corsi = 18.5%
Chandler Stephenson, C, Vegas Golden Knights (49.2% available)
36.8 fantasy points; 197.1 fantasy Corsi = 18.7%
Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (74.6% available)
50.0 fantasy points; 267.0 fantasy Corsi = 18.7%
Brock Faber, D, Minnesota Wild (92.6% available)
43.3 fantasy points; 228.7 fantasy Corsi = 18.9%
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Los Angeles Kings (24.6% available)
29.1 fantasy points; 148.3 fantasy Corsi = 19.6%
That's a really low total for fantasy Corsi. Unless Dubois is going to be the catalyst when he is on the ice, it doesn't look like he's going to get going this year as the Kings third-line center.
Erik Karlsson, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (1.6% available)
55.3 fantasy points; 281.2 fantasy Corsi = 19.7%
Midas touch or getting lucky?
These are some of the players that have earned the highest percentage of all the fantasy points scored while they are on the ice. This end of the spectrum includes many of the elites (Auston Matthews, Davis Pastrnak, Jack Hughes and Connor McDavid are all 28.0% or higher), but also some players that may be getting some early-season puck luck that won't last forever.
Frank Vatrano, RW, Anaheim Ducks (8.9% available)
72.4 fantasy points; 211.1 fantasy Corsi = 34.3%
Here Vatrano sits, ahead of everyone in the NHL for this fantasy Corsi percentage (with the exception of Morgan Barron of the Winnipeg Jets, who only plays 10 minutes a game). For those that picked up Vatrano when he notched his second hat-trick in as many weeks on Oct. 28, the ride hasn't been terrible. He's still managed to earn almost 2.0 fantasy points per game (FPPG) post-Oct. 28, with six goals and eight assists in 23 contests. But he has been coming back to earth again, such as his current seven-game point drought. For the players at the top end of fantasy Corsi percentage, we have to ask, "Are they as good as the Matthews and Pastrnaks of the world, or are they getting lucky?"
Evander Kane, LW, Edmonton Oilers (17.0% available)
63.0 fantasy points; 191.9 fantasy Corsi = 32.8%
Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals (50.3% available)
55.6 fantasy points; 173.6 fantasy Corsi = 32.0%
Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Seattle Kraken (19.6% available)
63.3 fantasy points; 212.9 fantasy Corsi = 29.7%
Joel Farabee, LW, Philadelphia Flyers (88.8% available)
52.2 fantasy points; 179.0 fantasy Corsi = 29.2%
Sam Reinhart, RW, Florida Panthers (1.1% available)
84.7 fantasy points; 290.4 fantasy Corsi = 29.2%
Robby Fabbri, LW, Detroit Red Wings (76.4% available)
32.6 fantasy points; 115.4 fantasy Corsi = 28.2%
MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames (13.3% available)
79.6 fantasy points; 284.4 fantasy Corsi = 28.0%
Jake Walman, D, Detroit Red Wings (13.0% available)
67.1 fantasy points; 240.9 fantasy Corsi = 27.9%
Trevor Moore, LW, Los Angeles Kings (37.0% available)
54.7 fantasy points; 200.3 fantasy Corsi = 27.3%
Jake Neighbours, LW, St. Louis Blues (93.7% available)
40.5 fantasy points; 158.2 fantasy Corsi = 25.6%