We've reached arguably the trickiest week of the season in the Champions League, fantasy-wise. It's the final round of group stage games.
Three teams (Barcelona, Porto, Real Madrid) have already clinched the top spot in their group, and really have nothing to play for. The same goes for two teams (Roma, Schalke) who are already locked into second place in their group.
Seven more teams (Ajax, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester City, Manchester United) have qualified for the Round of 16, but could still finish first or second in their group. And four spots are still up for grabs, with seven teams (Inter Milan, Liverpool, Lyon, Napoli, Paris-Saint Germain, Shakhtar Donetsk, Tottenham) in contention for those places.
So you'll probably see some star players rested, and you'll want your fantasy roster stocked with players who will be highly motivated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
That leads us to the biggest decision of the week: do you pick Lionel Messi, or not?
It's hard not to select him. Messi has been far and away the best player in the Champions League so far this season. Despite playing in only three of Barcelona's five games due to injury, Messi has accumulated more fantasy points than anybody else. He's averaging over 42 points per game, and no one else is averaging as many as 25.
Messi has six goals and an assist in three games, including two goals in Barcelona's first meeting with Tottenham.
This time around Barcelona will be playing at home. But as mentioned above, they've already clinched first place in their group. Tottenham, on the other hand, are still trying to fight their way into the knockout rounds. Therefore, Barcelona have only been made slight favorites by the bookmakers.
Messi may not even play, which would obviously make this decision much easier. But I'm not planning to pick Messi this week anyway.
Paris-Saint Germain haven't earned their spot in the Round of 16 yet, either. They're currently second in Group C, one point behind Napoli and two points ahead of Liverpool. But PSG are the biggest favorites of the week, playing at Red Star Belgrade.
They destroyed Red Star 6-1 at home back in October, and Neymar did much of the damage. Not only did he score a hat trick, but he took nine shots, with seven of them on target (seven!) and he had five chances created as well. Neymar finished that game with a whopping 56.8 fantasy points.
My only concern is that Neymar has been dealing with a groin injury of late. But if he starts, he'll be my Tier 1 forward and captain.
Slim pickings?
The decision at Tier 1 midfielder this week is much tougher. In fact, when I first scanned the list, there wasn't a single player that I really wanted -- due in part to injuries, team circumstances, etc.
Paulo Dybala will probably be a popular choice. Juventus are solid favorites playing at Young Boys, and Dybala scored a hat trick against them the first time around. But Cristiano Ronaldo was suspended for that game, allowing Dybala to be the main man. Dybala has only scored one other Champions League goal this season, and only two goals in 13 Serie A appearances.
Raheem Sterling has one of the worst fantasy points averages in this tier. He has only scored one goal in five Champions League games, and has only finished in double figures in fantasy points once. However, I think he has the biggest upside in this group.
Manchester City are the second-biggest favorites of the week, at home against Hoffenheim. They still have something to play for, having not clinched first place in their group yet. And Sterling's domestic form has been excellent. He has eight goals and six assists in 13 Premier League games, and is second overall in fantasy points per game.
I'm going to roll the dice with Sterling this week. It seems like he's due for a big game in Europe.
Other picks
Mauro Icardi, Inter Milan (Tier 2 forward): Icardi scored a goal and took nine shots in a 2-1 win at PSV the first time around. Now Inter will be playing at home, and they're still fighting for a spot in the Round of 16. PSV, on the other hand, are already guaranteed to finish last in the group.
Marco Reus, Borussia Dortmund (Tier 2 midfielder): He only has one goal and one assist in five Champions League games, but Reus has had at least one goal or assist in five straight Bundesliga games. Plus Dortmund still have a chance of topping their group, while Monaco are already locked into last place and in terrible form in Ligue 1 as well.
Taison, Shakhtar Donetsk (Tier 3 midfielder): He scored two goals and had an assist in Shakhtar's 3-2 win at Hoffenheim two weeks ago. But Taison has been solid in his previous three Champions League appearances as well, despite not having a goal or assist in those games. He finished with 16.0 points in Shakhtar's 2-2 draw at Lyon in their first meeting, thanks to two shots on goal, four chances created and 55 passes completed.
Aymeric Laporte, Manchester City (Tier 1 defender): He's been remarkably consistent this season -- second in this tier in fantasy points per game, and third among defenders in the Premier League in fantasy points. Laporte leads the Premier League in passes completed, and Manchester City had 65.9 percent possession against Hoffenheim the first time around, away from home.
Ismaily, Shakhtar Donetsk (Tier 2 defender): He, like Taison, had a big game at Hoffenheim two weeks ago, finishing with a goal and an assist. But Ismaily also scored a goal at home against Hoffenheim and had an assist in the first meeting with Lyon. In fact, he has accumulated more fantasy points than any other defender in Tier 1, let alone Tier 2.
Wojciech Szczesny, Juventus (Goalkeeper): He has kept a clean sheet in four of five Champions League games and conceded only two goals (and one of them was an own goal). Young Boys have only scored two goals in five games, but they have taken 64 shots -- more than 12 other teams in the competition. Some saves would be nice, although Young Boys may not give 100 percent with no chance of getting out of the cellar in their group. Either way, I like Szczesny's chances of at least getting a clean sheet.