We've reached the midway point of the La Liga season, and Barcelona have a five-point lead on second-place Atletico Madrid, and a 10-point lead on both third-place Sevilla and fourth-place Real Madrid. Barca are also, by far, the biggest favorites in the league this coming weekend, playing at home against 13th place Leganes. They have now won six league games in a row, and outscored their opponents 18-1 in the process.
Luis Suarez actually outshone Lionel Messi last weekend, finishing with two goals and an assist in Barca's 3-0 win over Eibar. But Messi did score the other goal, and is still averaging 10 more fantasy points per game than Suarez on the season. Messi will be my Tier 1 forward and captain again this week.
If you feel like rolling the dice and really want a differential, Antoine Griezmann has now scored at least one goal in five consecutive league games, and Atletico Madrid are playing at last-place Huesca. But Huesca have been much better defensively at home -- only conceding 12 goals in nine games, compared to 24 in 10 away from home.
I'm also sticking with Dani Parejo at Tier 1 midfielder this week. He scored his fifth goal of the season in Valencia's 1-1 draw with Real Valladolid last Saturday, and really should have scored a second. Parejo is normally Valencia's penalty-taker, but struggling teammate Rodrigo asked if he could take Valencia's penalty kick against Valladolid, and proceeded to miss horribly. I'd be shocked if Parejo's not back on penalties after that debacle.
Regardless, Parejo has now finished with 20 or more points in four of his past five games. And Valencia are slight favorites despite playing at Celta Vigo -- Celta have the fourth-worst defensive record in the league, and just conceded four goals to 18th place Rayo Vallecano.
You could double up on Barcelona and go with Philippe Coutinho, who made his first league start since Dec. 2 last week against Eibar, and picked up the assist on Suarez's first goal. But Coutinho took only one shot in that game and had only one chance created, despite playing the full 90 minutes. Plus I'm not convinced Coutinho will remain in the starting lineup, anyway. I think there's a good chance Ousmane Dembele comes back in for Coutinho against Leganes.
Goals galore
Several Tier 2 forwards stood out in the last round of La Liga games, starting with Raul de Tomas. On loan from Real Madrid, the 24-year-old scored a hat trick in Rayo Vallecano's 4-2 win over Celta Vigo, and had another goal ruled out for offside. Inaki Williams scored both goals in Athletic Bilbao's 2-0 victory over Sevilla, and Willian Jose also scored two goals, and hit the woodwork, in Real Sociedad's 3-2 win over Espanyol. Cristhian Stuani scored his 12th goal of the season in Girona's 1-1 draw with Alaves, and Jorge Molina scored his sixth in Getafe's 2-1 victory at Villarreal.
Stuani is third in the league in goals, only two behind Suarez and five behind Messi. But I'm going to continue staying away from him. As I explained last week, Stuani provides very little besides goals, fantasy-wise. He's only averaging two shots per game, and is leading the league in fouls committed again this season -- and you get docked a point for each foul in ESPN's fantasy scoring system. No wonder Stuani only finished with 13.2 points last week, despite scoring a goal, and is only 29th in points on the season.
Plus Stuani picked up his fifth yellow card of the season last week, so he's suspended for Girona's game at Real Betis on Sunday anyway.
Rayo Vallecano will host Real Sociedad on Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised if both De Tomas and Willian Jose score goals. These teams played out a 2-2 draw back in September. Willian Jose scored a goal despite coming off the bench, and De Tomas took five shots, with three of them on target.
Real Sociedad are slight favorites, despite playing away from home. But I'm going to go with De Tomas this week. He's scored eight goals this season, two more than Willian Jose, and has taken 57 shots -- a whopping 34 more than Willian Jose, despite playing a similar amount of minutes. That breaks the tie for me.
Steer clear
I've been picking Girona center back Bernardo Espinosa as my Tier 2 defender for several weeks running. He continues to have the highest points per game average in his tier, thanks in part to being the league leader in clearances.
However, I won't be choosing Bernardo this week, and you shouldn't either.
Bernardo had his worst game of the season, fantasy-wise, in Girona's first game against Real Betis, a 1-0 home defeat back in September. Betis had 64.5 percent possession in that game, and Bernardo had only 25 passes completed, plus a season-high four fouls committed. He finished with just 2.5 points.
Instead, I'm going to take a chance on Daniel Wass, who notched an assist on a beautiful cross in Valencia's 3-0 Copa del Rey victory over Sporting Gijon on Tuesday. Wass only has two assists in the league this season, and is yet to score a goal, but he had four goals and 10 assists for Celta Vigo last season. And he'll be up against his former club on Saturday.
Wass is actually a midfielder who has filled in at fullback sometimes this season. But he lined up as a midfielder for Valencia's past three league games. Wass was subbed off in each of those games, which is a concern. But he played the full 90 minutes in these teams' first meeting of the season season, a 1-1 draw.
Other picks
Adnan Januzaj, Real Sociedad (Tier 2 midfielder): As mentioned above, I'm expecting goals in that Rayo Vallecano-Real Sociedad game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Januzaj is involved in one or more. He only took one shot in the 3-2 win over Espanyol on Monday, but had four chances created, and would have had the assist on the Willian Jose shot that hit the post. Januzaj also took four shots in each of the previous two games, and had six chances created in one of those games.
Cristian Tello, Real Betis (Tier 3 midfielder): Tello didn't start in Real Betis' 2-1 loss to Real Madrid last Sunday, but started the two games prior to that. He has a goal and five assists this season, despite making only five league starts, and scored at least 9.7 points in all five of those games. Plus Betis are solid favorites at home against Girona -- just make sure Tello is in the starting XI.
Sergio Ramos, Real Madrid (Tier 1 defender): Ramos is coming off, by far, his worst performance of the season fantasy-wise, finishing with just 5.0 points. But that's because Real Betis dominated possession against Real Madrid last weekend despite losing 2-1, to the tune of 72.7 percent, and Ramos had a season-low 25 passes completed. (Sound familiar?). But I don't expect Sevilla to dominate possession the same way at the Bernabeu on Saturday. Ramos is still on penalty kicks, and is still averaging over a point more per game than any other defender in the league.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Barcelona (Goalkeeper): I've already mentioned Barcelona's recent success -- six straight wins in the league, having conceded just one goal in the process. Leganes are tied for the league low in goals scored, with only 17 in 19 games, and have failed to score in their past two away games, against Espanyol and Celta Vigo. And I don't think Barcelona will take them lightly -- after all, Leganes beat Barca 2-1 in late September, one of only two league defeats for the league leaders so far this season.