Barcelona and Real Madrid are both huge favorites this coming weekend, playing at home against 15th place Real Valladolid and 17th place Girona. So, naturally, that's where you should start when building your La Liga fantasy team.
The big question is, will Lionel Messi play? He could be rested, given that he's been bothered by a minor thigh injury of late, and with Barca having a Champions League game at Lyon on Tuesday.
If Messi starts, he'll remain my Tier 1 forward and captain. Yes, he didn't have a goal or assist last week, but the last time that happened in the league was way back on Sept. 15! And for all the talk that Messi didn't look himself in the scoreless draw with Athletic Bilbao, he still took a team-high four shots, had two chances created, and finished with 13.2 fantasy points.
Barcelona play the late game on Saturday, and I think it's worth waiting to see if Messi's in the lineup -- which means I'll be passing on Antoine Griezmann, since Atletico Madrid play earlier in the day. If Messi doesn't start, you could switch to teammate Luis Suarez, who's second in the league in points per game. But Suarez has failed to score in three straight fixtures, and could be rested on Saturday as well.
Karim Benzema's form has been better than Suarez's of late. He scored a goal in Real Madrid's 2-1 Champions League win over Ajax on Wednesday, and although Benzema didn't score a goal last weekend against Atletico Madrid, he scored three in the previous two games.
Real Madrid don't play until Sunday, so Benzema is an option if Messi doesn't start. And he'd be my second choice after Messi, going up against a Girona side that is winless in its past 10 league games and has the second-worst defensive record in the league in terms of xG (expected goals) allowed. However, there's also a risk of Benzema not starting, with MARCA reporting Thursday that Benzema suffered a knock against Ajax.
Fortunately, there's one more decent Tier 1 forward option left on Sunday, if Benzema doesn't start as well. Sevilla play later in the day, and Wissam Ben Yedder has 11 goals and five assists this season -- as many goals as Griezmann, and just two fewer assists, despite playing 466 fewer minutes. Ben Yedder has scored two goals in his past three games, including one last week against Eibar, and Sevilla are up against 19th place Villarreal this week.
So, to recap: Messi's my first choice, Benzema's my second, and Ben Yedder's my third. Don't forget to check those starting lineups, or follow me on Twitter, because it could be a wacky weekend.
Against the narrative
There are three Barcelona options and four Real Madrid options at Tier 1 midfielder this week, and given the relatively weak opponents they are up against, I'll be picking one of these players.
More specifically, I'll be picking a Real Madrid player, because Girona have been so poor of late. They conceded two goals at home to cellar dwellers Huesca last week, and three to Eibar in their previous away match.
Girona have conceded 33 goals in 23 league games, but their xG allowed total is 40.09 - the second-worst mark in the league, as mentioned above.
Luka Modric and Casemiro are central midfielders, and not big enough goal threats to choose here. I'm going with one of the wingers, either Gareth Bale or Vinicius Junior.
There's been much more buzz among fans, and praise in the media, regarding Vinicius, the 18-year-old Brazilian in his debut season with the club. Bale, on the other hand, has widely been viewed as a disappointment so far this season.
But their stats are pretty similar -- in fact, Bale's numbers are better. Bale has six league goals in 1,218 minutes, and is averaging 0.44 xG per 90 minutes. Vinicius has two league goals in 539 minutes, and is averaging 0.33 xG per 90 minutes. Bale is also ahead of Vinicius in shots per 90 minutes, at 4.21 compared to 4.01.
Both started against Ajax on Wednesday, but I don't think that will happen on Sunday. Vinicius has started the past six league games in a row, while Bale has only started one of the past three. But if both players start against Girona, I'm going with Bale.
For what it's worth, Bale had a goal and an assist in Real Madrid's first game against Girona this season, a 4-1 victory -- although that game was back in August, under a different manager. Benzema scored two goals in that game.
Thursdays matter
The Champions League isn't the only thing that returned this week. The Europa League is also back, starting this Thursday, and four teams from La Liga are in the Round of 32: Sevilla, Real Betis, Valencia and Villarreal.
It's not as exciting as the Champions League, but it's still relevant in terms of shaping your La Liga fantasy squad. So keep an eye on who plays, who's rested, who performs well, and who doesn't.
As of now, I'm planning to go with Rodrigo as my Tier 2 forward this week. He was rested in Valencia's scoreless draw with Real Sociedad last weekend, only coming on in the 66th minute, but still took two shots and nearly scored on one of them.
Rodrigo only has four league goals this season, but his xG total of 11.33 puts him third in the league, behind only Suarez (15.92) and Messi (13.88). And Valencia are at home against Espanyol, who have conceded 37 goals in 23 games and have the fourth-worst xG allowed mark in the league (37.96).
Valencia play at Celtic in the Europa League on Thursday, which could impact my decision, but likely won't, given that Rodrgio already got a break last week.
I'm also planning to go with Real Betis players at both Tier 2 and Tier 3 midfielder this week, pending their Europa League fixture at Rennes on Thursday. There aren't any frequent goal-scorers available in these tiers, and I like going with Betis players because they have high floors fantasy-wise. Betis are second in the league in possession percentage (63.7), behind only Barcelona (65.3), so their players typically do well in terms of passes completed.
Giovani Lo Celso does have four goals and two assists in 19 league appearances, and has finished with no fewer than 8.9 points in his past four starts -- he's penciled in as my Tier 2 midfielder. William Carvalho has no goals, but does have three assists, is 13th in the league in passes completed, and has finished with no fewer than 9.2 points in his past four starts -- he's penciled in as my Tier 3 midfielder.
Betis are solid favorites at home against Alaves on Sunday, and they had 65.7 percent possession in these teams' first meeting this season, which ended in a scoreless draw.
Other picks
Sergio Ramos, Real Madrid (Tier 1 defender): Ramos scored his sixth goal of the season last weekend, and also scored a goal in Real Madrid's first game against Girona. The fact that he's on penalty kicks continues to make Ramos an easy choice here.
Hugo Mallo, Celta Vigo (Tier 2 defender): Mallo is a fullback/wingback who has a goal and three assists this season, and Celta are favored at home against a Levante side that sports the worst defensive record in the league, by far, in terms of xG allowed (52.64). If Mallo doesn't start (he came off early last week), teammate David Junca plays on the opposite side and has similar numbers.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Barcelona (Goalkeeper): He's coming off a great game, with a clean sheet and five saves (including a couple superb ones) against Athletic Bilbao. And now Ter Stegen will be facing a Real Valladolid team that has scored 19 goals in 23 games, four fewer than any other team in the league.