Barcelona now have a seven-point lead atop La Liga, thanks to their 1-0 win over Real Valladolid last weekend, followed by Real Madrid's stunning 2-1 home defeat at the hands of Girona.
However Barca are only the fifth-biggest favorites this coming weekend, playing at fourth-place Sevilla, who have lost only once in 11 home games so far this season.
But that will not deter me from choosing Lionel Messi as my Tier 1 forward and captain. Messi scored his league-leading 22nd goal of the season last week, but it was his underlying stats that really stood out. Barca took 20 shots against Valladolid, and Messi was involved in every single one of them. He took 12 himself and created the other eight, which enabled him to finish with more than 30 fantasy points despite failing to convert his second penalty kick.
Messi also took nine shots and had five chances created in the scoreless Champions League draw at Lyon on Tuesday. And he had a goal and an assist in Barca's first game against Sevilla, a 4-2 win back in October, despite having to come off in the 26th minute due to injury.
The much tougher decision this week, as usual, is at Tier 1 midfielder. Real Madrid are the biggest favorites of the weekend, despite coming off a loss, playing at Levante. It's tempting to pick a Real Madrid player here, especially given that Levante have conceded 43 goals in 24 games, tying them with Celta Vigo for the worst defensive record in the league.
But manager Santi Solari surprised many of us last week by leaving both Gareth Bale and Vinicius Junior on the bench at the start. And Real Madrid's game against Levante is the second-to-last match of the weekend, so waiting to see their lineup could backfire. Luka Modric and Casemiro, the other Real Madrid options in this tier, have only five goals between them this season -- their upside fantasy-wise isn't big enough, at least for me.
Dani Parejo, on the other hand, has been so consistent of late. He has now finished in double figures in points in eight straight games and 12 of his past 13, coming up just short (9.5) in the other one. Valencia played out a scoreless draw against Espanyol last weekend, yet Parejo still finished with 16.4 points, thanks to three shots, seven chances created and 55 passes completed. Plus, he has a bigger upside, given that he's on penalties and has already scored six goals this season.
Valencia are only very slight favorites at Leganes, who are 13th in the table but have been very good at home (five wins, five draws and only one defeat). But I think Parejo is still the best option this week. He collected 15.0 points against Leganes the first time around (a 1-1 draw), including an assist, five chances created and 60 passes completed.
Charles in charge
It's also a tough choice at Tier 2 forward this week, with many of the top scorers playing away from home.
Charles, Jose Luis Morales and Mikel Oyarzabal scored two goals apiece last weekend. But Charles and Oyarzabal are away this week, and Morales is at home but up against Real Madrid.
I'm going with Charles, despite Eibar being underdogs at Athletic Bilbao. He has started only 10 games this season, but that includes the past three in a row, and he's delivered at least one goal each time, including at Sevilla.
Charles has scored 12 goals this season, which ties him with Antoine Griezmann for fourth in the league. And Charles has played only 1,034 minutes, not even half as many as Griezmann (2,091). In fact, only Messi is averaging more goals per 90 minutes (1.10) than Charles (1.04), and they're level on xG (expected goals) per 90 minutes at 0.82!
He's on penalties, too -- Charles converted one last week and also converted one in the 1-1 draw between these teams back in October. Just make sure Charles is in the starting lineup on Saturday, or check my Twitter feed.
Banking on Betis
At Tier 2 and Tier 3 midfielder, I'm sticking with my strategy from last week and going with Real Betis players in both spots. Giovani Lo Celso scored his fifth goal of the season in Betis' 1-1 draw with Alaves, and he was deployed as a center forward -- if that continues, he should be a bigger goal threat. Lo Celso finished with 18.6 points last week, and I'm sticking with him in Tier 2.
William Carvalho finished with 12.9 points last week, despite taking only one shot, thanks mostly to 90 passes completed and two chances created. It was his fourth double-figure points finish in his past five games, and he'll remain my choice in Tier 3.
Betis lost their first game against Valladolid 1-0 at home but still dominated possession (62.6 percent). I expect them to have much more of the ball again this week, against a team that has won only two of its 15 league games since their first meeting.
But don't forget to check the Betis starting lineup on Sunday as well. They have a Europa League game against Rennes on Thursday, so there could be some rotation over the weekend.
Other picks
Marc Bartra, Real Betis (Tier 1 defender): With Sergio Ramos suspended this week, and Barcelona up against a tough opponent away from home, I'm going with a Betis player here as well. Aissa Mandi had a team-high 111 passes completed last week, 36 more than teammate Marc Bartra. But Bartra still outscored Mandi by 2.5 points, thanks to doing a lot more defensive work, and he's also averaging more points per game on the season.
Victor Laguardia, Alaves (Tier 2 defender): Laguardia scored a goal in Alaves' most recent home game, and also had an assist in their first game against Celta Vigo. And he leads the league in clearances with 154.
Jan Oblak, Atletico Madrid (Goalkeeper): Oblak has a league-high 12 clean sheets in 24 league games, and eight in 12 home games. He's coming off a clean sheet and six saves at Rayo Vallecano last weekend, and a clean sheet and three saves against Serie A leaders Juventus on Wednesday. This weekend Oblak is at home against 18th place Villarreal.