There are only eight games in the Premier League this weekend. Brighton, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester City are not involved, due to the latter two playing in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday.
It makes for a tricky week, fantasy-wise. Three of the top five players in terms of fantasy points this season are unavailable: Eden Hazard, Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero. And the other two, Mohamed Salah and Paul Pogba, are up against each other, with Manchester United hosting Liverpool on Sunday.
Arsenal are actually the biggest favorites of the round, at home against Southampton. But Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette are pretty goal-dependent players. Aubameyang's been the better of the two, with 15 goals on the season -- only Aguero and Salah have more, with 17 apiece. But Aubameyang only has two goals in his past six games, and finished with 5.1 points or less in the four games he didn't score a goal in.
There's a chance Harry Kane will be available, making an early return from his ankle injury. But Kane hasn't played since Tottenham's 1-0 loss to Manchester United on Jan. 13, and is there really a need to rush him back for an away match against Burnley? Even if Kane is in the Tottenham squad on Saturday, I'd expect him to come off the bench, if anything.
Salah's not just tied for the league lead in goals, but he's also second in the league in shots (87), tops in shots on target (43), tied for seventh in assists (7), and tied for sixth in chances created (52). He's capable of a big game against anybody.
The same goes for Pogba, whose outstanding form under new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer continued in Manchester United's 2-0 FA Cup win at Chelsea on Monday. Pogba scored one goal, and provided the assist on the other. And in nine league games since Solskjaer took over, Pogba has eight goals and five assists.
Pogba didn't play the first time around against Liverpool, a 3-1 defeat which ended up being Jose Mourinho's final game in charge. But Pogba's also proven he can deliver against tough opponents. He did so against Chelsea on Monday, and also had an assist and took six shots (five on target) in that victory over Tottenham in mid-January mentioned above.
I wouldn't blame you if you went with Son Heung-Min or Christian Eriksen at Tier 1 midfielder, given the matchup against Burnley -- particularly Son, who has scored a goal in four straight games. But there's a reason why Pogba is averaging nearly four points more per game than Son. They both have 11 goals on the season, but Pogba has three more assists, 16 more chances created, has taken 25 more shots, and 20 more shots on target. He'll be Tier 1 midfielder this week, but Salah will be my captain because he's the more likely goal-scorer.
TGIF
Not only are there only eight games this weekend, but there are two on Friday, which is highly unusual for the Premier League. And one of them -- West Ham vs. Fulham -- could have serious fantasy implications.
Fulham have conceded 58 goals, 10 more than any other team, and that includes a league-high 32 goals away from home in 13 fixtures. In fact, Fulham are the only team that's winless away from home this season, with 11 defeats and two draws.
So, West Ham's Marko Arnautovic will be my Tier 2 forward ... if he starts.
The problem is, Arnautovic may not start. He came off the bench in West Ham's most recent game, a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace. Arnautovic didn't score a goal in their previous two games either, despite starting against both Arsenal and Wolves. And what's even more troubling is that he took only one shot in those three appearances combined.
However, the matchup against Fulham is too good to pass up. If Arnautovic does not start, I'll probably flip over to Fulham and select Aleksandar Mitrovic. Yes, Mitrovic is away from home, and hasn't scored a goal in his past two games, but he took three shots in each of those games. In fact, Mitrovic is the league leader in shots (91), and is fourth in shots on target (34). He has scored 10 goals this season, but his xG (expected goals) total is even higher (11.67).
Set-up man
Leicester City host Crystal Palace in the late game on Saturday, and James Maddison is a pretty easy choice at Tier 2 midfielder this week, given the teams not in action and the other players not available.
Maddison hasn't scored a goal since Dec. 5, and only has two assists since then. But he continues to put up solid fantasy numbers thanks to chances created. Maddison had seven in their most recent game, a 3-1 loss to Tottenham, and is second in the league in that category (64), behind only Hazard (68).
Just make sure Maddison is in the starting lineup, or check my Twitter feed, because manager Claude Puel left Maddison on the bench twice in January. But Maddison has started the past three games, and played the full 90 minutes against Tottenham.
Other picks
Gerard Deulofeu, Watford (Tier 3 midfielder): Watford are favored despite playing at Cardiff City on Friday, and Deulofeu's best game of the season came against Cardiff the first time around. He had a goal and an assist, and finished with 26.2 points.
Toby Alderweireld, Tottenham (Tier 1 defender): Tottenham had 69.8 percent possession against Burnley the first time around, and Alderweireld completed a team-high 101 passes in that game. He's also finished in double figures in points in 10 of his past 11 starts.
Michail Antonio, West Ham (Tier 2 defender): Antonio continues to be deployed as a winger or forward, as opposed to a defender, and scored a goal against Liverpool two games ago. He has a low floor fantasy-wise, but the matchup against Fulham makes him worth the risk if he lines up as an attacker again, in my opinion.
Hugo Lloris, Tottenham (Goalkeeper): He's coming off a clean sheet and five saves against Bundesliga leaders Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday, so I like his chances of another clean sheet at Burnley, who he also shut out the first time around.