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For Nigeria and South Africa to be AFCON 'rivals', Bafana would actually need to win

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Can South Africa stun Nigeria in the AFCON semifinals? (1:51)

Leonard Solms debates whether South Africa can surprise Nigeria to reach the AFCON final. (1:51)

Nigeria and South Africa will meet in the Africa Cup of Nations semifinals for only the second time in history, and Bafana Bafana's objective of stemming the Super Eagles' dominance against them will be their primary objective.

The South Africans will also be looking to lay to rest the narrative that their 1996 AFCON title win was somehow less legitimate due to the absence of Nigeria.

The Super Eagles, then the reigning African champions and arguably Africa's best team at the time, were withdrawn at the last minute by then-president Sani Abacha. Abacha took umbrage at criticism from South African leader Nelson Mandela over the murder of Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other Ogoni leaders from south Nigeria.

When they met again on Nigeria's return to the tournament in 2000 after a one tournament ban, Bafana Bafana were handed a rude awakening, beaten 2-0 in the semifinal.

Although Wednesday's meeting in Bouake will be the first time in 24 years that both countries will contest another semifinal, there has been plenty of water under the bridge. Bafana have not won another title since, while the Super Eagles won their third in their backyard in Johannesburg in 2013.

On head to head, Bafana have made big inroads, chipping away at Nigeria's dominance, which saw them finally earn a first ever competitive win in 2017 when they stunned the Super Eagles with a 2-0 win in the Nigerian city of Uyo in a 2019 Nations Cup qualifier.

Still, in the eight games since that 2000 discombobulation, Nigeria have won four, lost one and drawn three, which has led former Nigeria international goalkeeper Idah Peterside to dismiss this as a rivalry in football terms.

"When you look at it from a football perspective, there is no rivalry because Nigeria has dominated South Africa," Peterside told ESPN. "They have only won one competitive game since 1992, so how can you call that a rivalry?"

South Africa goalkeeper Rowen Williams was the standout performer in their penalty shootout win over Cape Verde in the quarterfinals, and he says the stats don't matter.

"There were so many stats that were against us this tournament and we proved that stats don't play the game," he said at the pre-match press conference on Tuesday.

"What happened in the past has happened and we can't change that. What we can change is tomorrow's result, tomorrow's performance. We control what we can control and that is tomorrow's performance and tomorrow's result."

Peterside points out that the real rivalry is elsewhere: "Where the real rivalry is more off the pitch, more political. Nigeria have alway claimed to be the giant of Africa, and then you have South Africa come in and take a leadership position in Africa. When they won the AFCON in 1996, that is when the rivalry spilled over into football."

Politics is not where it ends. In entertainment too, Nigeria and South Africa are neck and neck, and this weekend further emphasized that divide, with Nigerians left miffed after South Africa singer Tyla won a Grammy Award over Nigeria's Davido in the Global Album category.

That has spilled out into the streets, with Nigerians expressing concern that there may be xenophobic attacks on Nigerians and their businesses in South Africa if Bafana Bafana lose, following threats received on social media.

"Nigerians in South Africa are already taking precautions to protect themselves and their businesses right now," said Peterside, who has lived in Johannesburg for the past 27 years since moving there to play for Tembissa Classic and is keyed into the community there.

"Win or lose, there are certain elements there who will want to cause trouble, so there have been messages among the Nigerian community to protect themselves and their businesses."

These claims are not idle rumours, as they have prompted the Nigerian embassy in Pretoria to issue an advisory, cautioning Nigerians about their behaviour during and after the game.

On the field however, Nigeria coach Jose Peseiro, whose team are favourites to win, says that tag will not matter on the pitch: "It is good for you in the media to talk about. But for me, nothing changes.

"I don't know if Nigeria is favourite or not. What I know is that I believe in this team that we can win this competition. But to believe is one thing, to win is another thing. That means on the pitch, we must repeat the same performance as we have done.

"Defend together with eleven on the pitch and 14 on the bench, and attack together with eleven on the pitch and 14 on the bench. We have been doing it and I want us to repeat it. Nothing in the past can influence that, only our confidence and belief."

Nigeria suffered a scare with striker Victor Osimhen coming down with a stomach discomfort and failing to travel with the rest of the squad. The Napoli man recovered however, and joined the team in Bouake for it final training session before the game.

Osimhen or not, Bafana coach Hugo Broos says his team are not worried, and plan to neutralize him: "We don't fear Osimhen and the Nigerian attack.

"We know they are good players. But we will try to do something so that they are not so dangerous. Their defence is also very good but those are things that were said about Morocco also and we won."

Win or lose however, Nigeria will extend a record no other African team has. That of the most appearances in the last four of the Nations Cup. They have appeared in the semifinals in 15 of their 19 appearances at the tournament, and finished on the podium all 15 times.

This time, they will be aiming for gold and Bafana Bafana are the the first of two obstacles now standing in their way.