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ESPN Insider- ESPN Insider college basketball contributor
- First began covering college hoops in 2004
- Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal
Time to pick some upsets.
Now that we have the complete NCAA men's tournament field of 68 for 2022, you're likely searching for that 12-over-5 upset that's bound to happen. If you're anything like us, you also want some numbers to point you in the right direction.
Giant Killers is here to help. Back for a 16th NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for NCAA tournament upsets. You can read the details here, but the idea is pretty straightforward: Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.
As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-line seed differential (a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example). We know there will be upsets in the NCAA tournament. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.
Here are Giant Killers' top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.