Another month, another UFC pay-per-view event affected by injury.
February's UFC 221 in Perth, Australia, was hit hard when Aussie champ Robert Whittaker was forced out of a title defense against Luke Rockhold by multiple injuries.
UFC 222 this weekend has suffered a similar fate. Four weeks ago, featherweight champion Max Holloway pulled out of a main event title defense against Frankie Edgar, due to a bum ankle.
Saturday's card is now headlined by female featherweight champion Cris 'Cyborg' Justino, taking on a virtually unknown challenger in Yana Kunitskaya.
The UFC is used to rolling with punches though, and the stakes are very real for Justino. ESPN's Cheat Sheets are here to take a closer look at the event.
Frankie Edgar (22-5-1) vs. Brian Ortega (13-0), Featherweight
Odds: Edgar -175; Ortega +145
It's been six years since Edgar held a UFC title. That almost doesn't seem possible.
Edgar, 36, is one of the best fighters of all time, but a UFC championship has floated just slightly out of reach since 2012. The former lightweight champ came within one scorecard of reclaiming his belt in a controversial split decision to Benson Henderson in 2012. He's 7-2 since dropping to featherweight the following year, but both losses came against Jose Aldo -- with a title on the line.
He was supposed to face Max Holloway for the featherweight belt in December, but he withdrew with an injury. He was supposed to do so again this weekend, though this time, it was Holloway who pulled out, hurt.
Had Edgar opted to sit and wait for Holloway's return, no one would have blamed him. Quite frankly, most expected him to do so. But that ain't Frankie.
"There's a risk in everything," said Edgar, on accepting a bout with Ortega. "What do I want to do, not fight? Sit on a title shot, and god forbid I get hurt again? Or Max gets hurt? I'm not getting this time back. I have to make the most of what's in front of me."
On the other side of the cage, Ortega will be taking on his share of risk as well.
Since debuting with the UFC in 2014, the 27-year-old has accomplished something that is proving increasingly more difficult to do in the UFC's busy schedule: stand out.
With a UFC record of 5-0, including a finish over Cub Swanson, Ortega was likely sitting on a title shot of his own. Before Holloway's injury, Ortega, whose guaranteed pay for his last fight was only $29,000, had stated he was fine waiting for the winner.
Instead, this budding star will face a veteran in Edgar -- who is not only capable of beating him but could perhaps also beat him in a way that would demolish most of the buzz around him.
"All those thoughts happened in my head [when the fight was offered]," Ortega said. "But at the same time, there are guys who have waited before, were promised a title shot, and things never happened for whatever reason. If I beat Frankie, it secures, for sure, a title shot. If I beat Frankie, the fight between Max and myself will get booked.
"I figured why wait, and cross your fingers for that shot? Take advantage of this opportunity. Take a fight on short notice and save a card. Fight fans always appreciate a fighter who is willing to step up on short notice."
One month ago, Edgar and Ortega each had a title shot: Edgar at UFC 222, Ortega presumably on deck. As things have turned out, they'll now square off on Saturday for just one. Those are some awesome stakes.
Fight breakdown
When Edgar describes Ortega as "opportunistic," as he has in multiple interviews leading up this event, it is not by accident.
Ortega has not dominated his UFC opposition. Far from it. In fact, in his five official UFC wins, he's only out-landed his opponent in strikes once. Also, in those five wins, he hasn't converted a single takedown. Believe it or not, despite that perfect record, Ortega has been out-struck by his opponents 221 to 264, and he's allowed 10 total takedowns, while scoring zero himself.
That's remarkable, and it speaks to just how "opportunistic" Ortega is. Ortega is the kind of fighter who can essentially never use knee strikes, but land a picture perfect one in the third round of a close fight against Clay Guida to secure victory. He's the kind of fighter who can go multiple rounds without actively seeking a takedown, but suddenly tie up your neck in a guillotine while you're still on your feet. He is a crafty, confident finisher.
And if he's going to beat Edgar, he'll need to be that again. Because on paper, there aren't many areas in which Ortega holds an advantage.
Ortega is competitive on the feet, but he's still fine-tuning his standup. He's athletic, but not exceptionally fast. Frankly, he's probably used to dealing with a speed disadvantage. Throughout his career, Ortega has been vulnerable to punches in combinations. He sees punches coming and wears them well, but he's sometimes just not fast enough to avoid them. He manages this lack of quick-twitch speed with straight punches that are direct to the target and distance management.
As cliché as it may sound, his confidence is a legitimate factor. Ortega wears the look of someone who believes good things will happen, and they usually do. He's actually at his best, arguably, when there's a sense of urgency -- late in the fight and the scores are in the air. And he has the confidence to attempt things out of nowhere, which adds a layer of unpredictability.
Pressure, feints, combinations, level changes -- these are the qualities that will disrupt Ortega's (more or less) boxing style. They also go a long way in describing Frankie Edgar.
Expect Edgar to be comfortable on the feet, where he's better defensively than Ortega, and more diverse. Expect him to be extremely aware of the clinch, and avoid it. Because Ortega's submission skills are genuinely world class, and can turn a bout upside down in a heartbeat. As long as Edgar is doing well on the feet, he may just want to keep it there.
Expect Ortega to lose the majority of this fight but produce one or two moments that bring the crowd to the edge of its seat. Whether he's able to fully capitalize on those moments will dictate the fight.
Prediction: Edgar by decision, 30-27.