Let's finish up the preview of the NFL season with my annual look at how each of the league's 32 teams can win the Super Bowl. Obviously, there's only one trophy to go around in the real world, but this preview isn't about depicting what is most likely to happen this season. It's a look at the universe each team might need to populate if it wants to deliver on its hopes and dreams and claim the Lombardi Trophy in February in Las Vegas.
At the end of a long summer when we've all spent months thinking about who will win Super Bowl LVIII, I know what you're thinking: Don't be ridiculous. There are probably six or seven teams that have a shot at winning the title, at best. The Chiefs probably are going to be representing the AFC because that's simply what happens just about every season. There's no point in even talking about scenarios in which two-thirds of the league advances to the championship game, because there's no hope of that happening.
Here's where I have to rely on history. Let's consider some of the teams that exceeded expectations in recent memory:
The 1999 Rams were coming off a 4-12 season and lost starting quarterback Trent Green to a torn ACL during the preseason. They had the sixth-longest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner won MVP, and St. Louis took home the hardware.
The 2001 Patriots had the league's seventh-longest odds heading into the season, and that was with Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. Bledsoe got hurt in September, unheralded backup Tom Brady took over and a team that had gone 5-11 the previous season upset the Rams to win the first of many Super Bowls.
The 2007 Giants were 15th in preseason Super Bowl odds and spent the summer wondering whether edge rusher Michael Strahan would return to the team. They upset the previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.
The 2017 Eagles were tied for 14th in Super Bowl odds, alongside the Texans (who would go 4-12) and Vikings (5-11). After posting a losing record the previous season, the Eagles rode MVP-caliber play from Carson Wentz to a division title, then Nick Foles to a Super Bowl upset of the Pats.
The 2021 Bengals ranked 29th in the ESPN Football Power Index's estimation of Super Bowl chances heading into the season. Although they didn't claim the trophy, they made it far further than anybody expected, winning the AFC before falling just short in Inglewood, California, on the biggest stage.
With that in mind, I'm going to run through each team and the scenario that might lead it to winning the Super Bowl (or at least making a deep playoff run) during the 2023 season. In some cases, the best I can do is paint a picture for a divisional title and hope the team stumbles blissfully through the postseason riding fumble and field goal luck. For many, though, it's possible to imagine a scenario in which everything goes right and the team emerges as one of the best in football.
I'll run from worst to first in order of the expected Super Bowl odds in the FPI (Football Power Index), but I'll also give each team's chance of making it into the playoffs. You probably won't be surprised where things end, but you definitely won't be shocked to see where these rankings start:
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Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Arizona Cardinals
Chance to win Super Bowl LVIII: Less than 0.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 4.4%