New Zealand Rugby's decision to take its second Bledisloe Cup encounter to Japan raised a few eyebrows when it was announced earlier this year. But any queries over the decision to give up home ground advantage were quickly forgotten when they whacked the Wallabies by a combined score of 78-25 over consecutive weeks in August.
Thus, we again have a third trans-Tasman Test in the same year that means little, other than to give the hosts a taste of what's to come when the World Cup arrives next year. For the All Blacks, it is an ideal stopover ahead of what looms as a big month in Europe.
A fortnight after they face the Wallabies, New Zealand arrive at Twickenham for their much-anticipated showdown with England -- their first since 2014 -- while Ireland will also prove a monumental challenge away in Dublin. Another commanding win over the Wallabies will set the world champions on the right path; but they'll want to hit Yokohama Stadium in a far better frame of mind than the corresponding game in Brisbane last year.
That 23-18 win could have heralded a new beginning for the Wallabies, such was the passion, determination and execution they applied on a slippery Brisbane evening. Alas, it came to nothing as they then went on to Europe and signed off 2017 with heavy losses to England and Scotland. And it hasn't improved since. In fact, it's actually got a whole lot worse.
While against Ireland they showed glimpses of the kind of rugby that could make them contenders at next year's World Cup, the Wallabies were ultimately beaten 2-1 before being completely outplayed by the All Blacks. Still, worse was to come. Having edged the Springboks, Michael Cheika's side were beaten by Argentina on the Gold Coast and then couldn't capitalise on a mountain of second-half ball in South Africa in a loss to the Springboks.
At 31-7 down a week later in Salta, many Wallabies fans switched off in what appeared to be the final insult in a horror year. But after a vicious halftime serve from Cheika, the Australians finally burst into action and went onto win 45-34. It was an incredible comeback that eased the pressure on the Wallabies coaching staff...until Saturday evening at least.
How the All Blacks win it
While they were without Brodie Retallick, Beauden Barrett and Ben Smith for last year's loss in Brisbane, the All Blacks lost their way badly in Brisbane last year. Oddly, they seemed more intent on antagonising Australia than actually executing a game plan themselves. Twelve months on, New Zealand again hold the upper hand, by some margin, and know that if Australia again looks to play with ball-in-hand, they are happy to wait for the right breakdown to attack, or an Australian mistake, and then pounce with devastating effect.
In their back-to-back Bledisloe victories in August, the All Blacks played some brilliant counter-attacking rugby, cutting the Wallabies to pieces after the Australians had exhausted themselves in stringing multiple phases together. New Zealand dominated the set-piece, too, and will back themselves to again pressure a misfiring Australian lineout.
How the Wallabies win it
Sure, the Wallabies boast some brilliant attacking players while Israel Folau's move to outside centre is at least something new for the All Blacks to ponder. But if Cheika is to force Steve Hansen into some sort of rethink, he simply has to take Australia away from the game plan he has hung his hat on: it's time to dial back to rugby Wallabies fans recognise as the "Australian way".
Dane Haylett-Petty's shift to fullback has been a positive on an otherwise awful year for the Wallabies, and Cheika should look to use his educated kicking boot while also demanding more punting accuracy from the likes of Will Genia, Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale. That approach demands a water-tight kick-chase but it may actually ask Barrett to play more of a director role at No.10, a responsibility many in his homeland still question his ability to carry out.
Team news
All Blacks: Damian McKenzie, Ben Smith, Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams, Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Kieran Read (capt), Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody.
Replacements: Nathan Harris, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Nepo Laulala, Brodie Retallick, Matt Todd, Aaron Smith, Richie Mo'unga, Anton Lienert-Brown.
Wallabies: Dane Haylett-Petty, Sefa Naivalu, Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Marika Koroibete, Bernard Foley, Will Genia, David Pocock, Michael Hooper (capt), Ned Hanigan, Rob Simmons, Izack Rodda, Allan Alaalatoa , Folau Faingaa, Scott Sio.
Replacements: Tolu Latu, Sekope Kepu, Taniela Tupou, Rory Arnold, Jack Dempsey, Pete Samu, Nick Phipps, Samu Kerevi, Tom Banks (one to be omitted)
Key match-up: Ryan Crotty vs. Israel Folau
Firstly, it's just great to see Crotty back playing after the serious head knock in Bledisloe I created the very real situation his career may be at an end. Here's hoping he plays out the remainder of his rugby days concussion free, and bows out on his own terms. Reunited with Sonny Bill Williams in the midfield, Crotty is the perfect foil for world rugby's offload king and will surely ask plenty of questions of Folau in defence, either as decoy or as the ball-runner himself. But he won't have experienced Folau running directly in his channel much before either, which represents far greater challenges than those that Reece Hodge, Tevita Kuridrani or Samu Kerevi present.
Cheika has long considered a move into the frontline for Folau, but it was at the Waratahs where the code-hopper actually showed he may be up to the challenges of playing in the No.13 jersey. While he was restored to the back-three this year, Folau certainly had his moments at outside centre with NSW. But playing Test rugby in what is regarded as the most difficult defensive channel of all is a massive step up, particularly for a player who has spent much of this season on the wing.
Attack-wise, it should be an easy adjustment as he often finds himself in that second, or third, receiver role in attack anyway. With Kerevi likely to be given a start when the Wallabies arrive Britain, and Kuridrani set to join the tour, Folau can at least give Cheika something to ponder with a strong outing in Yokohama.
Verdict
Can the Salta comeback prove the catalyst for a Wallabies revival? An improvement, yes. A complete reversal of their mixed 2018 form, no. For starters, the Wallabies have shown few signs they are anything even close to an 80-minute team and will be doing well to be in the contest inside the final 20 minutes.
It won't be another 30-point massacre, but New Zealand have tougher tasks on the horizon and will want to nail this performance after last year's Brisbane shocker.
New Zealand by 17.