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Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Round 3 line-ups, predictions, odds

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Rethinking the 'use it or lose it' breakdown law (2:45)

The ESPN Scrum Reset discuss the counterproductive sanction for the game's "use it or lose it" law, offering an alternative to keep the game moving. (2:45)

Another edition of Super Round has been and gone with a couple surprising results and nail-biter to close out the weekend.

Now back to regularly scheduled programming as games return across Australia and New Zealand, while the Fijian Drua prepare for their first game at home on the islands.

Will the Crusaders or Drua get their first win of the season? Can the Chiefs keep their perfect record?

Check out all the team lists, key ins and outs, odds and our tips below.

Friday, March 8

Moana Pasifika vs.

Melbourne Rebels

FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton, 5:05pm [AEDT]

Moana: Danny Toala, Pepesana Patafilo, Henry Taefu, Julian Savea, Anzelo Tuitavuki, William Havili; Eretara Enari, Lotu Inisi, Sione Havili Talitui, Jacob Norris, Allan Craig, Tom Savage, Sione Mafileo, Samiuela Moli, Abraham Pole.

Replacements: Tomasi Maka, Sateki Latu, Sekope Kepu, Ola Taulangi, Irie Papuni, Melani Matavao, Christian Lealiifano, Kyren Taumaefolau.

Rebels: Jake Strachan, Lachie Anderson, Filipo Daugunu, David Feliuai, Andrew Kellaway, Carter Gordon, Ryan Louwrens; Rob Leota, Vaiolini Ekuasi, Josh Kemeny, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Josh Canham, Sam Talakai, Jordan Uelese, Matt Gibbon.

Replacements: Ethan Dobbins, Isaac Kailea, Taniela Tupou, Tuaiana Taii Tualima, Daniel Maiava, James Tuttle Glen Vaihu, Lukas Ripley.

Odds [tab.com.au]: Moana $2.35, +4.5 $1.90; Rebels $1.55, -4.5 $1.85

Prediction: Hamilton is the scene of Moana Pasifika's first home game of the season with North Harbour Stadium's turf not up to scratch at this point of the season. It will be a happy new homecoming for Moana, too, after they backed up their impressive performance against the Highlanders to sink the Drua at Super Round, Tana Umaga's team fighting off a late comeback from the Fijians and a red and yellow card to win a thriller. The Rebels were equally as impressive in coming from behind to defeat the Force, with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Carter Gordon and Andrew Kellaway all superb. Concerns remain about Gordon's goal-kicking, but he shouldn't have to worry about that in Hamilton with Jake Strachan coming into the Rebels team at fullback. There are three further changes to the Rebels pack, with Vaiolini Ekuasi, Sam Talakai and Jordan Uelese all coming into the run-on-side; Taniela Tupou will provide impact off the bench. There looks to be few points in this one, but Moana have made the more convincing start to 2024.

Tip: Moana by 3.

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NSW Waratahs vs.

Highlanders

Allianz Stadium, Sydney, 7:35pm [AEDT]

Waratahs: Max Jorgensen, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Izaia Perese, Joey Walton, Triston Reilly, Tane Edmed, Jake Gordon; Langi Gleeson, Charlie Gamble, Ned Hanigan, Hugh Sinclair, Jed Holloway, Harry Johnson-Holmes, Mahe Vailanu, Angus Bell.

Replacements: Julian Heaven, Hayden Thompson-Stringer, Tom Ross, Miles Amatosero, Ferus-Lee Warner, Teddy Wilson, Harry Wilson, Mosese Tuipulotu.

Highlanders: Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Tanielu Tele'a, Sam Gilbert, Jona Nareki, Rhys Patchell, Folau Fakatava; Hugh Renton, Nikora Broughton, Tom Sanders, Max Hicks, Fabian Holland, Jermaine Ainsley, Henry Bell, Ethan de Groot

Replacements: Ricky Jackson, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Saula Ma'u, Sean Withy, Billy Harmon, James Arscott, Ajay Faleafaga, Jonah Lowe

Odds: [tab.com.au] Waratahs $1.62, -3.5 $1.87; Highlanders $2.20, +3.5 $1.87

Predictions: They were $8 outsiders against Crusaders, but yet again the Waratahs proved the red-and-blacks' bogey team on Australian soil as NSW produced probably their finest performance of the Darren Coleman era to buy their coach some breathing room. However, the coach really needs a win this week to raise his hopes of a contract extension. There is good news, too, for Coleman in some returning personnel with Izaia Perese back from a knock to the head and Ned Hanigan's strong contribution off the bench good enough to see him slot into the No. 6 jersey. The Highlanders, meanwhile, were right in their game against the Blues at Super Round, before the late first-half sin-binning of in-form fullback Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and some brilliance from Stephen Perofeta out of his own in-goal. Highlanders coach Clarke Dermody has had to discipline skipper Billy Harmon and Sean Withy this week after the duo were late to a team meeting, in what is far from the ideal build-up for the southerners. If the Waratahs can repeat their efforts from Super Round, they should be too strong for the Highlanders; but consistency has long been the challenge for NSW, which makes this match compelling viewing.

Tip: Waratahs by 10.

Saturday, March 9

Fijian Drua vs.

Crusaders

Churchill Park, Lautoka, 12:05pm [AEDT]

Drua: Ilaisa Droasese, Selestino Ravutaumada, Iosefo Masi, Apisalome Vota, Epeli Momo, Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, Frank Lomani, Meli Derenalagi, Vilive Miramira, Etonia Waqa, Ratu Leone Rotuisolia, Mesake Vocevoce, Jone Koroiduadua, Tevita Ikanivere, Haeriti Hetet.

Replacements: Mesulame Dolokoto, Livai Natave, Mesake Doge, Te Ahiwaru Cirikidaveta, Elia Canakaivata, Simione Kuruvoli, Kemu Valetini, Junior Ratuva

Crusaders: Chay Fihaki, Sevu Reece, Levi Aumua, David Havili, Manasa Mataele, Taha Kemara, Willi Heinz; Cullen Grace, Tom Christie, Dominic Gardiner, Quinten Strange, Scott Barrett, Fletcher Newell, George Bell, George Bower.

Replacements: Ioane Moananu, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Seb Calder, Jamie Hannah, Tahlor Cahill, Mitchell Drummond, Jone Rova, Riley Hohepa

Odds: [tab.com.au] Drua $2.92, +8.5 $1.87; Crusaders $1.38, -8.5 $1.87

Predictions: Hands up if you had these two teams as winless after two rounds? Well done if so, you're tipping is sounded than ours. As a result, this game is very nearly must win for both, or at least it is for the Drua who will likely need to win all of their home matches this season to again reach the playoffs. There will have been some serious soul-searching in the Crusaders camp this week meanwhile as they made a series of uncharacteristic mistakes and had their lineout routinely destroyed by a clever NSW pack. It's clear the Crusaders are without some frontline personnel through both injury and the long list of offseason departures, and perhaps a lack of experience is partly to blame for last week's failings. Coach Rob Penney has attempted to fix that by inserting veteran Willie Heinz in alongside rookie Taha Kemara in the halves while former Force flyer Manasa Mataele has found his way home to Christchurch and will start on the wing back in the country of his birth. This looks like another incredibly tight contest but it's hard to see the Crusaders losing three on the bounce to start the year, All Blacks Scott Barrett and David Havili must take charge to pilot the team through this tough challenge.

Tip: Crusaders by 3

ACT Brumbies vs.

Western Force

GIO Stadium, Canberra, 2:35pm [AEDT]

Brumbies: Tom Wright, Andy Muirhead, Len Ikitau, Tamati Tua, Corey Tooley, Noah Lolesio, Ryan Lonergan; Rob Valetini, Luke Reimer, Tom Hooper, Darcy Swain, Nick Frost, Sosefo Kautai, Lachlan Lonergan, James Slipper

Replacements: Billy Pollard, Blake Schoupp, Rhys Van Nek, Cadeyrn Neville, Jahrome Brown, Klayton Thorn, Declan Meredith, Ollie Sapsford

Force: Max Burey, Harry Potter, Bayley Kuenzle, Hamish Stewart, Chase Tiatia, Ben Donaldson, Nic White; Will Harris, Carlo Tizzano, Michael Wells, Jeremy Williams, Tom Franklin, Santiago Medrano, Tom Horton, Ryan Coxon.

Replacements: Feleti Kaitu'u, Charlie Hancock, Tiaan Tauakipulu, Tim Anstee, Lopeti Faifua, Ollie Callanb, Isaak Fines-Leleiwasa, George Poolman

Odds: [tab.com.au] Brumbies $1.09, -17.5 $1.87; Western Force $6.50, +17.5 $1.87

Predictions: Have you ever seen the Brumbies play as badly as they did against the Chiefs at Super Round? The two-time Super Rugby champions were, in a word, awful. Smashed up front and unwilling to make rudimentary tackles, the Brumbies got what they deserved in Melbourne. Luckily they have the ideal opportunity to prove that was merely an aberration, hosting a Force team that looks like it might have regressed rather than progressed since last year. The Force had built a winning position against the Rebels, only to capitulate completely and miss out even on a bonus point. They have however welcome back Bayley Kuenzle in the backline but Izack Rodda has suffered another setback and there is still no sign of Atu Moli in the front-row. Ben Donaldson has shown glimpses of his best form alongside Nic White, but there is a distinct lack of talent elsewhere around the Force squad and another disappointing season in the west is already underway. Look for the Brumbies to return to what they do best -- play territory and apply the squeeze at set-piece -- and for Corey Toole to add to his five tries through two games.

Tip: Brumbies by 15.

Hurricanes vs.

Blues

Sky Stadium, Wellington, 5:05pm [AEDT]

Hurricanes: Ruben Love, Josh Moorby, Billy Proctor, Riley Higgins, Kini Naholo, Brett Cameron, Cam Roigard; Braydon Iose, Peter Lakai, TK Howden, Isaia Walker-Leawere, James Tucker, Tyrel Lomax, Asafo Aumua, Tevita Mafileo

Replacements: James O'Reilly, Xavier Numia, Pasilio Tosi, Caleb Delany, Devan Flanders, TJ Perenara, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Salesi Rayasi

Blues: Zarn Sullivan, Mark Tele'a, Rieko Ioane, Harry Plummer, AJ Lam, Stephen Perofeta, Finlay Christie; Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali'i, Anton Segner, Cameron Suafoa, Laghlan McWhannell, Marcel Renata, Kurt Eklund, Joshua Fusitu'a

Replacements: Ricky Riccitelli, Jordan Lay, Angus Ta'avao, Josh Beehre, Hoskins Sotutu, Adrian Choat, Taufa Funaki, Cole Forbes

Odds: [tab.com.au] Hurricanes $2.20, +3.5 $1.85; Blues $1.62, +3.5 $1.90

Predictions: The clear game of the round, this clash between two of the competition's three unbeaten has all the ingredients for a classic. It may have taken the Hurricanes more than 85 minutes to find a way past the Reds, but the fact that they were willing to fight so deep into the contest suggests this is a squad united behind new coach Clark Laidlaw and one with the self-belief it can push for the title. Forwards Brayden Iose, Asafo Aumua and Peter Lakai have all made devastating starts to the season while Brett Cameron and Ruben Love seem to get better with every game they play at fly-half and fullback respectively. The Blues, meanwhile, showed plenty of fight of their own in recovering from a shaky start against the Highlanders to emerge comfortable winners, and they will be further boosted by the returns of All Blacks Rieko Ioane and Finlay Christie from resting duty. The Aucklanders won both of their games against the Hurricanes last year and are deserved favourites here, but there might just be something special building in Wellington, the heart of which looks to be in their talented back-row. It's also a big welcome back to TJ Perenara, who will pull on a Hurricanes jumper for the first time since 2022. It's good to have you back, TJ.

Tip: Hurricanes by 2.

Queensland Reds vs.

Chiefs

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 8:35pm [AEDT]

Reds: Jock Campbell, Suilasi Vunivalu, Josh Flook, Isaac Henry, Mac Grealy, Tom Lynagh, Tate McDermott; Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight, Liam Wright, Ryan Smith, Seru Uru, Zane Nonggorr, Matt Faessler, Sef Fa'agase.

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Peni Ravai, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Cormac Daly, John Bryant, Kalanai Thomas, Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, Tim Ryan

Chiefs: Josh Ioane, Shaun Stevenson, Daniel Rona, Rameka Poihipi, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Damian McKenzie, Cortez Ratima; Luke Jacobson (capt), Simon Parker, Samipeni Finau, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Tupou Vaa'i, George Dyer, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Aidan Ross

Replacements: Tyrone Thompson, Ollie Norris, Reuben O'Neill, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, Wallace Sititi, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Josh Jacomb, Anton Lienert-Brown

Odds: [tab.com.au] Reds $3.30, +9.5 $1.90; Chiefs $1.30, -9.5 $1.85

Predictions: The Reds must still be wondering how they lost last week's game against the Hurricanes, having emptied the tank completely and producing the kind of gutsy performance that did their reputation under new coach Les Kiss little damage. Still, that golden point defeat was exactly that, a loss, and they must now pick themselves up and go again. That won't be easy following the loss of both Jordan Petaia and Hunter Paisami to head knocks, their spots filled by Jock Campbell and Isaac Henry respectively, with Mac Grealy added to the wing. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were awesome against the Brumbies, producing the kind of all-round performance that reflects their standing as competition favourites. If they repeat that effort, largely built on a physicality the Brumbies could simply not match, then this looms as a tough night for Queensland. Coach Clayton McMillan has also looked to freshen his side up a touch, with Josh Ioane, Daniel Rona, Cortez Ratima and Simon Parker all earning starts, while hooker Samisoni Taukei'aho also returns to the run-on side.

Tip: Chiefs by 15.