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Only imperfect solutions in complicated Super Rugby planning

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For all Super Rugby Pacific's early season progress, the complexion of next year's competition remains the wound in need of urgent attention.

Through its first three rounds Super Rugby Pacific has exceeded all expectations to perform an admirable job distracting focus from its most pressing issue.

With its seamless rule tweaks to cater for free-flowing action, minimising stoppages and significantly diminishing the TMO influence, Super Rugby is leading the way from an on-field product perspective. Take note, World Rugby.

While it's a small sample size thus far the revival in sought-after competitiveness from the Australian teams, with the Waratahs upsetting the Crusaders and the Reds stunning the Chiefs, signals this year's competition could, finally, shake the scourge in predictability.

Long may that theme continue too.

All the while the Fijian Drua's home matches present scenes unmatched anywhere in the world game.

Yet just as the Southern Hemisphere's flagship domestic competition takes strides to reestablish a sense of progress and positivity, the overarching question of stability rears its head like a pulsing pimple on one's wedding day.

The plight of the Melbourne Rebels is inescapable this season. Despite threatening legal action against Rugby Australia, the Rebels appear destined for liquidation.

After an opening round blowout loss to the Brumbies, the Rebels responded to defeat the Force and Moana Pasifika. Off the field, though, $22 million in debt strongly suggests they will soon cease to exist.

The ugly legal battle between the Rebels and Rugby Australia will build to a crescendo in the coming weeks to the point it will overshadow the current competition. With the future of a club at stake, that's entirely understandable.

Super Rugby Pacific, though, needs a swift resolution. Not another prolonged black eye.

The draw for next year's competition must be finalised by the end of this season. And more importantly in this fraught financial climate, concrete formats must soon be presented to broadcasters as negotiations for 2026 and beyond begin behind closed doors.

Working on the assumption the Rebels are on borrowed time, and they will indeed collapse this season, contingency planning is underway.

Broadcast negotiations were always going to be the juncture at which change might occur. There is a desire among organisers to expand the competition further by attempting to tap into the United States, ahead of the 2031 World Cup there, and Japan, due to its financial lure.

The reality, though, is adding teams from those destinations comes with huge risk particularly when Super Rugby is only now, in the backdrop of such COVID upheaval, regaining a degree of credibility.

Super Rugby has a chequered history of parachuting in startup teams after being swayed by additional broadcast revenue. The Southern Kings and Sunwolves, the latter fast-tracked at short notice, are both dire examples of how to rapidly devalue your competition.

No one wants to reprise those dark days. These past failings cannot be repeated.

Consistent change, some forced, some not, has alienated many rugby fans in this part of the world which is why the likelihood of replacing Rebels is a highly delicate balancing act.

While it's been clear for at least five years Australia does not possess the financial resources or playing depth to sustain five teams, the process to establish a credible replacement will inevitably come with growing pains. And in an increasingly competitive sporting climate, patience is a commodity in short supply.

The Fijian Drua, having reached their maiden finals series last year, offer hope that competitiveness can be quickly attained. The Drua are, though, the exception to the rule.

Moana Pasifika joined Super Rugby two years ago, at the same stage as the Drua. While Moana's performances have dramatically improved under Tana Umaga this season, their travelling road show of home matches that made its way to Hamilton, where 400 odd people watched their loss to the Rebels last week, underpins the major challenges surrounding their future.

The success of the Drua is partly due to the team being backed by one nation. Their clear talent pathway has, in turn, directly benefited the national team. On this front, similarities can be drawn with Argentina's Jaguares, the favourites to return to Super Rugby should the Rebels fold.

The Jaguares are believed to have been offered an invitation to rejoin the competition -- after they were excluded due to COVID border restrictions four years ago -- in 2026.

The Rebels' demise has sparked the possibility the Jaguares re-entry could be brought forward in time to maintain a 12-team competition for next season. Yet even that scenario is imperfect.

Replacing a team from Melbourne with another from South America imposes much more financial pressure. In the post-COVID travel era there are no direct flights to Argentina from New Zealand and while the Jaguares made the final in their last Super Rugby season in 2019, their leading players are now scattered throughout the globe.

Eligibility for the national team linked directly to the Jaguares formed the fundamental pillar in the Jaguares' previous success. They were a national team masquerading as a Super Rugby opponent.

With no guarantees the eligibility criteria would be the same, the Jaguares would realistically need several years to regain a genuinely competitive foothold.

There is, however, no foolproof solution.

Alternatives include boxing on with an 11-team competition that is problematic from a draw perspective with bye weeks needing to be factored in -- or perhaps further reduction to 10 teams which threatens further turmoil for another side such as Moana.

In a saturated rugby climate, reduction latches onto the prevailing less-is-more theory. Fewer teams would increase overall competitiveness, too. The counterpoint, though, is the broadcaster's drive for content does not align with fewer games to screen each week.

Welcoming back the Jaguares, whether next year or in 2026, therefore appears the best option in another regrettable chapter in Super Rugby's fragmented quest for stability.