MELBOURNE, Australia -- It's hard to see how this Australian Open final won't be a classic. Rod Laver Arena has been the favorite hunting ground of six-time champ Novak Djokovic. But 17-time Slam winner Rafael Nadal has quite simply never looked better, stronger and, most importantly, fresher coming into a major hard-court final.
Nadal last beat Djokovic on a hard court in the 2013 US Open final. Since then, they have played seven times on this surface. The stats, you ask? Fourteen sets for Djokovic, none for Rafa. And only one set was closer than 6-4. Will this match will be any different?
Here are some keys to watch:
First serve
Rafa tinkered with his serve this past offseason. His backswing is a bit lower and longer, and it has helped him get more pop. It's also enabled him to be even more aggressive off his forehand on the first ball after the return. Nadal will need to continue his recent success in this area against the best returner in men's tennis if he wants to capture his second Aussie Open title.
Djokovic's serve has been as solid and reliable as ever throughout this tournament. Neither player will hit a lot of aces, but the direction on the first serve and backing up the second delivery will be key to this match. Djokovic is generally more effective off his second serve return, but Rafa, too, will look to capitalize on Djokovic's second serve. Follow the second-serve points closely, as always. This will be an important factor in Sunday's outcome.
Court positioning
Djokovic's ability to maintain better court positioning than Nadal is the main reason Djokovic leads their hard-court matchups 18-7. That's because his court coverage is just as good as Nadal's, and Djokovic's technique off both wings allows him to take balls earlier. Rafa has been playing more aggressively during this tournament, and it has paid huge dividends as he has absolutely steamrolled the opposition. Now comes the ultimate test, which is: Can he do it against an opponent who has dominated Down Under?
Something else to look for: Who can hurt the opponent early and often with down-the-line shots?
3. Their storied history
There is so much on the line here that it's difficult to know where to start. How about the obvious? If Rafa wins, he'll own 18 majors, just two away from Roger Federer's all-time record. And who would bet against Nadal at the French Open to move even closer to Federer?
If Novak wins, he'll have 15 Slams and will be in sole position of third all time, just two away from Nadal. And at that point, you'd have to think Djokovic would be on course to win another, possibly two more, Grand Slam titles this season.
Nadal has had his most devastating losses of his career at the Aussie Open. Injuries and fifth-set losses to both Djokovic and Federer in the final here must be fresh in his mind. The what-ifs have probably kept him up at night. Think about what a win here means in the overall race to be considered the GOAT.
Because of that fact, I believe that Rafa wants this so badly. He will absolutely empty the bucket to cross the line and hold this trophy for the second time, and in doing so, become the only male player in the Open era to hold every major title at least two times.
Prediction
No. 1 Novak Djokovic defeats Lucas Pouille in straight sets, 6-0, 6-2, 6-2, to advance to face Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open final.
Both players look like they're playing as well as ever. There seems to be every reason in the world to expect this final to be an absolute classic.
Seven years ago, they played a final in Melbourne that lasted nearly six hours, with Djokovic prevailing 7-5 in the fifth set. The conditions are quicker now, so don't expect this one to go as long, but expect it to be just as compelling. This time, it's Nadal who prevails 6-4 in the fifth.
I simply can't wait to see it.