U.S. Beats Australia, But Germany Inches Ahead In Our Women's World Cup Forecast
Check out FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup predictions. In its opening campaign Monday, the U.S. women’s national team (USWNT) did not exactly look like a team that -- heading into this tournament -- had the best chance of winning this year’s World Cup title. It had a 68 percent chance of defeating Australia going into Monday, but when the whistle blew to signal the start of the game, the USWNT looked jittery. The team resorted to long balls and the all-too-familiar direct style of American play, completing only 73 percent of its passes in the first half (compared with a 77 percent pass-completion rate in the friendlies leading up to the World Cup). Despite the shaky start, the Americans were up 1-0 after only 12 minutes, thanks to a nasty deflection of Megan Rapinoe’s shot off an Australian defender. The Matildas equalized in the 28th minute from a left-footed shot by captain Lisa De Vanna, and by the 60th minute, the game was still tied 1-1 -- right around the time that we said U.S. fans should start sweating as a draw starts to become the most likely outcome. But just one minute short of our 62nd-minute sweat-marker, Christen Press scored her first World Cup goal, and the U.S. finally began to settle down, completing 80 percent of their passes in the second half. The Americans went on…
