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Donte Moncrief in position for a breakout season with Colts

INDIANAPOLIS -- After firing the general manager, undertaking a youth movement on defense and seeing the franchise quarterback undergo shoulder surgery during the offseason, the Indianapolis Colts are finally set to open training camp.

The Colts will have their first practice Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Most pressure: Chuck Pagano. There was no certainty at the end of last season that the coach would be back. Owner Jim Irsay kept everybody in suspense for three weeks before announcing that general manager Ryan Grigson had been fired and that Pagano would stay on through at least 2017.

The Colts have gone 8-8 and missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, after reaching the postseason in the first three years under Pagano. He'll be evaluated throughout the season to see if he's the right coach going forward. Missing the playoffs for a third straight year and not continuing the development of the team’s young players likely won’t bode well for Pagano’s future.

Most to prove: Phillip Dorsett. I thought about going with left tackle Anthony Castonzo with this choice but decided on Dorsett, because there’s a good chance Castonzo will bounce back from what was a subpar 2016.

Everybody is waiting for Dorsett to become more than a one-dimensional receiver. That one dimension for the 2015 first-round pick is speed. Dorsett has to find other ways to get open when teams don’t let him beat them down the field.

The pressure is on Dorsett, who has 51 receptions for 753 yards and three touchdowns in his career. He has to fend off Kamar Aiken and Chester Rogers to keep his spot as the No. 3 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief.

Most important: Andrew Luck. Did you expect anybody else? For all the talk about the defensive players the Colts acquired in the offseason and the return of the core group of offensive linemen, Indianapolis will have a difficult time winning without Luck on the field.

The 27-year-old quarterback said there’s light at the end of the tunnel in his road to recovery from shoulder surgery. The next step for Luck is to get off the physically unable to perform list. If that happens at some point during training camp, there’s no need for the Colts to play him in the preseason. He’s too valuable to the franchise to take that risk after missing 10 games over the past two seasons. The goal is to have Luck on the field when the games count, starting with Week 1 at the Los Angeles Rams.

Sleeper player: Tarell Basham. Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson are two headliners in the Colts' rookie class. Keep an eye on Basham, the defensive lineman who was team’s third-round pick. The Colts are in desperate need for pass-rush help after finishing tied for 19th in the NFL in sacks, with 33, last season.

With Jabaal Sheard likely starting at outside linebacker, Basham will have to show he can be third-down, pass-rush specialist. That’s a possibility, particularly since he had 27 sacks during his four-year career at Ohio.

Player most likely to have a breakout season: Moncrief. The fourth-year pro has all the tools be the Colts’ best all-around receiver. He has size to go up and get the ball against defensive backs or use his body to catch passes in tight situations. He also has speed to get past defenses down the field. The 6-foot-2 Moncrief is one of the few receivers on the roster with any size, which makes him an ideal red zone target for Luck.

The key with Moncrief is staying healthy. He was a major tease last season, when he had a team-high seven touchdown receptions while only playing in nine games due to a shoulder injury that sidelined him on two separate occasions.

This also is a big season for Moncrief personally, because he’s in the final year of his rookie contract. Not staying healthy and having 307 receiving yards -- how his 2016 looked -- won’t earn Moncrief a large payday next offseason. He knows it too, which is why you can expect him to have a breakout season.